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Power Play 11/20/2012

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    The latest political news straight from the Beltway

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Show our series this weird but revenue on the table.

How long -- development.

-- significant spending.

And that was house speaker John Boehner on Friday the day before his birthday.

-- After leaving a White House meeting with the president and other congressional leaders Republican and Democrat talking about revenues and as you know Internet.

Revenue.

Means that somebody wants to increase taxes.

And when they say to act when they direct taxes that I -- cutting them.

So that's as you know that perfectly well now this is power play and I -- Chris -- well.

And welcome welcome to studio three Internet as we prepare to.

Give thanks for all of the goodness in this nation we will also trying to decipher.

What John Boehner means when he says that and what is he really capable of getting passed through a very conservative House Republican Conference.

What -- the president do and all of that stuff as it relates to.

Though fiscal clue on palm.

We will talk about -- crunch time for big labor.

And what the 2012 elections and the twinkie the kids death by pitch in a shoot out.

And other things that -- -- to these days.

Portend for the future of big labor and America.

We will also talk to one of your favorites congressman Henry -- off.

From the great state taxes and he will talk about what Democrats are looking for a deal -- what he himself wants to be on the fiscal -- -- -- -- well that you and I know you.

Because his PowerPoint -- everything.

But you -- you may not enjoy any of it.

More than getting for the very first time to meet Jonathan strong he's -- staff writer for roll call and Jonathan covers.

The house leadership right and that's what you do that's right you've covered intimidate us that the rest of America shots they're trying to avoid them for -- -- and 92% of Americans say.

I don't wanna know you -- I must now to show that year we we appreciate your fortitude.

So from this universe of the house leadership what can you tell us about what John Boehner wants to do.

And what's -- able to get.

Through -- conference what he's doing something really Smart here which is to put forward this framework to President Obama -- this so what.

It's a concession -- -- more than he's put on the table before right.

But it's still ambiguous and there's still a lot of details to be filled in and he's putting -- team President Obama.

And that lets them look at whatever the president puts on the table and go to his conference to see how they feel about it.

Because his big problem is going to be losing 5060.

Maybe even up to seventy and eighty conservative votes on his right.

Flying but it goes both ways right that.

For Boehner he can either start with the -- try to keep as many Republicans as he can.

War and nobody knows -- likes to do this but you start with something that the other party that you can get the majority of the other party to go for and then try to pull people out of your own party to go over.

Right and what -- I -- in the last congress we saw a bunch of big ticket items like the debt ceiling deal.

Where it was something the majority of the Republican conference was on board and he was just losing some of its right point.

I don't think he's gonna try to do that other scenario where he goes for somebody missed the majority of the Democrats for me is a Republican House he would kind of face a revolt on his hands.

So he's gonna have to find something that can originate.

-- -- Republican side of the I'll write it but how many votes can he lose what what's what's the magic number here where it gets to be a a failure vs a success we saw.

Big ticket items passed with sixty Republican defections in the last congress.

That seems to be the magic number you can get Steny Hoyer -- on the democratic side to pull in a bunch of the moderates to vote for it to get it through the house right.

You start to lose more than that I mean if you get up 200 Republican defections.

And if it becomes a very dangerous situation for speaker Boehner because he's now going against the will of the majority of its conference.

So the and the big question now in the Internet -- -- and that's no -- The Internet knows that the big question now is is there any chance of putting together -- -- deal now.

Or is are -- in a definite -- thinking -- -- -- the definite kick the can situation where basically status quo gets extended for a number of months while they work at a bigger.

What they're talking about is a down payment.

Deal -- those guys are talking about that right yes okay so did the discussion is around a short term.

Down payment deal that gives some of what you want to do done.

Before the end of the year right and then that you you set up a framework for the longer term.

Big deal to be connected over the next year -- time and that would include taxes on the -- you you can't actually do tax reform.

This December it takes too long because -- it's a huge big lobbying you know.

