Cease-fire between Israel and Hamas
Jeanne Zaino and Bob Rice on the likelihood of the cease-fire holding between both parties
- Duration 9:33
- Date Nov 21, 2012
Jeanne Zaino and Bob Rice on the likelihood of the cease-fire holding between both parties
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It's noon on the East Coast 7 PM in the Israel and Gaza -- the conflict continues amid talk but little action yet.
On a cease fire there are rumors once again as we heard yesterday that there may be a cease fire declared that -- -- tonight.
All tomorrow morning -- hearing from awesome -- Israeli correspondents who have been right.
Historically on these things in the past that Israel may and I emphasize the -- may declare a unilateral.
At some point in the next twelve hours or so we will get -- -- correspondence and not in the Israel to talk about that possibility.
Meantime of course -- of state Hillary Clinton has been shuttling from Jerusalem to Ramallah in the west bank and now take Cairo Egypt.
Talking -- all the interested parties all the parties.
Who may have some influence here she met with Palestinian president.
-- mood Abbas in the West Bank earlier today she is now in Cairo has been meeting that with the new Muslim Brotherhood president of Egypt.
Mohamed Morsi but has yet nothing definitive on whether this conflict.
Can be brought -- any sort of peaceful ending if there is any kind of deal done the it's likely to be short term -- -- live troll ceasing all firing rather than any permanent deal.
That will take many more days many more months possibly many more he does it work if it can ever.
Be achieved so let's bring in.
Our panel today to talk about all of this joining me from the studio in New York -- Bob -- managing partner at tangent capital.
And -- Zdeno all -- Iona College good morning to both of you guys.
-- let me come to you first where all we win this does diplomacy in your view at this point stand a chance.
I diplomacy blew up Irsay probably doesn't know I -- -- I think what you're gonna see here is a slow cessation of hostilities because I think Israel is.
Pretty much made a point to can be completely -- that they were trying to make here.
On and you know didn't they know very well that -- not going to use military force to ultimately solve all the problems that are being faced here.
So I think that you will see things begin to simmer down a little bit.
Hillary Clinton can play a role the rest of the world's diplomats can play role but the end of the day we're going to be stuck unfortunately in the same status quo that we've been stuck in for very long time here.
-- I I wonder what you think of the -- actually -- today the active -- as Israel pulled it.
-- the bombing all of a boss in Tel Aviv now they're still investigating it but it appears.
At this point that a -- through.
The device on to that boss more than 27.
Injured as far as who.
We can -- just when we were getting to a point where people were beginning to talk about a cease fire.
That really was a major setback was it not to take this to the heart of Tel Aviv.
Now you're absolutely right it absolutely is I think it's indicative of what we've seen and what we're probably unfortunately Donald going to see.
And you know it -- it makes the case Alan Moore for an immediate cease fire and you know I do agree with Bob I do think we're gonna see that.
That said I don't think much is going to change I think we're going to be looking at the status quell.
But I think one big change is that the United States and the west in particular are looking at a very different Middle East -- we were say in 20082009.
When the last.
-- we saw this kind of level of hostility.
And I think it's going to be a very difficult time for the Obama administration.
As they try to negotiate -- going forward because.
Hamas is in a very different position now than it was in 2008.
And the old rules with United States and others have tried to use in this region.
No longer applies to why -- do think we're gonna see a cease fire in in this engagement.
I think we're gonna see more of the same as we go forward and a new environment can face to trying to negotiate very difficult for them to negotiate and so.
I am interested to see is an observer how the administration goes forward out and that's.
They have yet I think really to embrace the idea that Hamas is changed following what has happened in the Middle East -- the last couple years.
And that reality I think is going to dictate a lot of what goes forward.
Always do -- point well made that the policy -- right now is perhaps a little confused because.
Everybody is trying to take stock obviously we're dealing with a very different Egypt right now -- And the Egyptian government being the only one really that has any real influence on the -- that we struggling to.
