Special Report Online: 11/7/12

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I.

Now we're back and -- as -- We were talking about to the breakdown and would have Lou just asked me about it you know about the all along every -- -- -- would come out that showed Democrats with a partisan advantage of oh I don't know 5678.

People would say that's ridiculous they were up seven and 2008 how can they possibly -- electric possibly be as democratic.

This year when the enthusiasm is gone the thrill is gone.

But they got their voters -- and it was point six that's one point less democratic than it -- in 2012 I think that.

This is the biggest story for me of this election just that the Obama campaign.

Took a spontaneous movement in twenty in 2008 collected all those millions of email addresses built on that used.

The -- data mining and micro targeting -- all sorts of techniques drawn from business.

And they got their vote out they made a mature movement amateur movement doesn't need organic enthusiasm it just goes out that sort of -- -- a political machine does.

And they created one night and other Republicans have to try to keep catch up.

On your hand if you just look at the actual numbers of voters -- percentage the Obama -- down quite -- -- for -- to -- And and so still they go to Chad enough to win again kind of an -- and actually you told -- going to talk today I don't know through the final laps and Costello you know billions from if it's closer to ask you talk about -- Obama to get ten million fewer votes and tell you doesn't it we got.

About seventy million.

Thank you think that it had about sixty this time I would have said well that is the kind of decline we're expecting is that seventy million to sixty million that is what about the people I -- -- honorable.

All the talk about how Romney so much better candidate -- McCain in this year the Republicans are -- Seems that you have gotten your vote if McCain that -- -- -- that's just for me is the Republican side in a way.

This more shocking if you tell me the president Obama's team is good enough to keep sixty this -- votes I wouldn't have been surprised.

Santa Barbara Dave says President Obama can't blame President Bush now.

Heard me talking about that example may be about people saying.

That its President Bush's economy still I mean we are heading now into a second.

President Obama term where people still think the economy is George W.

Bush is it done.

-- we need to know the president MRI has testified history.

By getting reelected.

With an unpopular agenda health care last night was 5050.

A stimulus program a majority of Americans see as a failure.

It in seven point 9% unemployment this is really something only foreign tan.

Exit polls you know they're -- but maybe we can't really rely on them to tonight -- four in ten voters were saying you know that that.

That the economy was getting better six in ten voters saying now.

The president somehow has convinced the country enough Americans not his real base but other voters.

To sign up for the next four years to give him more time.

And it must be a feeling and I I believe pursuing in the swing states that it's just not as bad.

As.

As it was and as often maybe perhaps Mitt Romney made it sound.

Of course.

Unemployment is terrible and Nevada Nevada.

And he won there can't quite handle it because he nonwhite population of Nevada has grown by 78% the last ten years so.

That the demographics and it distracted and it took away from the economic argument.

But at some level I do think that people believe the economy is going to improve.

But it was still caused by policies of the bush administration of the crash happened.

Before Obama's first election and -- And that the country is slowly but steadily and painfully.

On a path to recovery otherwise I think he would -- walks.

Next exam and I was in the White House where we had a recession in 91 -- -- two in the near the end of our term -- bush administration and we lost.

And it was of course wildly hyped by the media we're ready coming out of Italy that he to have all that Republicans to complain about this little less funny -- I didn't I always thought -- citizens without the Romney people.

-- did it with their confidence that the economy -- so evidently that so just kind of obviously horrible as it wasn't Carter you could just say hey economy economy economy that -- go -- you're right it's humbly they just if you've had.

Economic growth every quarter admittedly very slow growth.

Since the summer of 2009 housing prices have bottoms and if we got to come back up the stock market's up 4050 present people just don't feel.

Unless they really in very bad -- sort of what it.

That that the -- falling out so it was bad enough to make a close election that it needed more of a positive case in the in addition to that by governor Romney I think to take him over the top.

Also governor Romney was very reticent to talk about any thing that dealt with George W.

Bush.