Fight with all the special interest and so is not gonna happen in the amount of time that they have.

So in order to get the kind of big deal you're looking the horizon is out to the you know -- Twitter to -- would definitely lose.

I assume more than sixty votes on any legislation that -- -- tax rate increase right now if there's any tax increase is you -- more than six Republicans right I think so.

But the Republicans are a little bit and tail spin mode right now after the election.

And -- I'm kind of waiting for the backlash of all this talk of concession and let's pass immigration but I haven't seen -- yet in the house besides a few backed ventures.

Well I think Boehner is certainly we've -- data consolidate.

Our sense getting reelected as speaker -- you notice that that in in -- Boehner won the speakership.

There was.

And and nearly open feud between Eric Cantor and John Boehner right it's sort of was like be the worst kept secret.

In congress was that the friction that existed here.

I've heard a lot less of that this time around and as a matter of fact I noted that it was cantor who nominated Boehner for speaker at this time that's -- to -- -- symbolic move to say.

That's buried hatchet.

Oh yeah there I mean they're going overdrive on the whole I don't know what -- -- telling Obama in a private meeting that there's no distance between that.

One of the key factors in that interestingly was a couple key personnel changes both invaders office and in Kantor's office that reduced a lot of the staff level victory that ended up creating the impression on the hill and in Washington that there was conflict there.

And I wonder who you could be talked about -- I wonder what person.

-- about the I'm glad you're always welcome on the show.

And I like Brad everybody yeah.

Everybody -- -- he plays.

He's a hockey player he plays hard he's right he's not afraid to cross check.

A little bit but I I think obviously.

There.

The the need for Republicans.

To -- now there -- got to be strong self preservation.

Feeling here that the Republicans know that if they -- it's going to be works right.

There is a sense that that we can't have these.

You get kind of really really brutal internal battles on all these big items like we do last congress.

The promise you you you say that and then you get to the actual moment.

And there's principles the people -- really dearly on the line and you're not willing to just let that go and so you end up having the fight against -- it's over these key ideological principles.

Ideological principles we've we've never traffic controllers your power -- you know that this is cynical politics exclusively.

And Jonathan thank you for helping us -- thanks very much -- stage -- that -- his last -- if that is your real last name -- -- is refers more to you -- characteristic personal characteristics -- a -- that is common with -- when you say there is no chance.

But putting together a -- -- now quite so quite say shot and -- Okay we're gonna take a quick break but when we come back we'll talk to you a little bit more Internet we will be joined by -- of your very favorite analyst Bradley and and -- will be here.

And more and more excellence raw political excellence lies ahead for you Internet so stick around.

And that's what it looks like when people really do not like Wal-Mart America's largest retailer.

And this is power play.

And Internet you may be getting ready to go shopping at Wal-Mart actually probably gonna do your shopping online -- the Internet.

But.

For a lot of Americans -- will be the destination of choice this week as they go to try to get their -- me Elmo or whatever it is that's the thing this year than you crock -- for grandma.

And they're gonna be heading out to these stores and as they go in a lot of locations are going to be met with protesters now Wal-Mart.

Is asking National Labor Relations Board.

And perhaps courts to intervene and say that these protesters who are affiliated with the unions that have been trying to organize Wal-Mart since -- -- like 1981.

That they're gonna ask them to be enjoying them to prevent them from doing that this is the latest sort of risky gambit that we're seeing from organized labor.

Because let's face it the reality.

For big labor and America is that it's been a long decline since the glory days of the late 1950s when organized labor was at the zenith of its powers and membership in this country.

And it they have been facing new challenges.

Cycle after cycle decade after decade and now.

The fight is really boiling over so.

What's gonna happen what does it mean what's the consequence for the political parties and for you -- tickle me Elmo.

Bradley knows.

You know why -- -- because.

He is a professor at the Georgetown University which -- very well but at the same time he also used practical bare -- The politics himself.

-- bush fair and the younger.

