Defcon 3 11-28-2012
Should the US be concerned about the military buildup by the Chinese? Plus – What you need to know about China’s new leaders
- Duration 27:55
- Date Nov 28, 2012
Should the US be concerned about the military buildup by the Chinese? Plus – What you need to know about China’s new leaders
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Welcome to Defcon three I'm KT McFarland and the hour each week here on foxnews.com live -- we dig deeper into the national security issues of the day.
We want you to join the conversation you now you can find me on Twitter at -- -- -- -- -- or join our live chat which is right here a lot of video window.
I always -- to get your questions and comments and we'll get as many of them into the conversations we can't.
And join me here on set -- -- doctor flawed genre he's going to talk is about the ever changing landscape in the Middle East.
He's a senior fellow at the Hoover institution.
And someone -- my colleague Lou Dobbs on Fox Business news says is -- smartest guy on middle latest.
So thank you very much after -- for being with -- yet again and ammunition to thank you cannot.
Didn't really seem to think we've heard the last of -- kind of in the Middle East they are sprang.
And apparently elections but now seems -- another chapter talk to us about what's going.
In Gaza and Israel.
We -- what we witnessing in Gaza it was not the first.
Israeli Palestinian war menu war and -- won't be the last thing in these -- these encounters.
This conflict between Israel and Hamas would -- -- conclusive they come back again.
And we could look at them and you can look at them it's almost like we have -- to us again.
And there's nothing new about these conflicts what you have is the conquest of Gaza by the Hamas people and Islamic Jihad.
And the usage of Gaza as a beachhead for it on to -- to both an Israeli Palestinian war and a proxy it on industry you'll.
So what was Israel's call them and bombing Hamas and -- you -- keep the I think is that it was -- about.
It's over -- plus sort of -- that was things that's what happening in the region that would unsettling the Israelis and it was insists that there would rockets being fired upon them and up on to cities.
Miller also Hezbollah and Lebanon and -- -- to drone open isn't as an act of defiance as an act of devastating.
That Hezbollah as a unit and it now has.
This brand new technology of the drone.
-- didn't get on an ascendant.
By Hezbollah in Lebanon and and it was the the full that he wouldn't.
Of and the and the breakdown of the peace on the Israeli city of border you'd have this border you have the cease fire that was negotiated.
Nearly forty years ago Landry decision I'll buy -- senate president in Athens and anticipated that the -- of a sudden.
The city addicted that is about the full of missiles.
Being fired from city and to Israel and is that it is -- -- About the the full of -- and about the kind of regime that would come off the bush -- -- like the Gaza.
Comes within this -- Plus -- of concerns.
That is an it's so sure increasingly -- feeling isolated and surrounded -- I think.
-- is they would always be isolated incidents -- -- Connor cruise O'Brien this you know celebrated Irish -- Wrote the book I think about 25 years ago -- the siege.
The siege this would never change is they would put -- live alone -- to an unknown entity should.
But Israel made peace with the dictators of the lesions that -- -- -- -- -- a and no.
-- wool of dictatorships -- collapse and Israel is looking Gado was even though it is a democracy.
It's loaded of that McConnell populist regimes that there are emerging in that region.
So who won who lost everybody seems to be claiming victory did Gaza Hamas Israel Iran.
-- veterans -- -- that as you of that region would never know sanity since everybody is a specific everybody's claiming victory.
-- -- and had a tape on the notion that that the Hamas won something big here it would digitally anyway.
Many many visitors came to Gaza -- could you visitors -- visitors to suddenly the people of Hamas can feel that they are not isolated.
Did they live in this very very favorable.
An arrangement in -- Oakland.
But the oldest leaders who came to this happened to visit Hamas in Gaza they'll get to go home.
The only people who stayed home in Gaza.
In the -- of Gaza and the decimation of Gaza is none other than the Palestinians themselves so made either the war lords of of Hamas and know construct like roosters on the world stage but the people who because of the Palestinians themselves -- them.
160 Palestinians were killed they now have to pick up the -- -- -- again.
In the most densely confidence and is part of a positive.
At a shift a little bit to take each -- -- okay we saw Mohammad Marcy.
Seemingly negotiating brilliant -- this peace agreement -- ceasefire between Israel.
And Gaza and then the next day he seizes dictatorial powers let's -- it's.
