Power Play 11/26/2012
What constitutes a tax hike? Will democrats deal on entitlements? And Senate landscape begins to take place
- Duration 25:09
- Date Nov 26, 2012
What constitutes a tax hike? Will democrats deal on entitlements? And Senate landscape begins to take place
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Would he do with the money.
I want a -- -- debt and cut rates to create jobs but I will violate the pledge long story short.
For the good of the country only if Democrats would do -- -- reform.
And that was senator Lindsey Graham from the great state of South Carolina.
On this week which is ABC's Sunday news talk show.
And this is power -- you were.
Favorite Internet political talk show and I'm Chris firewall and welcome back we hope that you are feeling appropriately bloated and gore -- gore urged.
From your Thanksgiving holiday so that you can understand what it would be like to be the federal deficit.
That's good that's good you're stuffed slowly to the brand.
From your Thanksgiving -- Here in Washington in the name of the game right now is that the time is running out it's almost time.
For the fiscal -- the physical and as we like to say.
Is here that means that automatic cuts across the board cuts in defense.
In social program spending -- do but so are scheduled it increases.
To everybody who pays federal income -- race plus.
We're almost out of borrowing room we have all of this plus the doc fix which has to do with Medicare we have all of these problems that we have to deal with.
And right now.
And this -- what happened on the Sunday shows the senator Graham and others we see the outlining of these positions about where it's going to come from.
We're gonna talk about what's gonna go in the deal from the Republican side in the democratic side we're gonna do both of those things you'll enjoy that.
Also we will have a super awesome and all and we will talk about.
This state of the race for the United States senate.
I know it's still -- twelve you don't wanna do it yet I I know you're not ready to go there but the politicians are already going there we have the first declaration and a major race that happen.
It's -- just happened this morning it's it's going on now so you can either avert your eyes or you can be prepared.
The fact that yes we will have to have another election we'll do all of that.
Limited part of it was Matthew commented.
I see is the editor in chief of the Washington -- and that's hyphenated I hope.
And you are -- who folks should be reading and I would encourage you.
But to follow.
He and his colleagues work -- free weekend.
Which seems simple enough very easy very easy.
So here's the thing.
For the Republicans the pledge that we heard.
Senator Graham talking about there was the Americans for Tax Reform.
Grover nor western great -- man of vision Democratic Party they have blamed many of the ills in the nation on Grover Norquist.
But it is a pledge that says that almost every Republican lawmaker has signed over the years.
It's senator Graham which says I won't vote for any tax increases of any time.
Period now it's become we see in the papers today we see everywhere -- talk shows just that.
That there are Republicans who say -- -- -- from Georgia.
He came from new York and Graham and others you know what I'm -- I'm willing to break the pledge to get a deal.
In the minds of conservative Americans what constitutes a tax cut tax -- Does have to be raising the rates or does it also include closing loopholes to bring up the amount people -- back.
Sure well I say I mean a tax hike is a tax hike so it either way taxes are gonna go up four that wealthier Americans -- And wealthiest defined of course and making more than 250000.
Dollars a year at this point it may change they -- index it to make it up 500000 higher.
The question is in the debate is what's the difference between tax revenues and tax breaks and the most important Republican John Boehner.
Has shown that I think he's open to some sort of negotiation that raises revenues.
By closing these loopholes crafted in capping them like Mitt Romney suggested during the campaign but keeping the rates to -- Right now we and exactly what's funny about all of this is -- discovers Republicans.
Apostate on taxes and all this stuff and I keep thinking with a guy who ran for that party's.
The guy who was -- party's nominee for president.
Was proposing the same thing and there was no hue and -- go up right.
Well and Romney because it let's remember he was saying he was gonna make it revenue neutral right those -- the Republican favorite words is that they're they're gonna -- rates.
So that you couldn't have extra growth extricate economic growth and more tax revenues out.
Revenue neutrality -- words that are not coming from John Boehner or or Eric Kantor who's considered the leader of the conservative wing in the house of represented so.
I think that what that shows is the Republicans are resigned that taxes will have to go up.
This this question -- do we do that by capping deductions and loopholes.
And hold the line on rates or do you just have a complete collapse now what -- Gotten it sounds like is that he talked in the summertime and when they did the first deal that led to you.
