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Power Play 11/8/12

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    Power Play live with Chris Stirewalt. Join the live chat...

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What we can't do -- over the cliff -- -- manner.

This serves as a down payment on and a catalyst for major solutions in active and -- thirteen.

But to begin to solve the problem.

Waiting for a month to six weeks six months that's not -- -- all we know what needs to be done.

I'm not -- I think that -- We should -- roll up our sleeves and get -- done.

And that.

-- -- Views in stark juxtaposition.

Between house speaker John Boehner.

Saying.

Let's kick -- -- one more time a little bit on the fiscal cliff.

Just a little bit to get it it next -- -- that there's an opportunity.

To create a larger plan.

That will deal with things like spending and entitlements and taxes and all that stuff the so called grand bargain.

And then that with senate majority leader Harry Reid.

Saying -- no no no no no no no the time is now do it all and do it in the lame duck session that will occur between now and the end of the year.

And this is power supply and I am still.

Post election Chris -- -- and we are back I'm happy to say -- studio three here in the District of Columbia.

Back from the mother ship in New York.

And Washington.

Wants to take a break wants to rest Washington needs a break it was a ruling election.

-- Washington of course I -- me but the truth that is.

That because of all the came kicking that happened in the past leveraging everything to the days just beyond this election.

That there's a lot of work that has to be done and there are a lot of things that have to occur or everybody's taxes go everybody pays federal income taxes go -- we have a problem with Medicare immediately.

We have a longer term problem with social programs we have -- Two defense spending all of that stuff including resolution to continue to allow the government to borrow money.

All that steps in need.

Where are we going to get it and how are we going to do it.

That is the question.

And when things get murky.

When things get confusing.

-- politicians.

Are trapped between their own ambitions.

And the need the urgent need to do something of substance.

You know who you should turn to.

You should turn.

The AB Stoddard.

Because no one understands the perfidy and broken -- of our political system in exactly the same way as a BE reader -- the health and I would commit to you.

Her most recent column which is available at convenient Internet forum.

At the delegates -- seizing the moment.

So waiting what we did not expect -- maybe you did.

Maybe you knew this all along and are laughing at the rest of us.

But what we expected was some decisiveness out of this election we expected election that was sort of solve this problem.

That we had divided government and that could be a mandate for one side -- the other we have as we talk about here to elections we elected a very liberal president.

Then we elected a very conservative house.

Now we have still a liberal president conservative house.

I hate as you know -- to -- a lot of doom and gloom for months if not optimism was for Parsons and I never thought that the mandate for either side really that's class and he loves there's little doubt that -- question is why I've been moaning about fiscal first because.

I did not think -- wake up.

On Wednesday November 7 with the direction.

Real and and it would be.

Determined by the election so this is the team that failed us we are stuck with -- They do know however with their political goals -- site.

The president a legacy and the Republican Party in congress.

A consolidated house majority and the senate majority and when he fourteen and ultimately.

The White House that they need to get this problem off the table -- -- they've been added since April 11 if government on the brink.

Everyone's sick of the precipice and it's really time with the fiscal -- heading.

The right out us and the possibility of more credit -- in and everything else.

It's really time to get -- so that's the consensus that they share how to get there and they were no until.

Several weeks I think we don't know anything before Thanksgiving maybe deep into just.

But there -- so we have Boehner and the house vote and say okay you want a second term as president taxes are on the table weird -- you know they call.

There's a good rule of -- when people are increasing taxes they called revenues when they're cutting taxes they call them taxes and it's a good that is a good rule of thumb.

But what Boehner talked about yesterday was like let's do this and let's -- the grand bargain that we tried before.

Where we couldn't quite get there and ended up.

Putting all these triggers and then creating sequestration.

And creating.

The steepest part of this class working very steep part of this club but then you hear Harry Reid say.

-- slow your roll now we got it let's just do this now.

It doesn't look like there'd be any way to do it now except for either a short term extension to give time for a deal to -- and right for.

You just sort of extend and what the senate Democrats are talking about is letting the tax rates for people who make over 250000 dollars revert to the Clinton.

-- -- Extending the tax rates for everybody else.