Find a way forward here in terms of our own policies quality of your question precisely every point -- makes as well -- Jonathan if you -- And if you've very independent candidate but Gary do you object as to the rest of your question of course and what what -- -- All the rules have changed all of the rules -- change the governments are all very different because the populations.
Are all very different than they were just a couple of years ago.
And speaking of change how I mean I believe this is the first war that's been live tweeted by one of the participating -- I mean.
The ivy app was you know from showing its video it was warning that.
Hamas leaders not to go out in public.
Over Twitter I mean this is -- it truly is a new world and every possible way but the implementation of social media.
Has changed these governments has changed these nations has changed for the governments are capable of agreeing to or not agreeing to.
What they're capable of being seem to agree -- -- not to agree to.
And it's even gotten down into the actual conduct of the warfare it's an incredible.
Not a situation an incredible.
Of just how different and how fluid and help all the dole and how unpredictable things happen.
Yet -- has been fascinating to us.
And resolve to watch -- The tweeting of this war should point -- that the Al Qassam brigades.
On the us on the Hamas side have also.
Been tweeting what they consider their views and their achievements as they would put it all of this war as well as the Israeli defense forces on that side of the border -- And Egypt Leslie was saying the key in this -- -- see the new president member of the Muslim Brotherhood.
I key in this they can bring some real pressure to back on -- -- president Morsi appears to be trying to balance.
That the way that the public opinion which is obviously -- like ate lunch spot.
Anti Israeli do we at this point put a lot of pressure.
On president more seen by saying hey we -- billions of dollars a day in -- -- you want it you stop pressuring Hamas or is that the wrong -- to take.
You know I.
Think that that it's going to be one of the things that the administration really is gonna have to do is to pressure him more than they actually happen.
You know I -- and you're absolutely right they're gonna have to hold that aid over his head.
And he and they have to also be sensitive and recognize that he as you mention is walking a very difficult very fine line.
He takes one -- step over either way and he is going to have his legs cut out from under -- and he knows that and I don't mean literally of course I mean you know figuratively and politically but.
He's aware of that the United States and negotiating this with him have to be aware of that.
And they have to be aware of the new role that Hamas is playing knees in the Egypt.
He you know is obviously much more sensitive to and much more attuned to Hamas then previous rulers were in Egypt and that changes the game for the United States so I absolutely agree they're gonna have to put more pressure on -- -- how do you do that I think has got to be done very delicately because.
They cannot get out ahead and then I mean I don't think they can get out ahead -- him or an honest because if they do.
They could put -- in an untenable situation of having to go the opposite side and that's exactly what we don't want.
Do we do we use hate as a weapon into pressure the egyptians of course we did on new -- we don't have aren't as opposed to what you can now.
-- there or they're just not that many options for -- fortunately aid is desperately needed there food aid in particular is desperately needed there and we have.
So that's according you've got to believe is being played but is he was just saying and -- -- and relating to the point -- made previously.
You have to be incredibly.
-- you say this and how you say this -- you darn -- cannot do is be caught in public essentially.
You know demanding that Egypt do acts in order to get why Hamas this -- got to be very backroom very quiet.
Because -- -- says we -- where it's very easy for us to put.
-- leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood.
In an untenable situation the flip side -- that he is which very interesting -- back and look where we are now suddenly the Muslim Brotherhood is a kingmaker.
In the Middle East they've gone from being an outsider in the old regime.
-- taking power in this regime and now being legitimized on the world stage by having such a vital role in such -- high profile conflict.
So but you know although the downside stakes.
For the new Egyptian leadership are huge.
The upside is also very cute because if they do manage to help bridge the gap here and earned credits around the world and kudos.
For having done that.
There -- gone from you know kind of an extremist outside action to a powerhouse in the Middle East and in the blink of an odd.
All right Bob rice managing partner about tangent capital in Cheney's NATO of Iona College.
Great to have you both very -- -- today happy Thanksgiving to both of you.