Power Play 11/6/12
Election Day big picture, House balance of power, and Democrats supreme confidence.
- Duration 27:09
- Date Nov 6, 2012
Election Day big picture, House balance of power, and Democrats supreme confidence.
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-- is Willard M Romney and his wife and the going to go vote in their home state of Massachusetts just outside of Boston and there on the other side you see Barack Obama and Michelle Obama the president and First Lady.
Complaining from Air Force One in Chicago where they will spend election night.
And this is power play.
And the president and First Lady and I'm Chris are -- I should point out and we are I should also point out in New York in the mother ship on the fourteenth floor.
Here on the avenue of the Americas and we're having a good time.
On Election Day.
Now the president and the First Lady are going to stay out of public view substantially today they're going to be in Chicago I believe at the Fairmont Hotel.
But Mitt Romney who said he feels a little.
Restless energy wants to get out and make one more battleground -- he's going to Ohio and of course.
The unions -- capital of the world Pittsburgh Pennsylvania.
So what the heck is going to happen we've spent all this time all this money and all of this effort to get to this point it seemed like it would never arrive.
But somebody who knows.
How things are going to shape up.
He's not gonna tell us now because he doesn't want to ruin the suspense for later is Chris Wallace he is the host of FOX News Sunday with Chris Wallace he's generous colleague and he is in New York.
Where you are in charge of -- rallying the space cowboys Karl Rove and Joseph Trippi tonight welcome.
Kress that's right you know first of all just looking at that picture of Obama and Romney coming down -- you know.
It must take something special to be a politician because in 24 hours one of those guys is going to be the next president of the United States.
And the other one's going to be out of a job right and and boy talk about -- -- zero sum game which parent one guy wins and the other guy loses.
Most of us don't live and lead our lives that way and it's quite extraordinary to think coming and let's take the case of Romney Romney will either be the 45 president of the United States.
Or he will join a long line of failed candidates.
Who -- spend the rest of their life.
We're -- and you know they they they once that I African who was that was Walter Mondale went to George McGovern.
To -- democratic candidates and said.
You know how long did it take you to stop.
Bemoaning your loss -- -- -- when I when I figured it out I'll tell you.
You know that was twelve years after Mondale have lost that's -- that's a tough game for these guys it's.
It's a tough game and it's also tough for Romney because of course his father he running it had his own missed expectations in 2008.
For the Republican nomination and his father came up short of the Republican nomination in 1968 so.
You know -- -- but having said that I I would say it's going to be just as tough.
For Obama if he loses -- tougher -- -- you look at history and and and history -- and historians tend to judge.
One term presidents and a very negative way whether it's Jerry Ford really never had a term.
Or George H.
We're Jimmy Carter it to a certain degree if you wanna be seen as as -- all of successful president.
You have to win reelection.
James poll may be the only successful -- president nice.
But but so and so I mean for Obama and -- -- -- Romney wins the first thing he's gonna do is he's well old.
Is he's gonna repeal obamacare -- with a signature piece of legislation that thing that would.
And shore Obama's place in history so it -- there's a lot -- on this for Barack Obama to.
Now as we seed.
Polls today we see the final snapshot.
It's never been this close in modern political -- who never gone into the last day of the elect -- such small margin even in 2000.
We're George W.
Bush was up two points in the final track of polls as they came in this is let inside of one point this is so far inside the margin of error on the average of polls.
Does this mean necessarily that we're gonna have a very late night tonight.
Not necessarily a minute you know you you I can write -- this scenario I mean.
The one nice thing about today and then let me give you -- might not and I think this is true for most political reporters Election Day -- my least favorite day this is basically nothing to do.
Until about 530 tonight we will get our first.
Wave of exit polls -- exit polls haven't always been reliable so that doesn't necessarily tell you all that much but at least it's something.
To -- over but for the Reno for that from now until then we're just sat around and and we don't really have all that much.
To do and is not all that much the process.
I can -- a scenario where.
Where Romney either loses Virginia loses Florida I think and the fact.
We wouldn't say it but in effect it would be game -- I don't see how we possibly -- This is seventy without at least winning.
Florida and and Virginia -- -- if suddenly we look and Pennsylvania.
Right is on the board early.
And I'm talking -- early closing states.
I think Obama isn't in terrible trouble so so I mean.
-- I can write a scenario where it goes on and and maybe we don't even know until tomorrow morning because they're -- -- literally counting ballots and Hamilton County in Ohio but I could -- at this is an area where we basically know whether we're able to formally -- or not.