Beautiful timing and the man has a great timing for one if you listened to President Obama -- Obama was flexing political.
About how -- -- he said he has an engineer's mind he has an engineer is precision.
And our president didn't really appreciate that most of these Muslim Brotherhood leaders scientists and engineers and that even the leader of al-Qaeda.
I misled is a brilliant physician but we leave that alone.
So you have.
You have Mohammed received.
And -- on on Wednesday he negotiates an Israeli Palestinian accord.
He he is a good man he's a -- -- -- and and on Thursday he imposes the draconian state of emergency on his own country.
It's a page from the book of personal -- you do favors in the international scene and then you do depression told.
And makes it very difficult banned from the United States to start criticizing him -- -- -- aid or anything because he's just pulled off.
It's great peace agreement.
Oh yeah and I think anyway.
The Obama administration -- -- it didn't -- -- -- confused about what to do these with these Islamist regimes.
This -- you skipped about on their own we have to be feared they would not an American creation once in power.
What do you do with them have to accept the -- update these regimes give to via the -- box so -- way in this regimes.
But -- -- to for democracy but the question is.
Do they see democracy is it as as someone said I think.
It was a Turkish leader who -- you know perhaps democracy is is is -- dream and you get on him and then you get -- it.
We've got a really great questions from and JD -- content says with Iran shipping missiles.
To Syria is well Turkey and Israel remove -- alliance.
-- -- -- -- -- -- Did conflicting with each other -- date be used through the closeness -- for absolutely process.
As you know it's that time in government I mean this Turkish Israeli -- was an independent security.
This isn't feeling the enmity of the out of world used to -- to Turkey as a satellite.
The biggest in this who came to -- in 2002.
In Turkey prime minister of the one and his party are not favorable to residents so that is attention in Turkey.
The Turkish military favors Israel.
The -- estimates are not friends of Israel.
All right -- let's talk about Iranian -- going someplace else.
One of the objectives of Israel was to destroy the 101000 Iranian missile -- and Gaza including the long range ones capable of hitting Jerusalem Tel Aviv.
So those are gone will they be recent days.
Then come back did come back via the tunnels they'll come back.
You know from this is done did come back these these rockets.
You know Frazier five islands this ruckus I mean imagine when -- rocket.
When the would put -- -- me is dawn when you'd gone isn't rocket and it says he would decisions so miserable and so you know way detention hostility.
These rockets will come back there would -- -- supplied and is it would have to do it over and over again.
But resupply don't like habitat from from -- we don't know but they would be there they would they would be there.
And the question is what's with the war lords of Hamas what's been the -- of Hamas.
What would they need to do next if he was to be in that game.
They have a contest live without us and -- on the with the Palestinian National Authority and each one of -- the other.
Each one -- it's the other tomorrow I think November 29.
We understand that would have us the Palestinian leader and among -- going to bring to the United Nations.
This demand full they paid non state -- and status of the United Nations he would -- -- -- -- 12 to nine.
People would be interested because on November 20 ninth 194765.
Years ago was the -- -- -- solution.
That's creating two states.
Eight states with the Jews and the states was out of -- And that's ancestors and -- candidates fascinating decisions are so you have the Palestinians and Gaza you have the Palestinians on the West Bank they don't get along with each other -- -- -- Olympic Games.
But -- also 7080%.
Of the population and Jordan did as Palestinian as Jordan the next country.
With which will face instability.
Jordan it is a very unhappy country is it's the existential condition and showed -- his unhappiness.
I've known good enough for nearly like I think forty years I've never gone to Jordan unfounded and emotion of happiness there's a citizen.
Between the Palestinians and the east bank because that is between the Palestinians.
Abilities and inhabitants of of the east bank the Jordanians.
And the -- and that is that Hashemite dynasty.
It was a dynasty of outsiders.
Who came to that country and -- -- -- it's fairly well since its founding in 1921.
The problem -- Jordan now in my opinion.
Is you have a monarch Abdullah the Second who is not the equal and the ability to Monaco who Jordan.
Abdullah the first -- found -- of the country and a remarkable percentage Hossein look at Hussein was a genius king Hussein was a charmer.
He knew his country -- -- -- people.
He had the magical got a big language Abdullah is not his father and I think that is great and he's with the ministry custody it to him.