And not really taking time it's.

Well did that the one.

Aspect of leverage said that the Republicans have is that the White House wants a debt ceiling increase rolled into one large package.

Because then it becomes.

It's it's a -- -- argument whereas if we wait for debt ceiling increase battle.

On its own right next year it will we're talking about.

For this much increase in debt we will have to reform entitlements right so so the Republicans have that leverage with with with the White House.

-- no matter what the senate Democrats want.

That the problem is on that middle class tax hike that's the question that Republicans I spoke to yesterday are so concerned about they don't want that on their hands.

So if they say if it's their members say we -- hell no we won't go we'll go over the cliff because we won't raise any taxes on anybody including me -- the top bracket.

Then there's they've been -- -- the leadership -- -- fears.

A middle class tax like it's on -- and we'll take years to get out from under a lost battle -- they actually it they concede privately.

That if the president goes all over 250 to 500 million that there are gonna be hard pressed to vote against that.

OK so the president know.

Did not when he first came into office in 2009.

He and run a unity campaign.

-- Ronde bringing people together kind of campaign that he got in and he found the Republicans.

Meaner and less open that that he thought but certainly he didn't.

Blame much on the line he didn't extend himself in that way.

Then after the Republicans won so big -- 2010 he didn't Clinton he didn't triangular -- his way into that so the question is.

This is a third opportunity.

Yeah having one a second term but having the Republicans returned in the house he's offered a third fresh start.

Correct to say you know what let's let's work together.

Does he have that setting in himself is he going to find a way to do.

Well I don't talk to him about it I think you guys -- I don't think it's Republicans actually.

Shared -- -- that really this is the best chance for big overhaul and a big grand bargain because.

They actually don't want to reform Medicare and -- -- with a Republican president and hold the bag for twenty years they'd like you know I shared pain so.

Then there is this feeling that he is you know he was willing to.

Two.

Basically.

Blow off the anti war left she was going to blow off the unions who's willing to blow off.

Gay rights supporters for very long time in his first couple years he didn't go for public option there are many people left there is very stressed about the president's first couple years.

You know what -- senator the polls that they were you know they roll out the effort and money but they they were very disappointed they -- now.

That he's going to abandon them and moved to center on deal with Republicans.

And and -- either a lot of what is it that.

Don't want to give Obama a deal but they're -- a lot of Republicans that you could see just want this emergency.

Off the table so they can move on to cleaner fights -- let's fight of that energy let's fight about you know how to create immigration but let's get away from.

The market's crashing.

A guy and last thing.

And this may be the most significant.

For the leadership.

For the house leadership how much wiggle room -- -- have really really.

Well that's a tough one he's going to make the case huge the rank and file that they are playing for history that they need to get back to those queen fights.

That they can't with a popular president.

Who won an electoral landslide even though -- and having -- a mandate -- they cannot.

-- get themselves into a fight -- people that takes them months to get out -- get there they're running out of time already you know looking at an accident term election.

They can't vote fight every vote every day every deal.

That they need to come together and decide there's some things they just want to get off the table.

Then that the rank and file is not she -- you but those who have been around now for a term are selling to obviously the older guys.

Are they know are interested in getting back to being -- governing party and winning again and I think that -- ES.

More room with them that he did six months.

They're not -- and many most of them are not chase either.

AB Stoddard she is wise she's friendly -- collegial.

It's all of those -- and that is where you'd like her so well Internet AB thank you negative.

Normally -- Okay okay we're gonna take a quick break but when we come back.

We will see me fisticuffs -- -- sort as we try and find out this.

Wind and the things that AB has described as needing done.

Are going to be done it will come down to a very few people it will come down to dealmakers in the United States senate.

-- people can forge a compromise that can get people from both sides especially if they have the help of the president.

Who's going to be who are the people watch over the weeks to come.

To see who can get the job done and make it happen we've got people who can tell you.

How to fill -- your score card you'll like that.

So stick around.

And fellows are four of the people who may very likely.

The key to getting a deal that will allow the government to function for years -- Taxes not to go up.

And all kinds of bad things that are looming just ahead.