By 8 or 9 o'clock tonight.
-- I like it that would make our work on the decision to -- a lot easier we would do that would be good so go ahead and go ahead and come in nice and early state shall take the pressure off of us.
That one of the things Chris that we see is that.
-- happen in the process of having an election that is very close the numbers are very close but we could seizure talking about here and electoral count.
That is of wide swing that it would be possible to have a substantial electoral vote victory for either of these guys shots.
-- you can certainly run a scenario where either of them ends up with or not that that's a huge victory right but over 300 electoral votes to seventy needed to win.
And and the margins and I also think you know I really can write a scenario.
Where Romney wins the popular vote Obama wins the electoral vote.
Especially with hurricane sandy which that is gonna have to -- yeah turn out and voting for Obama -- -- reliably blue states of New Jersey -- New York.
So you don't while he'll win them both he might not win the by the same margins as he has.
As he would have because of the fact a lot of people just either won't vote.
Because they can't figure out her figure it's just not worth the trouble.
Right now give us some inside -- when you and -- and -- Do you guys have any pregame ritual do you guys have today as there isn't anything that you guys had -- Secret intent nations -- I can't share that with viewer I'd be thrown out it's like -- bombs as secret society and ya know -- -- one of the things will be doing -- got it together today is will start talking about.
Are when we want to talk about 6 o'clock at night.
When we want to talk about 7 o'clock at night and you know let's what counties are -- going to be looking -- in Virginia for instance and two key counties in Virginia are often the in the northern part of the state Loudon and that's -- -- to exert -- counties Obama took them in 2008.
Think -- generally go Republican they went for for bush in 2004.
So those will be -- -- to be looking out and obviously they're a whole bunch and Ohio at 730 to to be looking.
It's going to be good it's going to be good fun and you will always viewed as always you won't make it fun for everybody well I got -- message because here's 1 thing that I am I got a site.
I think we're fairly knowledgeable of the politics but when I sit down with Joseph Trippi and Karl Rove.
I realize that we really know nothing and that there way out of of crunching these numbers and reading things into them.
I don't mean like making things up and reading and understanding what they say about the make up I mean Karl Rove with the back of an envelope and smarter.
With all due respect of all the computers and I would say even the decisions that.
Well it I mean we're glad we we haven't wanted to feel the primaries before you guys call that who -- actually as one.
Well we sometimes know -- from there isn't such a thing mr.
-- noble but not callable.
I understand that we really live and that margin you live in them -- the space cowboys are out there on the front here on the -- And we appreciate you standing in the breach for us -- you -- are right Internet we've got to go.
-- little break just a little break because when we come back.
Instead of Chris Wallace you'll see Kirsten Powers and -- will talk about where we're right up well I wasn't gonna -- you did.
-- guy cares who will be here we'll talk -- Democrats are super confident today they are hyped up they say they've got this thing in the bag.
How much of that it's been how much of that is reality.
We'll talk about it with her when we come back so stick around.
I still feel really good about where we are IE you know if you look at that nine battleground states that we've been fighting over for you know six months.
We have and ability to win all nine of those states tonight.
None of those states have been put away on the Romney side.
Robert Gibbs who's hanging out with president -- bombing his former white house Press Secretary and senior communications advisor.
Who is -- now making real money on FOX & Friends this morning.
Saying that not only the president momma gonna win but he might win and all nine of the real tossup missed tossup states.
And that would be a bold -- because then you'd be talking about a 400 electoral vote or so victory.
That's that's a lot of talk that is a lot of talk right there can they are.
What is the calculation in doing that how does -- match up with reality.
-- powers she is a columnist for the Daily Beast -- guess this is accurate.
You can read it there after you're done reading everything at foxnews.com.
And she is of course Fox News contributor because you'll see her -- know that that is true because you'll see her tonight.
And then making it happen with Brit and all the boys out there you'll be -- on your own level playing with the boys and I and you are of course.
A very much of the blue team a Democrat in good standing.
And I'm a Democrat.
That's -- the stand that varies from day today defending god.
It but it but I was just about SA one of the things that we like.
About you so much the Internet likes about you.
Is that you are not -- obsessed now.
You are never I'm a woman of the left which you do not -- The.
I don't I have put -- statements fan but I really like I -- I think a lot of people think that I'm saying that I think Obama's gonna win as I have this desire to see the Democrat went.
I really I this is what I really think it's not and in if I'm wrong I'm wrong I mean that's the way this is just looking at things and -- and that that that's my best -- I wouldn't not a prediction.
