Will 'fiscal cliff' fears crush holiday sales?
Retail sales drop ahead of holiday shopping kickoff
- Duration 9:40
- Date Nov 17, 2012
Retail sales drop ahead of holiday shopping kickoff
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Just good students and Murray -- are.
More like you are I mean one fiscal Clinton.
-- -- humor Deal or No Deal hitting retail sales and more stores hurting for shoppers opening their doors on Thanksgiving Day.
Try to attract more consumers looking for deals so will look fiscal -- Be the grinch that steals holiday sales at any hope for recovery.
Hi everyone I'm Brenda Buttner -- is bull -- bear couple.
Yeah yeah -- Tobin Smith Jonas Max Ferris along with Gary out now and Susan -- welcome everybody okay Gary -- that fiscal -- As the great.
Unfortunately it is look it's the most important time of the year this is where all the profits and made.
The year and the problem is simple.
Uncertainty uncertainty uncertainty nobody knows where they are -- nobody knows how much money they gonna have to spend.
And more importantly the outcomes -- -- be even worse higher taxes less money in the economy less money to buy it retail no good.
This isn't actually The National Retail Federation is saying that we should see an increase in holiday sales about what like 4% I think that's right that's right Brenda.
And I am still staying optimistic to really important numbers that came out this week.
The University of Michigan consumer confidence survey showed that -- highest level since July 2007.
And additionally the expectations for the next six months are also at the highest level in five years.
So despite the uncertainty consumers are still feeling pretty -- and I think that -- word we're getting out of Washington day.
Is a lot of trying to work together.
Well Gary B actually.
Well I I'll go beyond uncertainty that Gary -- said I think it's as a gloom and doom of the Brenda if you walked outside that studio on this around here ten people off the street.
All had a bum if you asked what is the special clip really mean they got I don't help but it sounds bad.
Just -- school club sounds -- doesn't sound like a good thing.
-- bring -- when you hear this day after day after day.
I think it starts to weigh on consumers out there it sounds gloomy it sounds terrible and when people feel terrible the poor perception.
And psychology and anything else.
They don't spend this much I wish I could be is optimistic this is that when I talk to the average person out there and I'm including myself as one of those.
Everyone is feeling -- kind of block out -- are not average crazy that Toby you're shaking your flight.
Blow away yeah it was -- averages -- -- -- -- but but more importantly.
I you know.
We have an economy and we have viewers out there who look beyond -- this and lack.
Now that we're hearing about fiscal but we know what's gonna happen it's like Lucy and Charlie Brown about -- -- run towards the -- he's gonna pull out the end.
We know that that congress and the senate have their own little plan together we're gonna get to ten minutes before this whole thing you know turns.
And they're cut -- and miraculously.
We're gonna have a one era you know plan and we're gonna Bob Bob -- so if somebody really spurred some selling stocks because they think fiscal cliff has gone crazy.
Don't do it overtook you're tired of -- fiscal -- you know watching cartoons -- guy at 200 I think it that's not his dedicated people that wound up there that make it.
Look at your pretty wound up -- Jonas I -- the bottom line is people are looking ahead the fiscal cliff will be what I would.
It would happen a week after Christmas this could really affect more than 23 did today and -- thirteen can't it.
Certainly can because I'm with Gary you it's disliking people out about how bad it is that it drooling and do the damage the actual damage which is damage and millions across the board tax hikes of capital gains caught in small income high income.
And arbitrary -- -- -- cuts is not the ideal way in a soft economy to fix the budget.
It is still budget fix it which was called the budget fix and not the fiscal cliff can you will be more optimistic about the sort of -- definitely see investors in the -- recent weeks leading up to this -- to get out of stocks thinking there's going to be it is second recession we're gonna -- -- some European death spiral.
We are definitely psyche people up it is that it is -- -- range that we once had before leading goal broke a solid we go to France for survivors and income breaks down the biggest -- we got a chill out it's not just is not terrible.
Tiger Jonas it's not just the -- being out of people it is the actual reality the fiscal clip is really the fiscal step.
And the -- there's going to be on the consumer consumer I don't less dollars taxes are gonna go up and that's less money to spend.
At the stores and the most important part of the year without a doubt -- a thousand.
