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Good morning I'm Doug shown time.
Here with my colleague absolutely -- four.
Political insiders unfortunately.
Our colleague and friend Pat -- Is on home -- in South Carolina and our other colleague and friend Ed Rollins is little under the weather perhaps a bit more.
Thanksgiving and that he bargained for but John and -- higher here to hold down the fort and we would.
Encourage your reactions today join -- live chat let's make this as -- show as we possibly can -- -- today we'll get to all questions and comments so we welcome your thoughts but John I want to begin.
With what is topic number one.
Certainly at the Thanksgiving I went to and I suspect.
Many which is the fiscal cliff and what does it mean as we sit here now.
Do you think we're going over it will there be a deal what do you see what do you expect what have you.
-- I think there will be a deal.
I think there's more more talk Doug on both sides of giving him a little bit there's more talk really on the Republican side about giving in on the taxes on the rich side of it.
-- as Dick Durbin over the weekend said Social Security's not even on the table in this thing.
But I think that these -- public negotiations.
Of a private deal that is in the works.
And I get the feeling that everybody knows they have to do something now pat what is said sitting here.
Because he set -- two weeks ago they're gonna punt three months kick it down the road three months do you think that -- -- as possible.
Don't go well I do own my own take.
Probably a little bit closer what you're presenting his pats.
I don't see that the Republicans are willing to raise the rate.
At all they talked about limiting deductions.
For putting a cap on deductions.
I think there is a formula that wounded perhaps due both to you know raise the rate appointment half or two and limit deductions.
But I don't see us getting there that quickly certainly not publicly -- you raise a point John that I think our viewers need to focus on.
So much of what goes on in politics happens behind the curtain rather than in front of the current.
But that being said you usually can get some sense of it.
In front of the curtain to figure out what's going -- behind in this case maybe I'm missing it may be it is going on.
But I don't have a sense that the Republicans.
Have come off their position I watched Eric -- this morning on another network and can't turn.
Stuck to the talking points his basic message John was we can raise revenue where we want to avoid the fiscal clip.
But we want a reform entitlements which is -- rent -- -- and we see no -- rhetoric from the Democrats.
Other than above -- comment by President Obama in his press conference couple weeks ago that they are willing to do that.
You know -- let me -- were I think.
Sure where I think the Republicans are going to be players told the senate Republicans there is wavering there on the tax rate inquiries.
Saxby Chambliss came -- shocked actually.
As I consider him one tough conservative.
Blew off Grover Norquist and -- ticked off Norquist a lot.
The Lindsey Graham a week earlier had talked about maybe wavering on Norquist it's the house Republicans sort of a more -- ones -- And it's the ones you had gone to talk -- rather than a senior party freshman or now -- -- hours.
They're the ones who are seem to be locked in on the Grover Norquist no new taxes thing.
Here's what I think is going on I think Boehner having tried it a year ago if Obama.
Wants to try it again.
Always done this time as he's taken more control the Republican conference.
He has figured out -- neutralize somehow Eric -- a little -- and he's gonna do this deal he's gonna make the grand bargain.
It's gonna include all the entitlement reforms pentagon spending and raping and the debt ceiling increase.
That has to be a part of a he's gonna get 218 votes from the Democrats.
And from Republicans who are not nor -- people.
He's gonna isolate this group of Norquist people some of -- will break northwest but -- stack a lot of of these Tea Party W Gregory it's gonna say don't want.
I know you're worried about -- Tea Party primary against you in 2014.
If you go along with this deal.
I'm gonna help him.
You don't have to vote for quite get 218 votes so you won't have a primary.
But in return you're not gonna depose me as speaker of the house I'm doing this deal for the country.
You can do your thing but we're gonna get 218 votes as the Republicans cannot afford.
To be the ones that take us over the cliff and I think those guys you talked to.
A lot of them would go -- long love it because their thing is not taxes on the rich its debt reduction.
And a four trillion dollar debt deal over ten years is it politically good deal to run for reelection on if everybody's for -- -- would.
-- with that I think the other thing that the Republicans are figuring out on is that their brand is in trouble they may well have come out of the election losing the presidential.
Are you less narrowly -- the numbers are coming out there was a three and a half point out was say 33 and -- just.
I think needs it's a metaphorical 334.