My best -- -- I don't I think there's so many unknowns.
Tonight that I don't know that anybody who really can make a real prediction.
And races this close yeah it's never been this close going in the polls have never been -- we usually know -- right we knew -- -- I was gonna Landis doesn't it.
You know I know we knew -- insects are we to.
We we could have gift we could out of there wasn't a lot of it was Mara what how was he gonna win was the question and I think tonight.
That's my best gas supply it.
I could be totally wrong I don't think I would have said that in 2000 meadow and has said that he's gonna -- you know definitely.
So here's the -- is that.
If in fact so John McCain.
Outperform the closing date polls.
By about a point one appointment tent -- who Republicans generally outperform polls.
The president is leading.
In our last track we're looking at like seven tenths of a point right.
If history repeats itself -- -- the Republican win wouldn't.
You -- it unless you believe though the Obama campaign says -- and I and our enemy and I.
I always take what campaigns say with a -- -- so I took when I say Obama camp and I tend to mean.
People I know well who are close of the campaign and that knowledge of things and -- spinners for say.
Who really maintain that they have started they started.
Did day after Obama Weinberg building.
-- this turnout operation that's micro targeted that they believe adds about two points to every call so that -- so.
So that they don't they really think that they're gonna do outperformed the -- -- Yeah that actually winds kick it could give them a couple points said I think that that's why Democrats are feeling so confident now we may find out that that was totally wrong you know that they this is the first time they're testing this machine and it's not.
Gonna turn out the way that they think it's gonna turn out but -- about it and I think that's why people are so confident.
Interest -- centrist and two point.
All right so when you watch tonight what states -- you and what which and obviously we stipulate Ohio Ohio you are not allowed to say Ohio -- What are your why -- an early we're gonna.
That the states that in the the most and -- Pennsylvania and Virginia should -- I mean of course you know Florida if if somehow Obama wants Florida and I think we've probably now.
Which way tonight is going but.
That that one I could easily see going to Romney.
So so Florida's Iran mean I don't I don't want you can disagree I don't let it tells us a lot.
No I don't and I write that -- is Pennsylvania and -- out and this is a good thing to remember our Internet this is that would let's take a moment to explain this -- -- -- As you watch the election tonight.
Starting at seven when the polls start to close the first three leading indicators will be Florida.
-- for the first four will be Florida North Carolina Virginia -- Pennsylvania yeah.
Mitt Romney has to win essentially has to win.
The three southern states he's got to win Florida because -- -- not electoral vote that he could split North Carolina Virginia but it was his track could get a lot tougher if he didn't win Virginia.
Right but certainly needs North Carolina for Obama.
If Pennsylvania it's the and it's not even about winning right it's about if it's even close to because when I see -- close.
They don't know what's gonna happen right people who if Obama loses Pennsylvania then all bets are off a -- -- and we are delighted looking at probably Obama losing yet so -- -- and I think he out Romney is expected to my North Carolina even though it's a toss -- so if he doesn't -- it again.
That's bad -- just I don't know I mean.
Yeah I guess he has to when Virginia Beach and he's right -- I think there are ways he can get there without but Catalina very very hard.
And I think this is the other is and I feel like more confident about a bomb is that of all Obama has to do is.
OK so they'll gullible obviously win you know Ron is -- went on the McCain states.
You know a -- when you look at the tossup states.
Romney has to win all these states of Obama's already wine and he really -- an almost every scenario he's got to win.
About five states five tossup states that I think -- -- right now are are that Obama has already.
One in previously.
To -- should do it Mitt Romney has to win back.
Six is to win six states that went democratic right.
The last time Aqua and the most likely track and into this is most likely scenario beat Indiana.
Virginia North Carolina Florida Ohio plus want yeah plus anyone know Barack except.
I think -- I don't I feel like that's a pretty heavy left I don't I you know I I don't think that that's.
I don't think people swing that much when they like to the president the way they elect the president I know his electability numbers have come down.
But he beats you they still fundamentally like him and I think that with those numbers -- -- come up with the economy that people felt attending may be in the right direction.
I think that's a lot I think that's a pretty big deal for -- -- to be able to flip those states.
Just to stimulate the Internet disagrees with -- -- I think -- Internet disagree with you mix.
Big jet pilot says.
My analysis Romney landslide battleground state average.
Four -- set it.
Four point seven points says in in the battleground average you know it's great now is that -- people can actually keeps.
Or because of Twitter it's actually around people actually do that stuff but -- they -- that we talk I think we've talked about missiles and it is just.