He did not want to defend the bush economic record at all he didn't wanna talk about it he didn't want to talk really about health care and lessons when I got to Medicare.

Then he turned it around and that Puget jujitsu move that actually worked for him because Medicare was off the table as an issue according to the polls.

But he also didn't want to talk about.

-- does he didn't want to talk about a lot of things look.

Elections are always two things -- referendum on the incumbent and their choice.

And the president spent a tremendous amount of time and money disqualifying -- so that he could win the choice as far as the referendum does what we know is that an incumbent's.

Approval rating tends to equal his ballot.

And the president's approval was just around fifty points something and guess what that's what he got in the popular vote.

And it was just you know it was right on the -- there when you compare his approval rating to other presidents who got elected maybe he was just a tick lower but not much.

There's a lot of Ron Paul fans typing in Brandon says one of the Republican Party alienate Ron Paul.

And will in New York says.

They -- they dislike social views if Republicans want to be part of the future they need to drop so that some of the older social views.

What about that AB I mean it is.

Is the libertarian wing of the party.

Going to fight for does the middle of the court.

Well.

On some issues there are other issues they're gonna say any debt deal.

That Vader strikes and Obama is not deep enough for spending cuts don't go far enough.

Rand Paul will let us hear about his budget -- differ from the house Republicans and -- it would be senate Republican budget and everything this is that.

This is always -- tension and -- because the party's been leaderless since bush.

Cleansed by the Tea Party which is leader list.

And just lost this election and and really rubbed -- by this there is going to be you know a real time in the wilderness and -- Ron Paul supporters will make their voices heard and it'll be it'll be very tough.

Even -- this is you know just segue into it to a different.

That it topic here but I'm just.

-- -- offers its I'm not a fan of Ron Paul or particularly of Rand -- but I do think at analytically Rand Paul is going to be could be a formidable presence of the Republican Party and the next thing for c.'s going to wants to run for president.

And he's a much more respectable candidate and plausible candidate -- Ron Paul who ultimately was always protest candidate.

And I would not bet against Rand Paul -- that we're sitting here three years from now the Rand Paul is in the top tier presidential candidates that message of his which combined to serve Tea Party populism.

With a sharp attack our government with some sort of backing away on the social issues to appear to appeals -- citizen younger voters as I thought Michael Petit.

But I just think people are -- -- real say -- right in Christie you know Jindal the obvious front runners for 2016 we should not forget -- -- even.

And your differing views on foreign policy and I think -- foreign policy again I'm not gonna like it that he will there be a market.

In the Republican Party in 2013.

For the profitable for the proposition that.

Barack Obama doesn't -- -- win in Afghanistan anyway such -- get out what's the point of a slow motion defeat which is where rentals instead of from the senate and say and I expect him to offer legislation and amendments to get out of Afghanistan faster than.

Barack Obama and I don't think that's responsible but I don't know will -- take a fair number Republican senators and house members met with him he might.

Don't forget he represents to the extent there is a youth vote in the Republican Party it's a libertarian.

Grander Ron Paul you -- Reception I mean if -- him.

Expand the youth vote that's and I want to a lot of those rallies all over the place and there were you a lot of young people there.

And that is true I mean there is an argument has the party looks sort of rehabilitate itself and try to open up -- tend to younger people.

You know day -- day they don't see color the way it did he do there.

Elders do they don't see homosexuality the way -- elders do.

They don't see them.

Social issues that and they don't and -- social issues they also are not fond of occupying Warren there and they are good in support of the old Republican.

Way of less foreign.

Entitlements so it is really coming upon the parties to try to to reach out to them it'll they're -- -- Paul libertarian strain is a difficult one.

But I want to just talk quickly got out -- another attention that the establishment has with everybody else who's -- -- and that is that I think I feel for the Republican.

Establishment that tried to pick winners.

And then decided.

After Sharon angle and can -- and and Christine O'Donnell.