Thousand votes in four states going the other way and Romney -- won but you know this is in horseshoes it's politics.
Close doesn't count.
The other thing is the fact that the Republicans.
Held the house is not.
Really all that.
Relevant given what you are now suggesting three and a half points on the presidential.
And losing two seats in the senate when the Republicans were expected to pick up.
Control of the senate.
So I think the Republicans understand there's a problem to your point Eric Cantor did not.
Setting a combative tone for the dialogue today I did not.
Here that this morning so I think you're probably right the problem -- With the Tea Party argument and it's our -- One that zone I don't think we're fully you know address now is the issue in the set -- primaries.
That is Lindsey Graham to get a primer.
Senator McConnell can -- -- to get a problem Primerica Saxby Chambliss to get a primary.
And that is the vulnerability.
I debated Norquist on this network about two weeks ago.
There is no flexibility.
In his position -- he believes that there's a magic path to growth.
From lowering tax rates and that's still -- way he thinks we're gonna get growth the basically.
Would take the Clinton years where the rates were higher -- we had stronger economic growth -- than we've had the last four years.
And his attitude is that's either anomalous sort.
Due to factors.
On related to.
The high tax rates of the time.
There's an existing column.
New York Times by Steve Rattner basically saying he's never met a capitalist.
Who was impacted by our tax rates and he also said you've got to get rid of carried interest which is state.
Tax break that for the hedge fund had its borders and leave the property of the private equity guys.
Use so I look I think one way or another really get higher taxes on the wealthy there is one issue that has not been considered fully.
If you cap deductions.
Either for the wealthy.
Across the board -- limit the home mortgage deduction charitable deductions deductibility of state local taxes directly.
You're gonna hurt new York and California the people that voted for Obama.
And the problem you face is we're not just Florida.
And you will you -- the -- did arms to say that's right everybody moves to Florida or -- Nevada.
Perhaps Arizona bottom line.
At a certain point in time it becomes an economic to live here.
For people and you could say well a lot of people have to be here and that's true but a lot of people don't have to be here.
And you will see people moving to Florida and that is an issue for a New York State.
And California so it's all well good -- cap deductions but it's another thing to.
Take the impact of that on.
I heard Bob cork or.
Junior senator from Tennessee today on the radio talking about he's got a 250 page plan to do four trillion dollars in debt reduction over.
Without raising taxes on the rich -- -- cap deductions of fifty grand a year.
He didn't get into what's the result of that -- -- charities are going to be losing a lot of that money is given because it's deductible.
The real estate market can ill afford -- thing to interrupt -- little.
Recovery that's going on.
I don't know you know I I think that there's some give going on among Republicans let's get to the politics of -- -- We're political insiders will Republicans benefit from this -- yes.
Why why -- you senator because they're gonna get off this obstinate this feeling that their stock and some meant and they never listen and they never change and there a party.
Helping the rich this is one of the big problems with the Republican brand as I said you luck this week.
The way to -- it is in order for you Joseph and Mary middle class not to have increased taxes is all right.
It's to save you.
Made your boss pay a little bit more.
And you think the Republicans.
By acquiescing will be able to strengthen their position I don't.
I think this is going to be a huge win for the president.
I think the president has got the upper hand I think he demonstrated that the press conference.
I'm worried that we're gonna get less than a grand bargain and something akin to a grand framework.
And I'm worried that we will avoid the fiscal cliff but that we're not gonna really resolve the issue and I worry that we're gonna face a recession next year.
That could be.
Perhaps not like 1937.
But certainly not the robust economic growth we all are -- then.
I think public opinion if that happens and I know that that's a big yes and what we want to avoid but if it does happen.
I think -- opinion can and will turn against the Democrat.
It's all -- if there's another recession on Obama's watch.
-- he won't get the blame for there's no question and he would have squandered.
This gift called George W.
Bush that helped him into election and that's one of the other points that I think.
The commentators have not fully articulate.
Bush was blamed by more people on Election Day.
For the fiscal problems.
Of the last four years and was Barack Obama that's an extraordinary number and it explains.
Why this election went the way the way it did.
You know the other question that I ask and I will get to it in the next block.
-- we have we've discussed.
For a grand bargain.
I think we both feel that something will happen next year or could happen next -- hopefully before.
