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Fox News alert on a White House race for the ages -- review a polling data now suggesting.
The contest between President Obama and governor Romney.
Is the closest presidential race in almost eighty years.
Welcome to Election Day 2012 right here on America's election headquarters I'm Megyn Kelly thank you for being here with us.
After four nationally televised debates nearly a billion dollars spent on ads and at least 170 million phone calls and knocks on doors.
Millions of Americans are heading to the polls.
As they do.
Each camp doing what they can to keep their supporters voting and believing.
Well governor Mitt Romney holds a pair of eleventh hour rallies in Ohio and Pennsylvania his team releases some internal polling concerning some key battleground states.
This while the president's team is holed up in Chicago and his deputy campaign manager has a new message for supporters telling them.
No matter what they first hear about voter turnout and exit polls.
-- our allies are Fox News digital.
Sam foxnews.com life and I do want to say that the vice president is also campaigning today in Ohio it is not just team Romney.
Now I know that comes from not campaign operative him but you tell me that sounds like good advice for both sides as well as we start to get trickles of exit poll data.
There is in great tendency on Election Day is for people to over interpret what they're seeing for data to be over interpreted in too much significance put in things early in the day.
You know somebody says -- my cousin just we -- from Virginia that he saw a long line here and people make too much out of things that are real.
And what -- cutter is saying to her folks there what the Democrats are saying to their folks is more important because they're predicting a big win.
They're predicting they've got this they have been supremely confident the -- people say we can do it what the amount of people say as we got this never gonna happen for this Joker.
And what is going to be difficult for them.
Is that when it stops looking that way because this is -- so impossibly close the Democrats might freak out.
What makes you so this so certain that this is going to be so close.
Well it's never been this close this is what -- this in what were -- this for rightward down to the wire.
Even in 2000 the closest election in recent political history you saw president was soon to be president George W.
Carrying a two point lead in the polls he was coming -- he was losing some trajectory but he was coming in with a -- -- This is a deadlock this is within a point and it's fantastic to see but it does make people very anxious.
Here's the thing that.
And in my my take away and looking at all -- -- so far while President Obama does have a narrow lead in some of these key battleground states in particular.
Most of those poll shows significant sampling of Democrats -- plus seven.
And that's how the electorate wound up looking -- -- Dallas final poll predicted it would be -- plus set putt plus eleven it wound up being -- plus seven even this time around.
Gallup did that 9000 person survey that says the country is -- plus three.
Our cluster that there's -- a fifteen point swing in this country.
From from dams plus you know whatever was and now it's a Republican favorite so how are we going to these polls I would trust these polls are saying -- plus seven -- -- -- Well remember what the polls say is not necessarily predictive of what the electorate looks like today -- -- may be predictive of what folks at home are saying but what counts is who goes to vote.
Now we know about likely voters and in most of these -- that's like Gallup is different than the rest Gallup has a very tight screened.
-- likelihood -- voters you have to answer several questions to be classified as a likely voter by Gallup.
Most of these -- are you gonna vote yes OK he's a likely voter.
In the mix he goes what is constituted.
And it at the polls today and in the final vote.
May be very different than those -- that doesn't mean that the polls are wrong.
It just means they may not be predicting.
Us and it went Britney was saying earlier that you that you may have an unenthusiastic.
-- but as long as you -- -- -- don't -- -- but I wanna talk to you about because you're part of the Fox News decision desk and you know we joke about it but it's a serious responsibility and I mean this isn't at this is a man a lot of Americans now watching this so closely so many millions of Americans care deeply about what's gonna happen tonight.
Walk us through what what the evening is going to be like for you as the data -- -- Well and I think this is important for you -- telling America this story.
I think it's important for folks at home to remember this early in the night we're gonna get these exit polls were -- starting at about 5 o'clock examples are gonna -- That's not gonna tell us too much about how the elections gonna turn out in the horse race number.
But it's gonna tell us who's in the electorate and especially for the president.
Is he scoring the kinds of numbers that he needs among key demographic groups among Hispanic voters among women voters among all of these things.
And what does the electorate look like.
We know the -- exit polls traditionally.
Skew towards Democrats because Republicans are less likely for whatever social psychological reasons to participate in exit.
Poll that's been proven that Republicans tend not to speak is much to the exit collects this is this this is what history tells us and then it's also holds true tuition lesser degree.
And telephone poles that are conducted before elections Republicans generally do better than the polls say John McCain did.
A point one point one better than he did in them in the polls before the election so.
But that's gonna give us a picture and we're gonna start to be able to forecast what the makeup of the election of the electorate is and whether the president's -- where he needs to be.
What time -- do you think we're actually gonna have some real numbers some real state -- soft for the viewers really start at 6 PM eastern but what's that we're really gonna be -- on the 7 o'clock 7 o'clock -- states that we can call there's the state.
Chinese state people care about.
Old now Megan don't who do you care who we weren't enough pressure today you can't you can't ratcheted up we promise you will be the first we we will not hold back and and those guys do a great -- -- -- -- Hi Chris thanks so much you bet like a -- -- committee it's been great having he's insensitive valuable addition to our programming.
-- throughout this election cycle be great to have him here tonight.
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