The triggers that are now have us pinned up against -- fiscal cliff that fiscal -- Was that.
About 800 billion dollars there's about one point six billion that's needed here and in total.
And that's just to meet these goals this that.
They picked that number because they think that number it's not tied to anything because we're running up about a trillion dollars.
A year and you know its its beloved by the -- six they wanna reduce over ten years over the next decade they wanna basically.
Take down deep blue rate of adding to the dead.
But I have a 160 billion dollars a year and in the process of that -- had talked about doing half.
Through this kind of stuff.
Can they hold they are are they gonna have to offer.
More than that to get a deal so I think -- may have to offer more of that to get -- -- simply because Obama won the election.
Brian that's I think there's Washington for the last two years -- is thought OK there's the questions would be settled.
The questions that remained after the debt ceiling fight -- August 2011 would be decided either way by the outcome of November 2012 election.
If Romney had won with Paul Ryan there we would have seen a tax reform and a budget deal that was more favorable on Republican terms -- not a decreased.
But Apollo one -- Democrats picked up the seats in the senate so.
That that means that it I think Boehner is resigned -- the terms will be more favorable to Obama however.
You Obama calls for a balanced approach and balance means okay Republicans are conceding we will raise revenues what is Obama and the Democrats bringing to the table and I think we need to devote a lot of more concentration on what is happening on the left.
I think Obama is willing to save -- this age of eligibility for Medicare -- Social Security now ligament.
Mike Emanuel is going to be tournament he's gonna talk about all that stuff so you can't I can't speak -- don't steal this -- pressing the new but I don't take don't take -- stuff here's said a couple of chats oh by the way.
Do you follow me on Twitter -- he's now.
I don't know why you're not it's it's really too late it's it's it's been too long so -- did.
Tears a couple things -- tanks says they will kick it down the road any bets.
Easy that yes there's just not enough time would you agree that there's not enough time Matthew to get -- for them to do a big deal.
They're good argument framework right right David have the so I guess -- conventional wisdom is they have -- short term deal to say here's the -- tonight we're gonna have spent 2013 talking about tax for.
-- That's that's fun.
And here's what diddly squat says -- -- -- I saw you in Star Wars episode four yesterday getting choked by -- leaders force grip nice work -- -- on that -- -- -- here.
I can't remember the name of the guy who got her that I think he's nameless it -- but I -- I guess I can't remember -- appearance he must be very.
Handsome devil then if in fact the time is -- -- but nice to know that the Internet so they're keeping deal.
Matthew we thank you very much thank you -- and you Internet.
You're gonna get a chance to keep it real when we come back win your friend.
Mike Emanuel will be here and we'll talk about whether the president can get his party -- line when it comes to talking about entitlement reform.
When it comes talking about where you get money from rich people but we'll talk about those things when we come back just to correct.
From my side of the table.
Bring entitlement reform into the conversation Social Security set aside doesn't add to the deficit.
But when it comes to Medicare and Medicaid protect the integrity of the program but give -- solvency for more and more years.
-- Dick Durbin he's no Republican he's no fiscal conservative he's in Baghdad very liberal democratic senator from Illinois.
-- power play and that senator Durbin was there on this week George Stephanopoulos was having hey -- -- fiscal cliff fiscal cliff.
Wrap up weekend they are on the show and what you heard from Durban.
Who was one of the early patrons of Barack Obama when he came into the US senate was hey look.
Lisa security -- of Medicare and Medicaid that's okay we can do this stuff.
But he doesn't seem to be in the majority in his party so far so far.
What we're hearing from Democrats is a lot of resistance to the idea.
That any of this one point six trillion dollar target that the president and speaker of the house trying to get you in lowering the -- the amount of deficit spending over the next decade.
That any of that stuff is gonna come from these entitlement programs.
So the president needs a deal -- -- gonna get one you know probably announce.
My commitment you know why he knows -- he covers congress like crazy and also we thank you Mike for filling in for last week well.
Me and the little power plays at.
Had Thanksgiving son and all that stuff so thank you we know the guy on the sidelines who holds the boards generally pretty popular -- has to make any bad plays in this case you're still more popular than I am but it's an -- to -- create exactly totally totally easy simply by being in West Virginia I've I did great and -- -- -- OK so here's the thing.
