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'Conventional wisdom' of presidential races

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  • Description

    What holds true and what doesn't?

  • Duration 4:08
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That certainly you we're gonna talk to you about conventional wisdom what conventional wisdom tells us about this election or maybe what it doesn't but before we get to that.

What was the first presidential election that you covered.

And the -- vote that house a reporter doing 72 but I actually covered the race and some basics.

So you look back some of the races that you've seen.

Conventional wisdom vs -- conventional wisdom which ends up turning out right.

Well.

-- conventional wisdom has is often wrong.

But it can be very attractive when you're looking you know without knowing the outcome but I -- I'm thinking about to resemble the conventional wisdom has long been -- it's extremely difficult.

To unseating incumbent right but if you look at the list five elections in which an incumbent has been on the ballot.

The incumbents lost twice that's a significant number time so it's not unheard of and you know and -- -- is an advantage.

But it's also -- burden if your record isn't as strong and -- Obama is running with the burden of a weak economy.

And other unmet promises so it's a very mixed blessing if it's a blessing at all I thinking in this case.

It's not a it's that you know he's not gonna do as well he did four years ago when he was just an aspiring and challenger.

You -- talking among -- a few moments ago about the changes that we've seen over the last four years.

And one pointed out that the president's campaign has really been targeted -- groups of people rather than this big movements like it wasn't quote unquote rock star status.

-- -- -- -- -- And we were talking a little bit offset about this -- -- to get your thoughts on it of whether or not.

That makes this election really about small ideas not big ideas -- 2008 what that really means for Iraq's the American people.

Well -- the repairs and looking at from the Obama side he is basically.

Campaigning with the burden I describe.

And so his his team and he and his team designed to campaign.

Intended to get out every single voter they thought they could -- And they therefore did everything they could in the area in the issues that affect those voters.

Now obviously everybody's affected by the economy so you know improving economy would in the best possible thing but he didn't get that.

So what he did instead.

Was to reach out to these different groups with messages and -- certain acts you know he did something on immigration for example -- under.

Appeal to lose Hispanics and -- -- And that may work.

It's been difficult way to do it but.

You know they've been.

They've been working on this for a long time that Mitt Romney in the -- time is going to be the guy at the end at least is talking about to bigger things can tournament the future of the country he's talking about.

Change in the Obama used to be the change candidate.

So -- the room the roles -- to some extent.

Reversed going back on your experience covering different presidential campaigns are going to be sitting and watching with us tonight.

-- for election specialize at 6 PM what have you learned over the years when you're watching the election results come down is great tips that you can give her well -- First thing we learned painfully some years ago with beware of the early exit poll numbers.

There were terribly often 04.

And I remember so vividly I was anchoring that night -- know for and we went down with a meeting at 515 in the afternoon when the first cut of the exit polls would come in.

The world sitting around the table listening for John Gorman who was -- group -- of our polling operation time.

And he looked at the exit poll numbers and he said the undecideds.

Have have have broken.

For John Kerry and it looks like he's won the election and we notice that the sample of -- it looked like.

There were we warm winning women than you would think would be proportionate to men and and we raise those questions and he said even.

If this evens out as we get more returns and it won't be enough.

But it was wrong.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- good place -- and we have a lot of make up right at night in and I'll try to get makeup it's just not a good though I think it just doesn't go my hair.

It's -- that that doesn't as a hot off.

And that's a good thing I keep keep everything act training -- intense patience is the best absolutely in this -- Britain is happy Thanksgiving and happy New York by the -- -- CBS John.

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