The dividend will hold because the Palestinians need Jordan the Jordanians -- Jordan the gulf states need Jordan as a buffer the Israelis need Jordan.
It's a convenience for everyone -- OK well thank you very much -- father Jonathan for enlightening us yet again.
The continuing turned my own little ways thank you I have great -- it's -- thank you so much for joining us and you can find him at could add Twitter.
At Hoover in its IN SC so HL OV ER and asked me and -- -- -- -- of -- senior that Hoover institution.
And we're gonna take a break and come back and focus over in China.
Welcome back to -- country I -- electron but -- switch gears now and the rest of the programmer and talk about China and kick it off we're gonna talk -- China's military build up but Michael Pillsbury is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.
He's an RDC bureau welcome back after Pillsbury throw to have you.
Thank -- T think you.
I ask you about we just seen in the last couple of days of the Chinese have the landed and taken off.
A new stealth bomber from the deck of their new aircraft here are we supposed to be concerned about the Chinese military in -- Chinese military build up.
Well in a general sort of way we're supposed to be concerned yes they have.
Economy half the size of our economy.
Right now -- percentage of despair and spending is relatively low but if they were to increase it.
To the level we stand at between three and -- and 4%.
They would be able to challenge just militarily in many ways that hasn't started yet but there -- a number of indicators that that's under consideration in China.
So what kind of a military -- -- are they trying to -- Well we don't -- outsiders don't know they this is one of the biggest issues over the last fifteen years.
That the Japanese the Indians are ourselves all asked the Chinese what kind of military capacity are you building what is your goal in five years or ten years.
Did you -- tell us how many submarines -- how many aircraft carriers.
You're going to build.
And the answer is basically none of your business we're not going to tell you because if we reveal such a thing.
We'll give away our deterrent power.
And we don't do that kind of thing because it lessons art of war tells us never to revealed to the outside world what we're doing -- a very maddening for everybody concerned.
And -- the Chinese.
You know dumb child paying always sort about a peaceful rise.
Not Saddam said to Henry Kissinger and and their initial meetings in the early 1970s.
You know if you have a war with China is so war that could last a thousand years.
Is this capability that the Chinese are trying to build us some -- -- military challenge -- I -- or is it more.
Like the Chinese have economic growth they have that place in the world and they want the military to go along with that without any necessarily any designs son conflict or -- access denial.
Well I know it's more of the second Henry Kissinger in his book lays out the fear he has was I think is proper.
That the it could be a World War I style conflict.
And major conflict between the US and China.
He devotes quite a long section two that at the end of his book.
And that he has recommendations for how to headed off so nobody is talking about there's no chance of military challenge at all from China.
But so far it appears to be mainly -- technological.
Economic and kind of competitiveness challenge if you will.
They have not started to have a major buildup.
That they could do that we're still in this transition period where it's not quite clear they're going to be had a Japan.
If you will.
With very low levels of military spending.
Ten years from now or they're going to feel threatened and -- And aggressive and have a much larger military force in ten years and they do now I don't think anybody knows the answer to that.
And many people have been surprised by Chinese military developments when they happen.
The anti satellite test did five years ago is a good example.
-- most experts.
Natalie did not predict that was going to happen they said it could not happen.
We have many people wrote many years ago five to ten years ago China will never develop any aircraft carriers at all.
Those people are embarrassed now they like to -- to recall those writings and make sure they're not.
Put on the Internet so the uncertainty is the only answer anybody can responsibly you have.
But I think -- passengers right we should be concerned about a possible war between the US and China chances are low we want to monitor things and make sure we don't.
Nudge into a World War I kind of disaster that's how I read the end of his book.
I would win.
One of the things that seems to concerned defended defence industry United States is -- theft of intellectual property that.
We spend tens of billions of dollars to develop high tech stealth bombers.
So fighters rather aircraft carrier's high tech capability even drones and -- the Chinese seem to be stealing -- with a click of the mouse.
And then showing up.
Like they did last week with a stealth fighter that looks an awful lot like American.
Aircraft is it should be done about that.
Well -- you know Kati is a question of who do you blame.
Is it the defense corporations.
Are not part of the US government we don't have a Chinese style system.
We Entrust private companies.
To protect their -- industrial security to pick their own secrets.
To have their own security force.
