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Weighing impact of party momentum on Election Day

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    Which way are voters swaying?

  • Duration 3:59
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Are just hours away from getting the first results in a White House race where the candidates are running neck and neck.

And a final push could make all the difference let's take a fair and balanced approach to seeing who had the momentum leading up to Election Day Simon Rosenberg is the president.

And a former advisor to the Clinton Campaign.

Match -- is a former White House political director under president George W.

Bush.

It's all about momentum.

Simon who has it.

Well I think Barack Obama does you know you look at the polls -- last few days I mean there's looks like there's been a slight shift to him.

Mean Gallup -- news and ABC Washington Post you all have the race moving three to four points in his direction.

He was already doing well in the Electoral College so I mean I think Democrats are confident turnout.

Has been up today -- -- people feel like a lot of folks are voting which is good for the Democrats there's been a lot of early votes so you know we going to go into Election Day feeling good.

Wait a minute I thought the traditionally Republicans tend to turn out in in in bigger numbers on Election Day Matt what about that -- turnout is big today is that good for Democrats or Republicans.

I think you're gonna see a big get out the vote effort from Republicans and -- to have great numbers.

-- even on the early -- John which Democrats have tended to dominate.

This Republican team has really done a much better job having -- democratic advantage in states.

Like Ohio so I think what we're gonna see -- today is a great Republican -- I think we can make it simple.

For your viewers that there's been a lot of talk about the polls and the numbers in the demographics in the samples.

Is gonna come down to Ohio we're gonna know whether or not whether or not each of these candidates gets to that needed 270 room starts he does returns come in Ohio.

And that's something different happens with that with a Republican slip in Virginia which we don't anticipate.

Well it in Florida Simon for instance the democratic advantage in early voting is supposed to be down 70%.

From 2008.

That doesn't sound like you know an enthusiastic raring to go kind of party.

But there's already been four and a half million as you heard from your previous guess there's been record.

Voter early vote in Florida and that they expect the highest vote ever in the history of Florida today.

I think a good turnout is good for the country -- and I think we will I think will win the election today.

And Barack Obama get reelected but I think the good news is is that -- the reforms of the electoral system that's allow people who vote.

Earlier than Election Day is working people are voting in very large numbers that -- voted as high turnout today.

And -- good for the country we feel that going to election day of Barack Obama was up a half point a point given the superiority of our ground game.

That we wouldn't you know when this thing on the ground today I think Democrats feel good.

That's the that's perhaps the key mad Democrats say that they have done a much better job they -- -- -- a better ground game and in places like Ohio.

Barack Obama has more campaign office is ready to make those phone calls and get people to the polls what do you think.

John that's kind of a vanity statistic we can all run out there about how many -- paid employees are paid staff -- offices what comes down to use the numbers and what.

The Republican team has put together this cycle rivals what we did -- -- and Simon and others have.

We're really complimentary of the efforts in 2004.

And what they have done is they've taken the numbers that Obama put up on the early vote in 2008.

In an in more than have them and in this is the key thing John.

The Republicans who -- voting in the independents who are voting.

For governor Romney are less frequent voters.

Andy and the Democrat voters that are voting in the early voter voters that vote every times in other words they're getting there easy vote out whereas we're getting more difficult vote out.

And on Election Day.

We have a whole bag of voters that always vote that haven't voted already -- -- -- that's why we're gonna see big numbers and a lot of these swing states like Ohio.

All right two questions apiece were keeping a fair and balanced design and Rosenberg -- lap.

Thank you both.

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