This whole argument over the weighting of the polls -- I.
Disagree with me if this is what if you don't think this is right -- that what Democrats would say is.
That the reason they're seeing it scene like there over sampling.
Democrats is that the polls don't ask for what your registered -- they ask you what you identified that's correct so what happens is it in 2010.
As you got closer to the election.
He started seeing more Republicans in the polls because independents started to identify as Republicans because they identify with who they're voting for us they may not actually be Republican -- -- So they start to identify you start seeing more Republican showing up and that of -- an indicator.
Of what's coming correct so that would be the same argument -- -- independents are starting to identify.
As Democrats because -- gonna vote for Obama and so then it seems like there's there's over sampling Democrats I'm.
You write that down and I don't know -- -- so what you say is exactly right by and large the polls that are conducted public polling that's conducted.
Doesn't this go out to find the right number of people.
-- respective parties what they do is take a sample of a thousand people and as long as they're likely voters whatever party they identify with that's what goes into it right but.
And this is due caveat to -- Republicans -- polls and general that's the general rule of thumb.
And so when you see Democrats plus six on Republicans in a poll.
That doesn't necessarily mean that it's -- -- that's exactly what -- -- elect -- look like because Republicans are more.
Should historically speaking.
But you green your good Z because -- no -- presidents are -- right does not -- there are over because I think does not a lot of the viewers think is happening.
Is that they're going out at the pollsters and making and that there and then -- sampling.
Six points more -- Democrats the Republicans and what I'm doing my masters how what's happening -- train -- yeah.
-- -- Internet knows that we've talked that this you can.
We have not we've not allowed that falsehoods.
To persist and the only thing we point out is that it is not predictive.
What the make up the composition of the electorate will be on Election Day it's the composition of who they called it out.
But this is how they've always done the polls -- right so I'm in the polls have been pretty project I mean they were predictive.
That in 2000 time they're very active in 2008 but why would they suddenly not just -- and they show you this you Democrat but generally don't -- -- -- right right so why would they suddenly mean not -- I guess as I I'm really just trying to understand that I know people are really obsessed with us and I I've not seen why we're supposed to find these holes on customers are.
-- well it's not that they're selling trustworthy it's that the race is so close.
I figure the book that Romney will be.
The polls by -- point that's that's what I figures that they'll do appoint better he's -- now.
Here's some parents we thank you very much have fun tonight don't don't let Brett cause any trouble.
Hey I you know why that's too big of a job that's -- -- -- read it about it.
-- -- -- Okay.
-- we thank you very much think -- to take a very quick break and infinitesimal these small break.
But while we do that you can think about the fact that tonight.
You can watch right here on foxnews.com.
Jonathan Hunt richt pulled out Harris Faulkner.
The whole -- gang of guys and gals will be there with great election coverage contributors and all of that stuff.
And you could have we -- to call here.
In multi screen experience and -- -- You get every tablet that you could have the television -- you can have your laptop up on your mobile phone we will be there everywhere will be stalking.
You'll be you'll be like hey get away from the Fox News.
Because we're everywhere we're all over the case -- -- were gonna take a quick break but when we come back we'll talk about or Republicans they may be their best chance to take a blue state.
And make it breadth and that's Colorado and we'll also talk about composition of the house.
Do all that when we come back so stick around.
If it -- picked up 65 seats from the Democrats in the last cycle.
The most of any one party since 1938.
Saw the -- -- a -- about Macy's we're gonna lose 51015.
But I've never been -- marvelous idea that we had to lose seats from whoever I give -- make -- removes non.
Bold words there are from John Boehner he's -- speaker of the house.
-- -- -- from Ohio where they do politics out there to talk about our friend Bill Hemmer.
-- saying his -- -- to lose no seats cannot give back any.
Of the gains from forty tent but of course he's gonna say that he's got to say that because otherwise his members would say wait a by the one -- -- think's gonna lose they'd be mad at the boss.
So what's the real picture on what the Republican situation is let's talk to Paul Lindsay.
He is the communications.
Chairmen are you the chairman communications chairman Paul does that is that what this says.
I think he just gave me an upgrade their Chris OK did you stricter but -- -- coming whatever you say it's as ready as chairman you should just start telling people you're the chairman but you're the -- communications director for the national.
Republican Mitt campaign committee is that so.
Correct -- -- so you are on the red team here's a question Democrats say.
They -- They were they talked once upon a time -- plan to retake the house.