So when the Chinese as you imply steal from them.
It's the companies that have that are at fault I hate to blame the Chinese because all countries engage in espionage.
But I think the FBI has several years and -- out testified that the main intelligence threat.
To United States is from China.
That there's been no set of ideas are new programs for how to crack down one.
On this and we have a a lot of push back from private companies who.
Who don't really want to have a workforce that's a totally.
Protected and security conscious.
But it that this is the flow of secrets and intellectual property from our corporations.
To the Chinese other countries is really a national problem.
-- quickly let me ask you about the Chinese leadership should a transition.
Do you think it's going to be a more militant militarized leadership going forward.
Is a matter of some debate I've tried to explain my own writings.
That there are two responsible positions.
In Washington about the future China.
The last time there was a major leadership transition a lot of analysts wrote books that they wish they could recall.
They said Hu Jintao is a major reformer this man is a new generation.
Break out the champagne.
That was completely false there was a crack down human rights got worse.
-- military development continued.
Now I've noticed in the reefs in the comments about -- and -- in the new Politburo.
That one single analyst or newspaper reporter.
Has made that mistake again and say oh my god we have a whole new leadership in China reform is right around the corner this time you find much more caution.
In the New York Times the Washington Post various academic articles have been published there's a great sense of caution.
That this man looks good but there's been no evidence either way of how much reform usually going to engage it.
Well thank you very much for the update doctor Michael Pillsbury senior fellow at the Hudson Institute thanks for joining us.
-- -- And now joining us for the first time to talk about China's leadership transition and the US China relationship is stabilized.
He is the president of the national committee on US China relations a guy who live admired for a long time -- had a number of jobs in various administrations.
And he's that guy who also has been an investor has -- -- actually done the studies talked about during a major.
Investor in China so thank you so much for joining us today and I should say that your Twitter handle.
Is NC US ER national committee in US China relations got a cancer molecular entity -- delighted to have you.
The -- -- you at the same sort of passionate dissents -- -- What -- you see the Chinese leadership this is a major every ten years I have are complete change of leadership so where they gonna take us for the next ten years.
The the first -- say it's only the second time since the founding of the PRC that we've seen a peaceful transition of Chinese leadership that.
Ten years ago it happened but any time before that so it's actually you have to look at this transition which has occurred peacefully as a very positive development.
Where it's gonna take us I think I might put it fairly accurately we don't know.
Certainly what we do know is that five of the seven people on the standing committee of the Politburo.
Our only can it be on in that position for five years that the number one and number two she Jean ping and -- could -- the president in the premiere.
We'll stay for ten years but the other five are only there for four of the next five years in five years from now -- younger generation will come up.
So whether that means they're gonna engage in reform and they want to just.
Know that it's there there in a sense -- their final term or whether it means their place holders I think at this point it's too early to say.
We certainly see the difference from ten years ago when people were optimistic.
About this leadership making wholesale changes is the internal pressures on this leadership are enormous.
That the Internet that public protest is.
Many many times what it was ten years ago and the Chinese leadership is aware of it.
One thing that I've learned from dealing directly with them over these 35 years -- These guys know what's going on in their country their church to really well trained.
You may not agree with them on the decisions but those decisions are based upon facts on the ground.
-- the Chinese look and see what's happen in the Arab world the Arab Spring.
A lot of people think that that was in -- -- -- social media and then they look at China and say could we be next.
I think there was concern.
After the Arab Spring that led to.
-- tightening on social media that led to a tightening on protest in China.
That there was fear that that this could lead to some unrest.
Again I think when you look at polls in China.
I think that people are.
Reasonably happy you're more optimistic in fact that Americans finally polling data that -- Tells me that it's went on there I feel that people believe.
The Chinese have this great expression mean -- -- which is tomorrow is gonna be a better day and they actually believe that because over the last 33 years.
They've seen it true it -- change in their lives they eat better they live better.
They dress better they have better health care there's less infant mortality so you have all of these developments which gives people more positive view.
So the question as to why did the Chinese leadership.
React to the Arab Spring that way and I think the answer.
Lies in their age and your experience when they were youths -- culture revolution which was chaos beyond anything we can imagine.
This leadership went through their teenage years during that chaos and what that is led to his people who fear any level.
Of the instability.