The Republicans have as we talk about the previous -- Republicans have already been opened with a -- they said.
But people are gonna rich people are gonna pay more taxes -- income -- gonna pay more taxes they're having a debate over how to do that.
On the democratic side though.
There seems to be a lot of sticking on this issue that president seems to say yeah we're we're gonna have entitlements end here.
But there doesn't seem to be a lot of open -- on the subject.
Correct a lot of people feeling like -- Obama won.
And so movie should have all the leverage in the world in terms of people on his side and so there is a reluctance to to throw some of these sacred cows of the Democratic Party.
Under the table if you will I talked to a key leadership -- Right before the Thanksgiving holiday who said that.
He thought there was a pathway forward.
On doing this.
In a way that did not violate anybody's principles.
And so does that mean.
You know loopholes deductions.
You know capping deductions that sort of thing.
What does it mean in terms the Democrats it what you may be seeing is some Democrats worry that the president's going to cave.
It's gonna be -- a deal struck by John Boehner and President Obama.
And then so they're trying to get out ahead of it and say whoa wait a minute why it why we have to throw.
-- time -- reform into the match.
The president the reality is this and this is short -- but either he's going to have a deal.
Where he's gonna have an economic disaster because if they if they go off the cliffs.
He's gonna start his second term economists say likely in a reception for that if this is it if they can't do business here that markets are going to respond very negatively.
To the idea of impasse even with all of these even with all these chips on the line.
But on the other hand to get a deal he's gonna have to do things make -- -- -- -- That's there's no question about that and I think that you're seeing some anxiety from Democrats about.
What he may be willing to give up and in a lot of Republicans I talked to say you know.
When they were doing the debt ceiling deal last year.
He -- significant entitlement reform on the table and a big way and so that may be making some of his.
Same party members.
Anxious about what he's gonna do in this deal but bottom line.
You know it's probably going to be a deal struck between the speaker and the president and and they're gonna need to figure out how to get it across.
The finish line with their respective -- constituencies.
And one of the challenges -- -- and house.
The Democratic Caucus is more liberal than their democratic colleagues in the senate.
Means close he's still in charge.
Of -- of those folks and there's been strong resistance there.
On this question of race.
Amount -- -- loopholes closing loopholes purses increasing rates you can why does this matter so much to Democrats why did they care so much.
About this question of whether it's a close -- -- increased rates.
They seem to want to pound of flesh in terms of making the rich pay more and so you see the speaker's office coming out this study -- just a few moments ago saying 65% of Americans -- tax reform.
And spending cuts over raising tax rates and so they're selling that hoping to say look the American public.
Is okay -- closing some loopholes having the upper income folks not being able to.
Deduct as much as they have been able to do.
But the Democrats are clearly saying let's raise rates on those who make more.
Then the average American and -- make them pay for.
Now a part of the argument and there is that if you get if you close -- -- -- It's one thing but if you raise the rate you've set the new bar.
And that goes forward that the loop holes are easier to change but if you raise the rate then it's it is harder for the Republicans to try to dial that back later and we've also heard you know hey let's just go back to the Clinton Era where.
There were great times in nobody's gonna get hurt by that -- so they're trying to sell that.
There's a lot of are going to do before between now and Christmas how much and bit.
Really really really are -- Folks who I mean I know that among Republicans there's a core group of sort of libertarian minded Republicans that are OK if that is the cuts -- Of the cliff goes into effect they definitely don't like tax increase part.
But among the Democrats are there really people who would say let's just -- it let's just let's just jump.
I think Patty Murray was one who came out and says you know let's go over the cliff and then you know -- there's people who are saying well the president have have more leverage.
In the new year because then he consider the Republicans well now let's do the middle class tax cut.
And then are the Republicans get a vote against that -- you know it's it's big calculations.
And I think as we get closer and closer to Christmas you're gonna see the markets start to reflect their anxiety.
About are they getting this done are they gonna do it or they gonna punt again and so there are a lot of people out there will tell you.
That you know closer we get to the fiscal cliff the markets will respond and in the question is will the damage -- be done.