And this is power play and you were looking there.

At the trio.

Democrats moderate Democrats.

Joseph mansion.

Mark Warner and Ron Wyden and one moderate Republican Susan Collins because here's the deal.

John Boehner and Barack Obama can work out a deal to avert.

Did looming disaster fiscal -- They can work out a deal they can get anything done but he can't get sixty votes in the senate.

It's not gonna happen so that means that there are the Democrats are going to need at least seven Republicans.

Probably more.

To get through it's complicated it's difficult.

How are they going to do that.

We have gentleman who combined hey lovely combination of political cynicism and love of country it's hard it's the power play -- we like to think of it.

Patriotic Americans who managed to think and politically cynical terms.

And that is sort of -- he was once part of the McCain campaign.

He is a Republican strategist.

And he is of the civic forum pack.

And -- completeness.

He is McMahon squire & Associates which is a democratic firm.

And he is formerly chief of staff to one of those guys to Joseph -- mode -- as we know that as we West Virginians know M -- you guys so.

What what is the motivation if this and it always talks but -- of this and gangs of that in kings of eleven and whatever else but really can't get anything done unless you can have a big if you start with bipartisan court -- let's start with you.

The Republicans.

Mitch McConnell did not send compromising.

Instead the basically the house from -- the house Republicans.

Came up with that that he would have enough to either I deliver that or block something they didn't want.

Well that's going to be -- distributed -- -- and I think that one of the members of the democratic trio is going to be the most important here is more wanna.

And the reason for that is he sits on both sides of the military entitlement divide.

And we saw that we -- the election in Virginia and and how that worked out.

And frankly he's probably the most sense centrist Democrat of wolves.

Concerned about small business protected -- -- bush tax cuts that's sort of the other half of the 2%.

And they -- one million small businesses.

File.

Under that and I think that he's going to be a leader along with your former boss and I think that if they come up with something that is rational overalls.

I think Mitch McConnell -- -- -- but I think -- is being Smart because.

He wants to stand his ground and hold his chips as long as possible.

OK so there are a lot to do the Democrats in the senate there there are a greater percentage of Democrats in the senate Chris who are moderate.

And then there are in the house the house Democratic Caucus has gotten increasingly liberal whereas in the senate right because they keep losing season places in places like Arkansas West Virginia and other places that would that would traditionally home.

To moderate Democrats.

But senate does have including your former boss and people like Warner and others.

Do they have the clout do they have the clout.

To -- to get a deal together and do something.

I mean I I I think it all depends on.

What -- sides willing to gay.

Community -- -- the art of compromise how much you're willing to kind of you know moved to the other side's position.

I I think.

My concern is if McConnell who here's the problem I think with McConnell he's facing eight election in fourteen immediate challenge in the right.

Yeah and that is that's possible.

Which is why you brought in for example you know Rand Paul's they're McCain campaign manager trying to run his campaign yeah.

He so he's going to be looking -- everything he does both in terms of you know.

Maybe to deal terms of the senate politics have been looking -- in terms of zone -- excessive.

That combination.

That puts him in a position where maybe he's more worried about his reelection in this early.

Getting things done.

I think I don't know how that plays out but -- say doesn't like to play out well but on the democratic side Harry Reid is not exactly blow the bugle compromise either no but I would say that you and listen having worked with -- -- in his in his folks.

And and knowing -- you know senate she's just out on both sides.

-- -- strong core of individuals there who will negotiate I would say that Reid is willing negotiate.

I don't know McConnell shares that same spirit and so the question is going to be.

How does that dynamic play out in the coming.

Luckily I think McConnell will share that spirit.

Depending on what deal John Boehner gets I mean because we also have some Democrats here -- have some long term aspirations potentially for president like Mark Warner.

So there are some folks there that -- -- are also looking at long term and I really think that what we're gonna wind up where there's a stopgap measure.

And then we're gonna see what John Boehner can do in terms of long term reforms.

Forward but I want quickly threw him.

Who are the other Republican Susan Collins is not enough.

To get a deal done who else when you look at the red team.