More than you or I would they see any instability and they -- we have to stop it right now.
Whereas you and I we've had different experiences growing up would have paid more lenient attitude towards social protest.
Right so after that armchair psychology -- this -- leadership let me switch gears a little bit the Chinese foreign minister was on the show.
Two years ago and he said candidly we was talking about which you talked about that the life tomorrow is better -- -- life.
From the previous generation and that they've taken the largest transformation.
I've been the greatest number of people in the history of the world and move them from poverty.
Into -- working environment that they've taken people from the country and they put -- urban factors.
That seems to be slowing.
So what prediction you have what is the -- is going to hold China together for it's not the expression that you just sat in Chinese very able and.
Well first of all there is still a lot of low hanging fruit that they're still.
Hundreds of millions that need to move from the poor countryside into the wealthier cities which is gonna create still people having a better lives.
Life so I think that's -- -- not -- is -- it is slowing but it's not.
It's it's another decade before it really slows but I think the Chinese leadership realizes -- that they need.
Reform they need economic reform and they ultimately need political reform.
You know the economic and social reform is gonna come in the form of better health -- -- already seen -- you know more.
Access for poor people to the health care system is -- -- -- come -- better Social Security retirement benefits it's coming in funding of education.
So they understand they have to give -- -- people.
A better life and they are starting to do that these guys know it cold the questions aren't their vested interest that are gonna block.
Those reforms and -- -- -- and posting the vested interest would be hospitals that make money from corrupt medical system.
So if you have reform wouldn't tell you when you go and you register in -- hospital.
You have to almost paying a -- to see a doctor have to pay a -- to get surgery.
If you have Health Care Reform where people have insurance where the whole thing is is actually more regular -- regular -- that's gonna go away.
So you have a vested interest against the -- -- you have when you talk about currency reform something which they know they have to do.
Their interest let's say if -- textile manufacturer.
The listing you employ tens of millions of people even employ thousands or hundreds of pounds -- tens of millions.
R&B appreciate it becomes a more market oriented.
Is going down.
So you're in there is a vested interest saying don't do -- and it's gonna cost jobs it's gonna cost social stability.
So they form ineffective blocking element banking report.
The state owned banks have basically guaranteed margins if you happen.
They deposit rate which is guaranteed and you have a lending rate which is guaranteed you know I've been in this business for many -- you have -- guarantees.
-- you're gonna make money you -- before.
Why should you.
-- so good I have to work for a -- but I don't have these guaranteed.
I don't have these guaranteed margins in there so they become at times and blocking force to what the leadership knows and it's no longer the monolith six monolithic system that it was undermanned.
So you have diversity interest that are able to block reform you -- you.
He's had a few minutes ago that China as a country of -- -- their stones hundreds -- -- that more people that they want to move from the urban.
It to the urban areas so shyness and -- this question comes from one of our viewers of -- says what's China's and game and what.
What will they what are they see as fair and game expansion.
Well they don't you mean expansion in the sense of well I think the territory and -- -- -- -- series and game assist you can't deny that China does not see expansion is part of there that I wanna take over the -- Snow that they they're -- internally focused country.
And hand their problems are so severe that what they want on their frontier on their borders is peace and stability.
That they these are they are confronted with think some of the problems which you've -- I think you're confronted with environmental problems.
That are simply mind boggling when you travel around trying to today.
It's the -- is horrendous drinking water is unavailable and places because the pollution is so terrible.
They are our issues relating.
To land expropriation of their issues relating to corruption.
Which they know they need to focus on so -- their end game is to create a middle class society.
One where they lifted all of their people out of poverty but most importantly for them.
As it would be for the democratic and Republican Party in the United States to stay in power.
The Chinese Communist Party wants to stay in power.
President Obama the Democratic Party want to stay in power -- not it's not a critical comment it's a realistic combat so they have a plan.
As to how they can stay in power for the for a -- foreseeable future.
OK well thank you so much for.
And -- a lot of platforms Steve Orleans who is the national committee and US China relations thank you so much -- my foot and got to come back again I promise I will touch the surface thank you.
Well thanks for joining us today you can catch more -- -- and the Fox News Channel and on the Fox Business Network including -- Lou Dobbs tonight.
And don't forget foxnews.com -- will resume programming tomorrow morning.
At 11 AM eastern.