How much do you think lawmakers really pay attention to the markets when this stuff is going that they want to note that yes absolutely and I think if he does -- -- -- -- when people see there for a one case going down and saying.
Parity against somebody and people from Jersey that's who's -- -- people absolutely that's just following regulations Charlotte -- on a successful football seasons in the Big Ten Big Ten.
Big twelve it's tough -- -- -- -- you know as we have been talking a lot of mountaineer football power play lately.
It's been tough out there but might we thank you very much extra.
Judy -- points as my state of Maine is already feeling the entry sequestration and the automatic cuts jobs have already been cut.
In Pratt both at the bath iron works which is a big deal for our navy.
And at our hospitals.
Is this trend continues between thirteen and if so how long -- this fight really left.
Well it could last two really long time JD but most likely what is happening now is that people are and we saw this -- -- in the Washington Post.
That defense contractors holding back there holding back in building up cash reserves to see what's gonna happen and then they'll redeployed.
I think that's generally what you're gonna see is that we're gonna see a period -- -- -- this.
Through the end of this year and into the beginning of next year and then once -- clarify themselves you'll see everybody make their moves and that's that's what's up with that.
I agree to take a quick break but when we come back we will have an all star -- in miniature.
Here to tell you what's up with the race for the United States senate I know I know we just had one but we gotta do it again.
-- you want to be smarter than everybody else because that's why you're here.
We appreciate that.
One -- those two people is likely to be the next senate majority leader after the 2014 mid term elections but which one we'll let me.
Mitch McConnell Republican from Kentucky.
Or Harry Reid Democrat from Nevada -- this power play welcome back.
Now the first challenge for Mitch McConnell.
Senator from Kentucky the commonwealth of Kentucky she's got to survive -- potential primary challenge.
That process is starting even isn't even as we speak.
That across the country people are starting to get out.
And get in front on -- is the hangover from election -- it's just getting over but we've already begun the work as a matter of fact today.
In West Virginia.
States and as we mentioned here on the show.
Shelley -- -- congresswoman from the second district of West Virginia has declared that she will seek the seat currently occupied.
US senate there's some people -- know because they're gonna help.
People trying to do that one party to the other that's -- on changes principle that -- -- -- and -- and that's mobile sounding.
And he -- -- mobile work.
Being at -- top flack for the speaker of the house.
And also for senate Republicans and our brand New -- -- -- -- child is with us that he is a man of the lefty is a union kind of Democrat union -- kind of Democrat.
And his firm is solidarity strategies appropriately enough.
But OK guys here's the thing I -- to show -- the map real quick 33.
Senate races across the country.
And a more Democrats than Republicans because if you're in the majority -- got more -- the fire than the other guys.
But 33 races across the country as you can see there on the map this is going to be.
And make it breaking year for the Republicans in it in a lot of weapons.
Bond even before shelling or Canada or as Dick Cheney once introduced are -- being at the event surely compete.
As she even isn't even before she can get out of the gate the Club for Growth.
He's already out there are saying she's no good -- she's a bad news kind of Republican can't have her.
As the Republicans look at.
Who they're gonna run this is gonna go.
-- as a great example she's.
Hi name ID in the state of father was the governor.
She's been in congress since 2000 she's got back -- She did looks like the republicans' best chance but it -- -- our candidates like this religion column gonna faced up front.
Yeah I mean insanity is the definition -- doing something over and over again expecting a different result.
And right now we have the same thing going into 2014 that we are going to 2012 we have more Democrats.
Then Republicans we have a good chance of taking a majority but it's like losing a football.
Once again we have outside groups that may not necessarily agree with.
Top contenders in different races like Shelley Moore capital that the -- -- appearance in addition to that we've got we have a -- here we have the senate Republican leadership.
Is -- how much they can influence these races around the country vs the outside groups.
Verses what's going on each of these states you know organically.
And we -- problems of that with -- -- well.
You know and -- -- -- very.
Should he says more agent yeah I mean it's it's extra clearly and and that's we have on our advantages time but at the same time you you when you have this so yeah we have you've gone didn't that in thirteen.
Birdie have a fight with -- announcing her.
Now imagine a check that the truth though is that for Democrats you guys are gonna have a lot of a lot of soft spots have absolutely going into the 2014 cycle and incumbent presidents.