-- -- There's too because she's a Democrat and Democrats and unions.

Each other that is very important you don't have a lot of democratic victories without union elbows and ground troops.

And financial assistance and and he was former senior advisor Harry Reid.

Who by the way owes his continued service in the United States that -- culinary union.

Yes and by the way if you wanted to see the best evidence -- -- what labor unions can do for Democrats Harry Reid's victory in 2010 he was marked for -- he was basically like even his own party it's a good.

But many in his own party and had assumed that he was -- but.

And he'd he'd beat a weak Republican nominee -- beat her soundly yet thanks to an incredible search by organized labor.

In -- Nevada so the question is this.

I've heard about this today and it.

I am I confess I totally blowing my own vehicle but I wrote today in power -- which you can simply for the cost of the following me.

That's he's barrel on Twitter just do it it's so -- lineup.

That I wrote today that unions had a good and bad 2012 they had a good 2012 they re elected Barack Obama.

It really wanted to do that they spent a lot of time and money doing that.

A date so they can they can be happy about that they're gonna get some help on the National Labor Relations Board and other things that they wanted they prevent Republican gains in the senate.

On the flip side.

On the state level where they were where they spent most of their money and most of their time they only have.

Three wins that they can really credit New Hampshire where they preventative governor coming -- -- put it right to work.

Michigan where they got a split decision.

They're trying to get a constitutional amendment that -- collective bargaining part of the state constitution.

But then they lost on that but that one on one repealing a collective bargaining limitation.

But then California is that 78.

Million dollars -- -- five million dollars in California.

To block.

As something that dealt with that would have.

Basically the shorthand for -- to be to be very crass here would have.

Blocked donations going from government worker unions directly to Democrats which is basically -- the center of the character herself.

Current.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Okay and what's that what's the state what's the state of the unions.

Well -- you know with the unions have always been robust and you saw this year play out many times -- that they play -- almost every election cycle.

And that is they are.

Keenly invested in the political process and they are keenly invested to make sure that they.

Help they need those leaders that will actually that you know to their benefit that will actually support the causes in which they believe in supporting the you know the values in which they treasure -- even even seeing your senior activity it's really not much more than usual but -- delisting that was -- seventeenth.

Then I think everybody has to recalibrate on -- also Scott Walker.

And ended there was a resounding defeat on their -- -- so they re calibrated after that I mean everybody was senior -- publishing going after the recount.

They did they forged ahead and for them to come back again with the drafters of this on California -- -- it really.

Yeah.

Obama love Obama would like -- know -- I understand but it was important -- that they because they -- -- to -- -- -- and a total disaster -- advance -- up.

-- what we're seeing play out is is we're gonna see Hotmail -- or more as.

As there.

And it as they will continue to -- -- those that are left of the leaders that will help them with the laws and the values which.

Brad there are now 24.

To -- states.

In America with Republican governors and Republican legislatures.

That's not usual normally it is the historical trend is -- you get a lot of Republican governors and that way it sort of goes up and down.

Along with the national cycle.

And then you have state legislatures are typically are are usually the Democrat Democrats and usually -- -- on the state legislative.

Level -- no coincidence that government worker unions are deeply involved in things like state senate races.

But this is an unusual moment -- -- going to be a lot.

Many walkers and many Wisconsin is out there among these Republican governors and Republican like.

Just like you -- because -- try to balance your budgets.

Collective bargaining agreements are are really the noose around state budget cycles.

Union public unions and in the type of entitlements they're paying is really.

Key.

To balancing the state budget and -- state contracts -- so out of whack with the private sector.

And went and when a government should try to balance their books you have to have and look for concessions from public unions so yes there's going to be battles there but.

Most importantly card check which -- again pres Obama promised to deliver has not been delivered on the national level that's not.

It's never gonna happen but it Democrats they -- -- overreaching.

And -- -- thing is look at the battles that unions and have placed even in the holiday season Hostess Twinkies.

Ladies and one thing.