Now they acknowledge that that's not gonna happen but they say they're gonna get a goodly number of those -- -- given point five seat majority in the house they say they're gonna get some of those seats back.
How many are you gonna give up.
Well look I think you heard from speaker Boehner I mean the fact that we're even in a scenario now where we're talking about the possibility of Republicans picking up seats in the house.
Says a lot about the current political environment.
But it also says a lot about the strategy that we mapped out at the beginning of this cycle under the direction of speaker Boehner -- chairman Pete Sessions.
To go on offense against Democrats in Democrat held territory.
And now -- we've continued to do that and it's the reason why you're seeing such competitive races.
In states like Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut.
And also against Democrats in states like Kentucky North Carolina and Georgia.
We made a concerted effort to go back -- pick up where we left off in 2010.
And to make sure that we were holding Democrats accountable and so many of these seats and I think that's a result of why you're seeing.
A lot of these are race is close towards the end of the Election Day.
All month fearless forecast -- fearless forecast.
What will be Republican majority look like it's it's too late now -- Election Day.
It's too late now what is the composition of the -- going to be after today I don't.
Think he will be much different than it is today and I think again I think that says a lot about the political environment.
And it says a lot about what we've done to put these campaigns in place but -- -- ultimately.
The Democrats and -- started when they re elected Nancy Pelosi leader.
After the 2010 election I think it was an indication that they didn't hear the message that that -- sent in 2010.
Against the massive government growth -- house Democrats were.
We're out pursuing during -- first two years in the Obama presidency.
And ultimately I think that was ultimately -- -- -- at the end of the day.
Paul Lindsay we thank you very much you have a great election night Chris you do watching we'll be watching -- -- reading the numbers but you know what I mean.
All right so let's talk to one of those Republican House members.
-- because not only.
Is he trying to get himself reelected.
But he'd also like to see that guy Mitt Romney.
When the presidency in his state of Colorado congressman Scott Tipton joins us via Skype Internet on Internet.
Congressman welcome back.
-- -- certainly -- -- okay so the Republicans your team says Colorado.
Is beyond Ohio -- they definitely want Ohio but that they say your state.
Is the one that could be the key the key flip of the seven other swing states that we could bring this election home for Mitt Romney for you guys gonna do that.
You know we bleed blue well I think really looking Colorado.
Omega forecasts and I think they were going to be able -- -- we're at about four or five points for.
So we're very optimistic we're seeing great crowds turned out great enthusiasm.
In my district we had standing -- -- at every you.
Governor Romney and congressman -- and our district.
Have they given you enough attention you feel like -- -- -- Romney campaign has has paid enough attention Colorado -- in the mayor good bit.
I don't you know they have you know I know my congressional district today governor Romney and twice.
Paul Ryan has -- -- our district I think that at least four times.
So we have a lot of attention coming into the district and I think we're great no -- -- for the entire country.
I'll -- it was a very independent state.
We -- seeing right now that is seen continued I am permanent or economic challenges and opportunity to be able to get jobs created right here by developing -- energy resources.
And I think the voters -- -- responding to the message burgeoning.
Scott -- -- is -- congressman is also working hard to get Mitt Romney elected congressman we thank you.
Thanks Chris Chris do you -- to be with you David -- wants to know Chris are you okay you look very tired today take care.
Releasing tomorrow if you think this is bad when you see me tomorrow it's going to be -- total mess it's going to be an absolute.
Fans has -- Gloria up here.
But that's all we can do it's all we can do is give you the utmost for our -- -- Internet but we thank you for your concern.
Now let us have some power points.
You may get you -- -- Internet -- survived the and here's your first PowerPoint.
Ever worst election ever -- -- six billion dollars intensely negative awful awful awful.
And I would if I could say and its attitude of high minded regret.
Unbecoming of a nation so grand as this one.
So I'll say that -- But.
Here's point two.
Million brave souls human beings.
Of the hot between 120 and maybe a 135.
Million human beings.
Over the last month and through today will have cast ballots in this country.
That's pretty good it's not the kind of turnout that you might see in a country that was more politically active or paying closer attention.
But that's a lot of brave souls to go out there and whether a toxic political environment and do that.
And so good for you and here's the third PowerPoint I wanna I wanna say this and that should go for the record.
The system didn't break we heard a lot of talk about how new spending from super pacs and outside groups and everything was gonna change -- and neither candidate accepted limit.
On their campaign spending and yes the ads were -- But the system didn't break it may have been an unworthy election of the republic so grand its best.
But we made it we got through now we'll see how the recount goes.