That they were gonna do a hands off approach and let the chips fall where the same day and and they -- up again losing Richard Lugar scene which is ridiculous.

And I'm buying a clamor Cassel another six years a candidate both parties is that.

-- it don't matter who Tea Party candidates who who was behind north in the Republican candidates North Dakota and Montana.

Totally establishment Republican congressman Florida as well you know I'm not saying that I I met with the Tea Party candidate wanted to run and -- -- -- -- to run against George Allen in Virginia have I was like.

Actually you know I'm sort of -- intrigued by the idea and it was time for change after having some of the former governor former senator.

And indeed -- -- you can't nominate her she couldn't win Georgia analysts by five points to -- candidates.

It is suspense and ran for senator from Michigan -- very -- -- -- analysts -- the sports and less like if you look across the country.

The Republican challengers -- a lot of these races against incumbents or an open -- Had more Washington experience for older you -- more tired candidates that then whatever running again.

I looked up and in North Dakota or Montana it's the incumbents or in the case of North Dakota.

The woman who is that the candidate I -- I think I -- -- -- -- horse and it's.

Refresh then the Republican challenges.

I don't think of the establishment always picks right they didn't they didn't motivate Chris is that revealed that they're not I don't know -- but what I'm -- yes.

This is it -- this is a difficult time for them because they don't know how.

-- they don't pick a fight at a grassroots and invite more insurgent campaigns but at the same time they don't want -- lose that one more time.

And they don't want to hear from the business community and -- -- how to handle all of the senators let's get them.

Congressman who can raise the most money in this -- Qaeda connection here and -- him in Florida instead of businessmen like Ron -- and I think both have it was a peculiar read the Tea Party backed candidates were pretty bad candidates and these tabs back candidates especially -- that a little bit candidates and they did pretty heavily in the center.

It's just wanted to challenge is that they're gonna have to buckle on buckle down immediately because what.

In licking their wounds and tunnel for what the Republicans are so -- today are trying to focus on his.

Let's take the senate back in fourteen -- -- -- let's consolidate our majority in the house let's not.

But this this whole -- out of uplifting blow up the last eleven months and next -- another six months explaining.

Let's get it off the table let's move on so we can win again.

And that's one the picking these candidates is it as a challenge.

Democrats that are up in 2014 are all most of them -- lot of and -- red states.

Mary Landrieu Max Baucus.

So.

Technically theoretically just like we said about the cycle should be pretty good from America always has got it seems a pendulum.

You know it's lights and and it always comes back -- one party comes back in the other party -- yeah.

When they're when one party wins congress and an -- sets the table for the next presidential election like the Democrats in 2006 this time it did swing Barack.

We've seen President Obama and I made this point last night never did the triangulation after 2010 right he never went to the center.

And that's why it was so.

Tough for people to say.

Wow how is he going to get over this hurdle with independents.

And with moderates and how is he going to get there turns -- he didn't have to.

Probably gonna come back and I we haven't been done self analysis of the data.

-- but I come back the funny did lose some -- up.

Some of those an event as a modest at desert and they went there among the ten million -- and missing from the seventy million he got.

In 2008 that the failure of the Republicans failed to attract more roads that from me as someone -- that -- the Republican administrations.

Is is really worsened amid a respectable candidate he he do you draw the whole party united behind there was no big it was the primaries -- he didn't have much citing actions within the party and actually we're pretty enthusiastic about him in the last month.

And still the Republican Party could only turn out.

Government 57 million votes or something like that it's not enough to win this year was would have been way way short -- in 2008.

He's the Democratic Party starting to look a little different.

-- -- On the house side as you know this -- it's much more liberal and it was.

You know the moderates conservative Democrats had wiped out twenty tan.

Now you have you know the rumor that Nancy Pelosi believe in Washington.

Under ground attempt to pick her sister a successor.

He just wants any wire the whip.

Two.