Yeah it -- -- Eleven when it gets it shows the over reaching and and the -- take a laser twinkies they get really doesn't say I -- twinkies last night thinking that was my last week either but I at least I heard that the unions are coming back into the.

That's good because Obama has dedicated to -- take care of your health care -- and -- I don't know how many.

Yeah.

-- unions unions have historically over reached and they're doing it again this holiday season with protesting Wal-Mart so you gonna start shouting -- -- By the way it has nothing to do with the labor dispute that's ongoing but this is this is.

Offense that they're going to people with no labor dispute shouting at people as they go into quite -- Christmas -- you know Merry Christmas idiot that's yeah.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- is saying that there's going to be some -- Bet there's going to be more now it's not going to be who right now there's the gap between the cuts that are sought by Republicans -- -- but you already hear the members of organized labor.

That are facing this problem on the state level.

That are facing declining numbers in the private sector are saying now the federal government is gonna cut more -- means fewer government jobs -- government workers can.

Richard Trumka and others really effectively pressure the president in this situation or heard is that are his -- -- Indeed they can't and they will they -- -- will be -- police immediately cuts won't be as -- maybe they won't be as severe reading it won't be as broadening those kind of things incident that.

5% across -- only be three NASA this they're not affected as much that that's where it's going to be in the margins.

It's not going to be in the overall austerity -- austerity measures are going to be coming we're gonna be -- reduction.

Just spending -- BC in a reduction of services that will be provided so that cuts are coming.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Folks we thank you -- Much for your time today you Smart patriotic and fair minded as we all as the Internet has come to expect of you thank you have a good Thanksgiving.

Internet we have to -- a quick break but when we come back congressman Henry Cuellar will join us.

And we'll talk about what the democratic threshold is on this big budget deal -- what he himself to make radio.

Wants.

Wants in this deal so we'll talk about that when we come back so stick around.

And back is money a lot of other.

And that's exactly what the federal government needs right now to balance books continue to fund government operations and do things like do you pay for defense programs social programs.

-- this power play so -- gonna get wearable Uncle -- come up with all of those greenbacks.

Republicans and Democrats are strikingly conciliatory.

Sounds -- there's trying to sound conciliatory.

Because they know that did business community and folks at -- are absolutely terrified of what happens if -- stalemate again.

And so the question is what can fly what can actually work.

You know who knows that.

Henry Cuellar is a congressman from the great state of Texas.

And he is somebody who can see around the corner pretty well as a moderate Democrat congressman welcome back to the show.

-- -- -- -- Hello hello OK so here's the question let's start let's start with the way our -- What would you like to see in a planned for the fiscal cliff for taxes for the debt ceiling for all of this stuff that's looming out there.

Give us the overview of what the -- our plan would look like.

-- -- that was sort of what they conceptual.

Framework that we have to agree on.

There are there are some things that we can agree on there's something -- we have to negotiate.

But I would first start out with a framework that struck court appointed to represent that Democrats and Republicans the president of out -- -- we ought to -- the other thing so we can negotiate.

Second of all we got put everything on the table.

Support ships we have on the table of them all we can bargain at that time.

And a -- he has no matter how difficult it becomes.

We can't pick up the football and walk away we got to make sure we -- there -- -- we -- out an agreement.

At the end of the -- what it says is you're so -- we we realized that we can get and saw that he felt.

But if we reach an agreement a conceptual put some sort of down payment down a -- and revenues.

And then let's look at trying to do there is at the window of opportunity.

2013.

So congressman weeds.

-- understand that from Republicans when they talk about.

People pay more taxes they're talking about closing loopholes.

And -- Democrats by and large talk about people pay more taxes they're talking about raising rates are talking about raising marginal tax rates.

Why this why does this.

Conceptually matter so much is it shouldn't be target here being just what the dollar amount is.

And I agree I mean I think Fiat dollar amount -- we -- a conceptual framework we gotta agree -- How much 'cause we're gonna do to look at what the revenue should be so we can reach a a way to reduce down the -- -- that they get our house back in order.

