Where is US foreign policy headed?
Gordon Chang on what to expect from the White House during the president’s second term
- Duration 8:25
- Date Nov 8, 2012
Gordon Chang on what to expect from the White House during the president’s second term
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-- where the US foreign policy is headed now that -- in his second term Gordon Chang joins me now on sent here.
To talk about that and other things about the foreign policy so that you know we.
Our will you.
-- your reaction to her report.
Well I think clearly there were problems there it was a political season and so we weren't gonna get answers.
But this I think shows the real problem in terms of the administration because they have a view of the world there was an event on September 11 that sort of undermine that view.
And I think that they have really got to come to the party.
We've seen this -- a number of different context you know the administration came into the office with the idea that they could work with China and Russia and although large powers in the world could cooperate.
They had to back away from that because the reality is -- them and reality mug from a September 11 and I'm -- as well.
So do you think -- have any adverse effects on the administration if we get a little more details about the Ghazi and it does not look good for them or is it does make -- difference will it.
-- do -- it change their posture on foreign policy because they will have to react to the new realities.
And going forward I think we're going to see a number of -- issues that the administration is gonna deal with.
-- not be so much making policy and it has really having to deal with the problem of the moment I think they're going to be a lot of them going forward just because the way the world is going with the global economy and also with the problems with -- brands in the North Korea is in the rogue elements.
What was it -- Iran because didn't the nuclear.
Arsenal of that everyone is this -- suspects that they have is there and so how will the US deal with with Iran how should they do with -- Well -- this is a -- -- question neither does so many aspects to it but I think one of the things is that we really should be backing what Israel wants to do.
We had a very successful foreign policy with regard to North Korea in the early part of the Obama administration which was backing -- -- the South Korean president.
Who really knew how to deal with the north Koreans and and Obama stepped back -- -- you go deal with it.
And that was the right thing to do because Lehman block knew how to do -- you know he had a tougher much tougher policy -- regard Netanyahu.
I think sort of -- same thing with Iran where we really need to back Netanyahu.
-- -- isn't he said that he would go it alone if he had -- it it was just before election talk.
Or do you think that now that -- and you know secured now for the second term he's got a backup at -- I don't think he's -- back off that statement because you know it is Israel's security and although that they do look -- -- for support and assistance and have for decades.
Nonetheless they cannot subcontract that out to Washington.
And so I think that we are going to have events which people are not going to be here right now -- inconceivable.
But the Israelis if they feel they have to I think that they will in one way or another bomb strike the Iranian nuclear weapons program.
And then what happens then what does how does the US respond if that actually happens.
I think we have no choice but to support Israel.
At least that's what a president Chang would do -- FF FF.
President Obama I I think will will probably tried to.
Take a middle ground but I don't think you that will be sustainable because the Iranian nuclear weapons program is something which threatens not just Israel and not just Europe but the United States as well because.
The Iranians have been getting these long range missiles with the help of the Chinese in the north Koreans.
And that eventually puts new York and play and and that's something that of this administration -- deal with.
-- if you don't have a missile defense system you have to deal with the threats and clearly the administration doesn't want to put more money to missile defense.
Well if that's the case then they have to deal with the Iranians in the north Koreans because these are countries that have missiles that.
Maybe not today but certainly within a five year time frame we'll be able to strike the American homeland.
What about moving over to China what about we're not that we're moving over to -- -- Anderson went about the future with China and what.
Do we do how apple what is the relationship like with -- right now and where we what should we move towards.
Well the administration came -- view them in that in the office within.
Unusually conciliatory policy.
Good Chinese sort of took that sort of gesture of friendship and -- as a sign of weakness.
And so they pushed and clearly you know now we hear these statements out of Beijing in the last day or so that they're really relieved that the president was reelected because they feel that when the chips are down.
They can push him around.
But the thing that's been very interesting about that is as they push the US back because the administration was not willing to confront China.
Countries in the region then look to Washington for more resolute policy and that's why the Obama administration had this pivot or should -- rebalancing as they call it.
And we're gonna see more of that because the Chinese military is breaking free of civilian control the country's going China's going to much more belligerent postures.
And not really means the US will have to react if it doesn't matter whether it was a President Obama or president -- Right now Washington is gonna have to deal with some very troubling trends in China.
What would have -- leadership in China.
You know if it did how would that affect.
Well China's gonna go through a very troubled transition sorting bin through troubled transition since for -- about a year.
The Chinese transitions normally take two years to consolidate themselves and they're just starting on that process.
The old leader doesn't want to leave.
And so let's go to Korea I think that's a problem like that's the problem would -- the current leader is probably gonna stay on as chairman of the Central Military Commission.
That means he's going to be competing with see him being the new leader and com and also to even make it worse they call this having two sons in the sky.
Or two centers it's gonna be even worse because -- -- who was Hu Jintao predecessor.
Also is now play.
They're playing behind the scenes and his exerting a lot of influence on on what's going on -- you have real leaders of China.
Going forward and that means siege in -- who is -- leader is going to have to try to get his two predecessors out of the way.
Before he can do anything and while all of this is going on the generals and admirals are essentially creating their own foreign policy which is belligerent hostile.
More than assertive and that's troubling the United Center.
Like -- about a real recipe for Obama.
Improve public issues I mean we're talking -- the war issues and -- it would escalate to that level or is we're not really at that stage yet well we're.
Almost at that stage -- because the Chinese -- are pushing on the Japanese right now with these islands to -- car -- the Chinese are using forceful tactics against the Japanese.
And although we take no position on the sovereignty of the -- -- in dispute.
We nonetheless have a treaty with Japan that requires us to defend -- Japanese administered territory and these are aliens the -- -- -- as the Japanese call them.
And -- uses a Chinese call him.
These islands are in fact administered by Japan so that brings us into play.
I was what about -- Europe because Europe has a debt crisis that sort of may be playing out or is probably playing on depending on what economic model that we're watching right now.
But what is it Europe's debt crisis.
How is that going to affect us as we move forward.
Within four years I think the euros got to break apart.
Because it's just not sustainable.
And it breaks up for us and this is in Germany francs at first you think they'll -- in the long -- Germany should break out first but it's not I mean what we're gonna have is this means the -- are the ones that are -- that they're -- are gonna have to get out of it eventually maybe even Italy.
But the problem is that you have strong countries and you have weak countries and you have one common currency and that doesn't make sense.
There's going to be -- fight -- Britain didn't stay and it's still have their power wise this decision and made was not to join the Euro zone.
And so that's a problem but also China is a problem from an economic point of view because they don't have the seven point 4% growth of they're claiming.
They have more like zero or one or two when you start looking at the underlying data.
This is something that the global markets have not digested yet yet we say they're slowing but we don't know how bad the situation is there.
You have economic crisis in Europe you have economic crisis in Asia and that really means the United States is.
Going to be challenged brown all right well thank you so much Gordon Chang he's the author of nuclear showdown North Korea takes on the world but he's.
An express so many other topics as well the thank you so much for being here talking about the foreign policy end -- where the US has had a thank you so much thank you.
And so we're glad to.