We have a downturn.
But the real question I would ask is given what's going on in the Middle East.
And the possibility of new appointments secretary of state.
Secretary of defense head of central intelligence.
Will there be a fundamental change.
In US foreign policy will there be an investigation.
Of the -- guys and and who is going to most.
Get the job of secretary of state those are the questions that we will take up when we come back in thirty seconds thank you.
Welcome back I'm Doug shown I'm here with my.
Friends and colleagues are absolutely -- where political insiders we are typically joined by Pat Caddell who -- Home leaving Charleston, South Carolina we will have him back we guarantee.
Next Monday morning and -- Sunday on the Fox News Channel and our colleague and friend Ed Rollins who.
Joins us a -- from time to time.
Is unfortunately a little under the weather too much Turkey.
But we'll get -- back in the rotation.
As soon as and as more than.
-- has more than -- spots starter -- long reliever.
But John I -- turn if I can.
Will she be secretary of state will should be held accountable for her comments on Libya.
How do you see this -- Well it's changed since a week ago how is subject -- because of over the weekend McCain softened on whatever -- on face and -- he was sorry it was FOX News Sunday FOX News Sunday he softened.
How -- Ubisoft.
He was nicer towards our city be willing to listen -- yes it is really changed earlier than that when she came out last week since we've got our last show.
And she held a press conference and said in that first time she's talked about those five Sunday appearances that she was just going by the intelligent she was given.
And I think that Lance the boil a little better.
Graham has sort of softened Lindsey Graham of running mate of -- McCain.
And I think -- both softened they'll still vote against her but I think it allows the president to nominate her which I think he wants to go.
Will there be a filibuster.
I don't think so I think maybe why why not given the anger that exists Silverman guys think that the -- dissipate.
What why is it this and as time goes on they've heard from Petraeus they don't blame her now that you can't really blame her.
For what she was told to read on the air you gotta blame higher ups.
We still don't know who changed the talking points.
That will come out if there I think if there confirmation hearings for her that's the place -- guys who will be -- but by then we're talking.
January February when I don't I just so much happening in the world the fiscal cliff we talked about Morsi in his decrees and Egypt.
The uranium thing Israeli elections I just don't think -- godsey will be as white hot and issue.
So you believe that the Obama administration's calculation.
That they could get through the election.
Without addressing many -- After the second debate.
Will ultimately be born born true -- And you are -- Predicting on political insiders.
Yes or no.
That Susan Rice will be our next secretary of state yes I would agree with that -- I think she will be secretary of state.
I think that the president made it clear in -- press conference ten days ago that he was going in that direction.
I think since that time.
The Republicans have blinked and let me tell you why I think -- -- and I think I'll echo your your view because I think you're largely on the money.
Bottom line the Republican brand is in trouble they have looked intransigent.
Look like they've had no -- ideas of their own and they had not had any formulations.
To deal with current problems.
If they'd just say no to Susan Rice.
I think it could be calamitous for the Republican Party -- If they shut the senate down to block her appointment I think both McCain and Lindsey Graham.
Understand that they might well have some short term success in blocking the appointment.
But the howls from the media and public opinion would be so substantial that they would lose in the long term.
I think that is there conclusion.
I -- goes back what you said before the break to Republicans since losing -- selection and they all lost those faces a terrible here and and they are.
So reeling from -- they don't yet.
Have a clear enough head to analyze what to do to fix the problem and this looks like making it worse it.
-- had African Americans against Republicans and the women's vote went against us.
Why go after an African American woman who's got the credentials.
Now her real problem which is not a public issue.
Issues of prickly personality who has ticked off a lot of people in twenty years in Washington in the foreign policy world.
She's abrasive she's not diplomatic.
But I don't think that'll -- publicly because no one knows about it.
I think you're probably right but John let me ask you this.
Are we running the risk.
In the Middle East fueled by Iran.
In between Israel.
With Egypt as an honest -- not so honest broker how do you see that and what -- the implicate.
Today this is the issue -- -- guys he's gonna fade is what's happening right this minute.
In Cairo with -- and I read a great piece either yet last night by Thomas Friedman in the times where.
Where we're at a key position here a moment in history -- Morsi.
Can do one or two things he can along with his takeover of the government which is terrible.