Are of those Scott Brown is there until the end of the lame duck but he's going away and he's being replaced by very liberal Democrat.

Bob -- Quayle Lamar Alexander from to the Tennessee -- -- yeah they're they're more moderate who else.

I think Dean Heller could be believe it or not and -- -- -- person there and bomb.

Also -- and it what he's not the new senate he was appointed into the seat that was vacated -- his predecessor it was you know it was the folks has skated by.

That are in the good -- states are in the most difficult economic situation and that's why I think dean could be somebody who.

Is respected by both sides particularly.

Some of the harder provoked.

Isn't as bad as do -- senator from Nevada the two senators from Tennessee senator Collins from Maine.

Anybody else.

I'd like to see what -- pressured us.

New -- new senators soon to be senator from Nebraska.

-- who -- when we look at the democratic side other than those -- -- than mansion and Warner.

And -- who have already demonstrated their bipartisanship.

Who else is out there we'll look.

If you want -- right North Dakota a -- camp one.

Yeah I didn't write so -- that I would say is as someone who's gonna lose and one and to deal and negotiate compromise.

-- Donnelly in Indiana.

Is another one would definitely wants to I I would say deal in the and negotiate -- -- he's not eight.

Mr.

wouldn't describe Nelson most people -- describe as a as a as a centrist minded Dick Durbin is someone who I think is willing.

Did he voted for -- you voted for the Beatty Bowles Simpson budget -- budget action which was hated by many Liberal Democrats and -- surprised I think -- I don't think.

Probably terms it was in the fiscal cliff you have almost yet the bush tax cuts -- frustration -- all these different pieces have to get done.

Payroll tax unemployment insurance that's kind of on the side if you will write all the things get done by the end of the year the reality is.

Writing legislation takes time -- is it not to mention the fact that you couldn't mobilize a lot of interest groups what's the devil's in the -- -- coming Aaron -- so.

The more likely scenario is that some of this gets pushed right now I do know from people I've spoken to that the -- -- crafting the legislation -- -- been crafting it for actually months right there.

So -- -- -- when that starts coming out what it is surprise.

It's a fiscal cliff.

Gentlemen we thank you very much we appreciate your of the Ford is being bipartisan.

It's our blue tie today -- we have that that is he didn't lose a bet he's just a nice guy but gentlemen we thank you very much.

We were gonna take a quick break but on the other side of that break we will find out what the Republicans are going to do the terms soul searching as being used a lot.

About what Republicans are going to do having lost.

A second consecutive presidential election.

Game -- -- from the Wall Street Journal we'll tell us what his diagnosis says and what others say the answer is we'll talk about that when we come back so stick around.

Had not indicated I would be told the DREAM Act of provisions included in that -- -- say that people who are.

Here illegally if they go to school here long enough get a degree here that they can become.

Permanent residents I think that's a mistake.

And that was Willard am from -- Former laying the Republican nominee for president of the United States way back.

In January.

This year at a debate in South Carolina that we hosted -- the Wall Street Journal.

And he was taking a tough line on immigration.

This is our fight to the question Internet for Republicans.

And let me let -- -- a little something here.

When people say what the Republican Party needs to do you.

But -- today.

It's that they need to do whatever they were saying they needed to do before so it before each other Republicans should be more moderate now you say that did this is proof that they need to be more moderate if you were saying they need to be more conservative before you say this is proof that they need to be more conservative.

But that's not really worth listening to but somebody has always -- -- -- stage manager he is the deputy.

Editorial page editor at the Wall Street Journal is also the author of the wonderland column which is always excellent -- welcome back.

American press.

OK so here's the question and I wanted to -- your column today about Obama's divided nation and it's quite good.

But I want because you are Smart I want you to first tell us.

What is it that in this do the Republicans and need to do any soul searching and -- if their soul searching what should they find it there.

Well I hope they don't get carried away with the soul searching Chris because I think the economic message was a good one -- a strong one and the polls suggest it got strong support from the electorate.

But you've raised this question of what.

Mitt Romney said about the Hispanic vote and I think.

The numbers suggest that -- this is clearly a problem for the Republican Party.