To have the job and and and moderate right but he's lost some activities some reporting she's awesome to her -- stemming from the -- lost so much on his face because.

They've lost their seats so.

She's looking it's it's largely believe that I'm James -- -- not go up to that job will not get the support of the caucus but.

May be happier -- -- -- or -- -- comparisons he is now the assistant leader and assistant minority leader he's in the leadership has been for a long time.

It's not believe that he would be able to succeed against.

-- but if she picks -- Chris van Holland of Maryland.

The ranking to Ryan on the Budget Committee or have their -- Sarah.

Would -- the younger but you know soldiers who have been leadership for awhile.

It's believed that they could probably.

Probably prevail but it more liberal caucus to be sure not trusting President Obama worried he's gonna give away the store ING all.

And so it it is it's time I mean I think everyone assumes Hillary will run -- 2016 or is hers for the taking.

We know the other is seen Martin O'Malley and in your -- But I mean I think it's -- in terms of the congress it's it's a tough time I mean.

-- Harry Reid is not even that popular his own colleagues expect.

Let alone you know how he runs the senate with McConnell -- it's it's it's it's it's very tough my theory is that -- you know.

Debated -- Charles some anytime she thinks that Obama's ideologue I think he's ending a maniac and I think he's in -- to the center.

And bail -- the Democrats free from the constraints of another election or legacy reasons and to get passed health care to do Medicare reform to do something on taxes.

Tim -- to do the big deal.

Speaking of Hillary Clinton lot of people been asking about Ben Ghazi.

There's more coverage of it.

There will now be hearings November 15 and -- in both the house and the senate.

And build.

If those -- don't get covered then I don't know what to do because it's it's pretty amazing story if you look back at the the history of the whole thing.

And we've talked about it many times -- three act play of the secure these security beforehand what happened during the attack and then the story afterwards and you don't.

I think there are a lot of shoes yet to drop.

I think they are and I think they'll be some of the will be embarrassing to the administration -- -- some of the we'll live to the president perhaps that was closed end of the day.

What happened happened on going forward to from its defeat processes that terrible tragedy for the people were killed obviously didn't -- in Libya and in the Middle East were probably.

I think people don't appreciate I think the president's -- thinking about what he how we can deal with either of us -- his own press conference.

People don't appreciate how many -- policy decisions yesterday pretty soon.

So now I -- Syria -- already reported today about Turkey perhaps trying to work out something all of us that you were aggressive and helping -- opposition.

-- -- irritated today in red -- hearings -- -- shows weakness -- right west I think -- Afghanistan I would -- Obama and Joseph Biden revealed sort of where they really are when he said we're getting out of their period in 2014.

We have 60000 troops there what's the draw down and he -- at what has Obama he has to make that decision recently sued and obviously Iran is out there.

So I we thought this or affect around in my -- that you know he would have incredibly busy agenda both -- domestic and foreign policy.

And the first you must -- true president Obama's well and does it speed up Netanyahu's timeline.

His negatives of an elected first and generous is for a second I think stuff that -- The couple months -- nothing like that where -- well nothing much happens unless something happens because there on his strokes of the it is always possible.

You do wonder on the but just on the zawahiri tape.

Which I don't as I've gotten much coverage not know we covered that but I guess an election dynamic that is truly striking and -- -- -- if they really think that they Ghazi.

Combined with the retreat in Afghanistan get -- Iraq is just a signal that we're basically.

Getting out of there are unwilling to intervene in the crisis unwilling to be tough to get you know frankly kill people when are people are under attack.

I mean that.

Effect it becomes pervasive you can really get a snowball effect it's extremely dangerous -- -- Paul in Ohio writes Brett you looked tired and call your right to our sleep will do that on a train.

Panel let's get this off for a year but -- great thank you very much you guys have been great throughout the election.

And and that's -- thanks for tuning in -- I'm sure tonight will be back here tomorrow of course 6 PM eastern a special report.

Control room a little --

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Special Report Online: 11/7/12

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