Traditionally in their second term don't have happy to have a lot of things stacked against him six years ago we had a very good -- we want a lot of states we've probably had.
No business winning and now we have to defend those states that may mix in some states.
That will make Democrats go oh don't -- -- this -- good.
West Virginia -- North Carolina -- Virginia this Arkansas.
Louisiana for no wait and wait now Arkansas Louisiana yes.
But Virginia Mark Warner is is senator from Virginia and he's a moderate he is richer -- it's not a state it's not it's a purple states are all right it is a non presidential years the only reason why we won every election and everyplace that we played because he was the president did two years and the turnout was through the -- we all know sitting around here and -- -- -- years turnout will be not that that's not good for the Democrats it's going to be a tough -- we have to give up -- And work and hope that they nominate a whole bunch of tonic it's.
Well but now for you guys run you you have had.
For that for all the -- they can problems that you had.
You've also had some success you've had people like Brian hall and others who -- challengers that came -- and prove to be good it.
Richard Murdoch -- -- -- a look for a minute for a -- like he was gonna be a good challenger from the outside and then he had his admitted he had his bad gas.
What's better for Republicans to try to control the primary process and keep out people -- and keep that challengers.
Or is it better to try to train people were educate wall.
I I I think what's better is.
Well I think it's hard to say you want to have a candidate in your state that is not going to make major gaffe and molasses and -- wasn't no life I don't want study that's hard to control so that we we -- right now would have.
Most likely have to senate seats in her pocket if we wouldn't have had.
Those gas -- Would you be -- so I think you're gonna see you had asked me a wonderful -- -- remember we have to get the finest candidates who are well media trade.
We understand there when your debate the last few weeks now to talk her not to not to -- have already.
You're right -- -- not a good time in the election cycle to Judah.
Now and so for the Democrats -- you mentioned.
You talked about Arkansas and you talked about Louisiana.
He talked about these places for Democrats.
Of the plane -- And the 06 cycle in the 04 in the 06 cycles.
And again -- no way but -- had to do with.
In moderate running to the middle of it's going to be harder for some of these folks to get around when I think about Mary Landrieu.
In Louisiana particular that that's going to be a tough one.
-- and say they would Mark Prior in Arkansas I mean those states are trending away from Democrats.
It's going to be about getting that message out and making sure to keep themselves out of a primary I mean let's say let's make sure we all know that I've lived through this Arkansas remarkable -- -- -- down the left flooding eight primary is -- -- Lincoln not to long ago lie cheat and she barely survives there you almost got.
Right right government and the negativity that's in reverse lesson that we had to learn at that time.
We thank you very much we thank you for being with this you wise or patriotic you were decent human beings and I don't just say that is -- -- the West Virginia truck.
-- the points as christianity graphic of the car driving off a cliff with ominous music for this whole fiscal cliff -- And -- -- the -- congress plans for the moment blows up and then miraculously both guys just get out of the car.
And walk away.
It's Monday so there's no Charles today you know that you knew that coming into this or you're gonna be okay with that.
Good news Steve Brown is in for Jonathan on on -- -- he's in Chicago Steve Brown from way downtown will be there for you but before I let you go.
And that's -- power points.
Short term shuffle.
Here's the first PowerPoint there's an 800 billion dollar gap between -- the Republicans and Democrats are on taxes right now it's going to take some time to fill that the end.
And it's going to be hard to do and we've talked about kicking the can and all of those things but here's the second thing.
And failures not an option even -- -- short term plan if it doesn't look good enough where it looks like it's going to leave things -- you could precipitate a recession or.
But some bad anyway if it look like -- what was on the table wasn't gonna be big enough to do the job that's the reality so here's the third hour.
Our point and the third thing to remember.
Days that's the number of days between now and the first primary of the 2014 election cycle every day less that you have there.
Is one day where you're less likely to be able to do a big grand bargain a big deal that would put it together because just as we talked about with our panel.
People like Mitch McConnell they don't -- to be vote on this too close to their primaries so.
Those who say that may be time to do a bigger deal is in the short term maybe there aren't something so those are your -- this was your power play we hope you enjoyed it we certainly enjoyed being back.
We'll see you back here tomorrow at great.