Romney's share -- -- respect vote 27% was lower than McCain's at 31%.

George W.

Bush first got 35%.

In 2000 and then got it up to 40%.

And 2004 and he won two presidential elections we've just lost two presidential elections with a low.

Share of Hispanic vote it would seem to me there is clearly a problem there we have somehow the party has alienated those voters.

Now you -- in your column today.

The the about the question of who in the Republican universe.

Is going to go forward you you you say in fact that Chris Christie.

It's all done that because it is because of what he did with president and storm response that he's done.

Who else is out there for the Republicans and I don't just mean as a potential 2016 nominee but I mean where -- the the ideological intellectual force powered derive.

Four Republicans in this time.

-- -- Great question I think it dries Chris and they deserve more attention than they normally get from the Republican governors that you Republicans now control thirty state houses in the United States a larger share I think they've ever held.

And by and large those were those governors light -- Scott Walker in Wisconsin.

John case -- Ohio it's McDonnell McConnell in.

Virginia are.

Pretty acceptable conservative they are economic conservatives their cultural conservatives.

And they are winning support in states all over the country and I think.

It in terms of governing we should be talking to them and asking them what message do should be conveyed to the American people.

In some of those swing states they're the guys who seem to have figured it out for the Republicans.

And the last -- give us -- grade it as quickly if you will with brief explanation of how Mitt Romney did overall running for president.

I give him a B I think the Romney campaign that was run after that first debate was perfectly fine it was excellent it was what you could have hoped for in number and and a presidential campaign.

But he gave away September he gave away most of August it was a much weaker campaign before that.

He had the Republicans in the state of panic and confusion up to October 3.

I think it hurt -- fund raising and a fund raising and turn.

Hurt his voter turnout -- -- so I would give them.

Of the -- -- -- -- and ultimately he ran a good campaign but before that it just wasn't enough he started from too far behind.

To make up the difference in the end -- Game editor he does not grade on the -- We thank you very much for being with us and enjoy the rest your election week -- gonna talk different.

Okay Internet.

The election is over yes but power points remain with you 88 beacon a -- star for you going forward.

And I should also point out before we get to the power points to part of the -- points.

We should say that I'm hunt is up next -- -- greens filling in for Jonathan.

It should be called on the green.

Maybe she will get that done for her.

But now on your power points.

Airports today muddled.

-- so here's your first PowerPoint.

Mean and we heard this today from your -- that we've heard it all over the place there are no mandates that there there's no mandate for the house Republicans.

Except that.

They're their decision to block and hold.

Seems to have been ratified.

And the Ryan budget -- those those parts those seem to be okay Democrats ran against that from the Republicans were returned to -- seize control of the house but the president.

-- even though the he didn't talk much policy does get a little bump on his 250000.

Dollar tax increases he talked about that but there's no there are no mandates here.

Which brings us to the second question.

What about the shrinking center.

We talked about this -- today the blue dog Democrats are gone they're moderate Democrats are not a voice in the house anymore in the senate -- a few.

And on the Republican side the idea of the old fashioned moderate well you know that's.

That that's -- -- -- fashion so here's your third PowerPoint.

Ideas will rise one of the reasons we have such deeply divided government is that we are very broke.

In the old days you could always buy people's moderation.

If you wanted somebody's vote you could offer them stuff you could offer them roads and bridges in prisons and all kinds of stuff for their districts.

You could give them money when you broke like this in -- deeply in debt.

It's harder to sort of use -- -- mirror dealt to get out of those jams so what's gonna happen now ideas will rise there will be a real struggle there will be a real battle as people try to come up with ideas that are appealing -- -- of both sides of the aisle.

We'll see whether they're up to the task.

-- certainly every American should hope.

That they are.

So that's that.

Will be back tomorrow to wrap up election week and now as we like to do every day.

We want to leave you with the word.

For our French are.

Us I think -- Republicans.

Can change their position.

Be a lot more open to actual amnesty with enforcement amnesty everything short of citizenship.

And to make up a vote change in their policy enforcement and then immediately after I guarantee of amnesty that would change everything.

The other rubio arguing that it would completely -- All the ethnic alignments.

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