Then we can talk about those agree those difficulties and idol -- difficult is it to the one side.

You know the Republicans want to just look at just closing loopholes.

Then on the other side Democrats some Democrats won a race the rate up.

I wanna see bars what can we agree on and it -- get to that goal because if we don't set a goal and we started looking at this pretty.

Bit of a forest we're never gonna get there.

Now one of the things that Republicans say is that with the the retention of a substantial Republican House majority.

That they have passed the threshold.

I'm dealing with entitlements that because so many of them voted for the Ryan budget where the Ryan budget blueprint and Democrats ran against them.

-- fiercely on the question of making changes to Medicare not Medicaid and Social Security.

That because of those things.

That this does that -- they have the mini mandate if you will for making entitlement changes part of any budget deal.

Down the other aspect you have the F precedent that that he has the mandate for any -- that he can really.

Raise the taxes on the -- just so they're from the perspective of the Republicans -- think there have been many mandate.

On behalf of the president he also -- -- the mandate.

Any we -- they don't hold off on those things were never there recent agreement.

We understand it got to be a bipartisan vote Democrat -- Republican.

Reaching this agreement but -- again on Monday it agreed out of the understanding.

We got to -- -- conceptual agreement then we can work out that because because if we get us that concerns and questions.

We're never go to reach an agreement and we saw.

They yup business communities -- -- in any given the Mexicans.

The Mexican.

You know the people across the border and other countries are all waiting.

To see what the United States we have -- -- the world that we can lead by example.

Congressman Henry Cuellar he leads by example and we thank you very much for making time for us today and have a great Thanksgiving.

Happy are you.

Okay all right Internet.

Yeah can you read this says this is the president wants a balanced budget why hasn't -- why -- he submitted one in the past four years from around.

He didn't say -- -- I had around and -- -- says this.

If the unions think that making things harder on Black Friday will win them support they have lost their minds says my tank.

So there you go.

All right so on the hunt is up next.

But it's Lauren Green because Jonathan Hunt is out causing mischief in -- and somewhere that's true.

And but I want to tell you something before we get to all of that Internet.

I'm going to be taking the day off tomorrow and then -- this stream will not be streaming for -- Thanksgiving and the day after so I wanted to take this moment.

To tell you about today's power it's.

And thanks anyway are today's power points.

And here's the thing people are -- these days Republicans and Democrats alike are crabby because they returned.

From the day after the election to find that that things were pretty much the same as when they left.

And that's making people a little grumpy and there's a lot you could complain about if you wanted to there's no doubt but.

Thanks anyway because there's a lot of good think of in this world and I know that we practice cynical politics here but you also know that I probably mostly it's happened -- so here's here's some things that I am thankful for first of all good people.

And the good people I'm referring to specifically -- the good people I work with the wonderful folks in New York.

And here in Washington DC who worked so hard and try so hard to make this the best little Internet show that it can be.

And I am so grateful for all of you everything that you do every day so thank you for that and Susan I think I'm thankful for politicians -- That's because otherwise what what I do for a living if it weren't for their terrible illness what would we talk about what what I have to do so they're you know they're putting they're putting bread on the table they're feeding the little -- place.

So we thank you politicians for continuing to.

Be who you have been since since the term was invented it.

And third thing I'm thankful for.

His view Internet thank you so much for sharing little bit -- today.

Now and then with me we hope we brightness we hope we make -- informative.

We try very hard because we care a lot about your enjoyment and edification it matters to us.

So have a good thanks get.

And now as we like to do every day we want to leave you with the word from our French.

-- Jury in which they will become extremely strong develop hundreds of thousands of rockets that can hit Israel.

Can hit Tel Aviv and Jerusalem and put.

80%.

Of Israel under its rockets Israel will never agree -- that.

That's -- suicide so as long as Hamas is demanding that the offensive we'll continue.

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