Is the holiday season that's what makes a year for most of these retailers and it's the worst time of the year and the only way things could get better is if they were new with a yacht tax cuts for next year but I don't see that.
Yeah it actually retail sales during the holiday season make up a quarter of annual sales for most retailers -- -- -- talking about doom and gloom.
You're facing -- tax -- you're telling me.
You're not gonna cut back on spending.
Well Brit I'm I'm telling you that.
Human beings are not binary and saying oh my gosh there's going to be some marginal -- -- this I'm just gonna build closed down a do nothing lead it if we did that we -- has done an event for the last two years because we haven't had any certainly for the last two years.
People are used to the fact that -- doesn't make any sense is dysfunctional and we've incorporated in our neighbor our -- I.
Out those caught.
-- is that why we are we have had and certainly is that when we haven't had a recovery do.
Well that's part of it I think I think honestly hoping is speaking from kind of a Washington insider baseball that's been -- yes.
Totally knows something will happen but the average person out there who picked up the Washington Post and -- the Bristol clip.
Day after day isn't gonna say I'm not gonna go watch apparently don't like this -- I -- we estimate.
Not the remember done -- this is.
You have written that there's a big -- -- -- -- big difference between this time and what happened with the debt ceiling great night and -- woods and it's coming out of DC's stock today.
All the leaders Republicans Democrats cannot to -- -- held a press conference to -- you're talking back constructive we have of course don't know I real much better -- I actually that they didn't plan.
Yeah did you live is -- -- yeah it's not coming from what I -- I I don't hear a lot of combed by not coming out of Washington.
I mean I heard some made the I I mean come out of marginally better run here every week -- the it's.
Look if they put anything together it's going to be -- to these attacks that were smuggled a few years ago early morning extended -- didn't kill Christmas or help Christmas then.
We had Christmas is before with these rates the world is not gonna and.
Because well yeah that's just -- until the opponent I did not make Isabel -- although I did OK he's just to get -- here I had.
Yes this is all happening while GDPs in the ones.
This is all happening what was -- seven point 9% -- -- a fake number.
-- 11% we don't have those glorious economy right now that can take this at this point -- -- just remember.
Nothing good happens when taxes -- increase in a bad economy and that's what we're getting on top of the.
All the Clinton and GDP adds that the best measure of the whole economy and it is -- but -- if you wanna get -- about this -- the people who ran a -- -- who are most.
-- likely to spend a lot of money at Christmas time at holiday time.
Are doing fine unfortunately it's of people who are the lower income brackets in the single people -- -- visited a high school dropouts are not doing well.
But they represent a much smaller amount of spending.
Then then the top you know 50% and that don't -- 20% is doing better by so you're you your tactics in Ohio where he's going and they're not gonna hire -- new tax the hiring people they're not gonna hire those people and they are getting more -- just -- ten people the last three weeks have nothing to do -- tax -- nobody wakes up in the -- -- constantly has been 1% more in taxes so -- not gonna go after a business.
-- big -- what you're Tobin Smith.
The Gary -- it could get all of its own negative they're looking okay yeah.
-- but you brought up the audience like those Hollywood mold gold.
That's not enough to be totally insulated from super Battie thing I'm millionaire -- yeah.
-- -- -- -- -- -- granular here just not -- We got down -- you wanted to.
It and glad they did the dead showed Allen bought up as a very frightening thing for both domestic consumers because it looked like the -- wasn't to be able to borrow money one upside -- positive about our Christmas holiday spending.
Is that this will reassure investors that they will get their money back when they limit to our government because their revenues -- -- golf there's been able to go down.
That's the good side of what is the general -- and that's a confidence thing for investors a better than going to Greece -- which.
Sure it knows when they don't you're going down.
-- -- -- and a government spending is not going down -- -- -- -- -- investment that is the -- you and says welcome back then you're right spending not gonna tell Kerry calling it.
Are you all -- -- -- word about this elicited capsule and then -- I've been mostly but look I don't think anything's gonna get done look when you bet on the at the horse track you've -- -- best performance how is our government done with the deficits -- and -- spending over the last few years a grade of F plus.
But they always get city and.
They get over the -- -- -- yeah -- are and how it last -- sorry guys have been.