He could use his Arab influence on Hamas.
Shut them down a little bit work with Israel and work with the good Palestinian.
And change the whole way we look at this issue.
Or he could be the Islamist we have we're afraid he has.
Work with Hamas to strengthen them against Israel and the whole thing's gonna go to hell on a hand basket he is the key player what does -- -- there.
And what should we -- should we give them billions of dollars -- no I mean we have to be right on them.
We had to be right only be right on him for not giving a mate wallet we give aid if he he's got it.
Step back from these proclamations over the weekend which were done.
After -- brokered the deal between Israel Hamas he was -- so good about himself he grabbed all the power made it appointed himself -- love.
The judicial review it reminded me a little bit -- memorable line -- -- you don't maybe our viewers to win.
Watergate was sort of coming out Nixon was on ten keeps saying to someone ball when the presidents says that it's the law.
All in our country that is not -- it -- it -- isn't the case now but in that place where they don't live by constitution like we do because they're rewriting their constitution.
Where their newly elected president and he is an elected president citi's credit narrowly elected -- But he won an election that was deemed to be fair by international inspectors.
For him to say I am now dissolving.
The courts and prosecutors and all the things I say our.
A -- judicial review the most frightening thing we've seen well in the Middle East outside the.
-- read I read Friedman's article too when I must say I have a slightly more pessimistic view than you think it was a very good analysis.
But I think -- -- ultimately comes down on the side of the back -- above the bad guys and Hamas.
And potentially even the Iranians just -- that's where.
Locus of power is -- we have to.
Pay the money is as unfortunate that is but I don't see what are leverages other than using the money as a tool and bottom line I'm not sure it's a strong enough tool to keep -- where we need him to big area I worry.
That the Israeli elections will produce an emboldened right wing week in the Likud at the expense of the far right.
Which will only further -- polarize things.
The -- that this that the thing is the money that we now give is to keep.
Then Egypt from fighting Israel that's what the monies for -- -- force Camp David.
They want more money -- -- that right Egypt's broke.
They need money badly no one else is gonna give -- -- but us as usual and that is the leverage we have on the -- And the problem is in terms of their own economy.
One of their biggest industries is tourism and who's gonna go there yeah I -- I was -- -- you wanna go look at the pyramids while I -- it is government partners wants to bulldoze the parent yes that's cracks are thought.
I've looked at the pyramids and it's site to be -- but I somehow.
I'm not looking to go to -- square tomorrow.
Notwithstanding the historic significance of what happened over a year ago that there so I look at the situation job.
As we sit here we've got a divided congress the Democrats with the upper hand international -- I dare say domestic events.
Developing in a way that could undermine the political.
Credibility of the Obama administration.
The only thing that I say it works to the -- -- administration's.
Advantage of the Republicans.
Who are hopeless I think they need a -- -- I think they need to come up with something that they stand for.
What is the Republican argument I don't think we know and John if you were advising.
Eric Cantor and most of all John -- what would you tell.
-- number one I think before we get to policy.
They got to change a bigger picture package which is.
The tone of how they conduct themselves -- that come from my era under Reagan.
Which was -- it -- Reagan he was a nice guy -- -- he had humor.
He tried to convince you by telling his story and asking for your help he never got mad -- people.
Then he was gone and the party has changed -- that the image is changed into a nasty chip on my shoulder to my way or the highway.
Obstinacy that has infected all the leaders of the party even -- had a and Ronnie was suppose in nice guy didn't -- offers a nice -- came off on that 47%.
Videos and mean.
Hard about the by -- constituencies.
I mean I think until they change their whole outlook on America and our fellow Americans.
Why do you want to be in public life.
If you think your fellow citizens are bombs.
Thank you might think they -- misguided -- in which case -- -- I might leadership could turn their thinking around that's okay.
But he can't be thinking ill of your fellow citizens.
Well I -- -- John you don't think ill of your fellow citizens and certainly -- Ed Rollins.
Don't but what I do.
Suggest is that -- dictate some time.
Require me to thank you thank you thank our viewers and say we'll be back 530 on Sunday on the Fox News journal.
With political insiders and back here 1030 next Monday we thank you for joining us and we promised that -- and NORAD will join us.
Next week and we are political insiders thanks for tuning it.
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