Accuracy of Larry Sabato's pre-election 'crystal ball'
Reviewing predictions made before race
- Duration 4:14
- Date Nov 8, 2012
Reviewing predictions made before race
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You -- in politics hindsight is 20/20.
But Larry -- those crystal ball gave us a very clear picture of where the election was headed.
Before any ballots were cast.
Let's review the election his crystal ball was right in predicting President Obama would win the swing states Iowa Nevada Ohio and Wisconsin.
Larry also predicted governor Romney would win Arizona Indiana Missouri and North Carolina.
He did get Virginia wrong Florida still too close to call though it is leaning in the president's favor.
Larry said it could go to President Obama if he had a good day and he did.
-- -- Virginia Colorado and New Hampshire President Obama ended up getting all three -- Larry 70 the man with the crystal ball is a director of the center for politics at the University of Virginia and how you feel -- a couple of days later about your predictions Larry pretty good up pretty good year wasn't.
It was it was a good year you know what it's not like we're curing cancer -- any thing that we need to put it in perspective but.
This is what we do so we're delighted to of to have done a decent job of -- -- particularly pleased with far.
Senate and helps ratings which which were I think the most accurate in the business -- out of what 33 senate races you got 31 of them right.
We have 31 right and we got to we came very close in the house we projected.
Democratic gain of three seats it looks like it's going to be a democratic gain of seven seats.
And given the number of house seats that's that's the ballpark.
What is it about your methodology that lets you guys -- this precise.
Well I've got a terrific team you know it's just like you all you wouldn't -- are out out front but you've got a cast of thousands right supporting you and preparing.
I've got to have some of the best analysts in the business here you BA center for politics we use not just polls but also election modeling regression analysis.
And some other techniques including old fashioned checking with good sources who have access to the private polls.
-- -- if we take a look at the map on and on what your projection was.
And then compare -- with the map as things actually stand after the election here your predictions.
That if we wife to the the map that shows how things actually turned out people get a pretty good idea of how accurate how accurate you work.
What about the hurricane the super storms sandy.
Did it affect -- votes did it cause you any last minute consternation -- wrinkles in your in your projections.
Well we certainly wanted to see -- we were cautious on account of that and also that final jobs report on the Friday before the Tuesday election.
You know if that had been a very bad report if unemployment -- gone above 8% again.
I wouldn't have been surprised to see Virginia and Florida go to -- -- that these were toss -- anyway so.
Little things can make a difference and hurricane sandy was more than a little thing it did elevate.
President Obama make it look more presidential and then the blessing the bipartisan blessing from his new best -- Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey I think it did have some impact was at least some voters.
What about that unemployment thing -- I mean the economy is the voters' biggest concern seven point 9%.
Unemployment the president.
Defied history really by being reelected with an unemployment rate that high can you explain.
I've explained it this way John think back to the only president.
Defeated after just one term for his party in the White House from this twentieth century on Jimmy Carter.
Why did Jimmy Carter lose.
In the middle of that election year the economy contracted seven point 9%.
Interest rates through the -- inflation rates through the roof.
This was a fairly stable economy was growing a little bit about 2%.
Not very good but nothing like Jimmy Carter.
I'm all right uninteresting look back there in the crystal ball as well.
Larry 70 with it's been a pleasure having your projections on you were pretty much right on the money as we said thanks for being with us today.
Thank you John we've had a great year in great time being with you thank you it's great thanks a during.