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Special Report Online: 12/5/12

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    Republicans to watch for 2016 race

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Welcome to another edition special -- on line I'm Brett -- us are we have been here for a couple of weeks it's been busy.

It's been busy around here if you haven't been here before.

Welcome aboard this -- where you can type in your questions or comments.

They appear.

Someplace on here and -- you can vote.

On these.

Polls underneath here.

I threw out if you don't see your comment or question don't worry it's popping up soon the first question who's most likely -- blame for the NFL tragedy.

You can vote in that Nancy from Alabama just said hurry up get started -- where we're under way.

Itself as you can say we react to the comments.

And we try to put him in as fast as we -- our panel of course Steve Peterson and Charles.

So let's.

I guess finish up with our discussion -- we have a lot of time to finish.

You were saying that you thought.

That Ryan -- were probably.

The lead of the pack but there are many others that that.

Have then there's a lot of time between here and there.

But I probably doesn't -- saying but it -- a bitterly yes it's it's quite obvious and Ryan being -- respectable.

Number two undertaken this is -- we've had that in the past -- coming out of 68 was immediately the front runner for 72.

Mondale after a front runner for 84 a -- -- -- losing vice presidential candidate.

But you acquitted yourself well your way out there and you're already a national.

Rubio was a guy who was just a little bit young this time around.

Could easily have been on the ticket when the made the difference.

He's almost national and essentially to kind of race for the -- -- to Florida that he really was filled -- -- a chance that.

He did well and of course he's Hispanic he understands.

And he's he's he understands that issue he can make inroads on that issue so he's clearly the one who sort of jumps out of the -- But remember this is -- we're gonna have a couple -- remember the midterm elections.

And are gonna have four years of ruinous liberalism between now and when he's sixteen so I think it's going to be a pretty.

Good prize for anybody who wants the nomination.

And that's where I think people are getting ready now and -- lots of people probably some of whom we haven't even heard about now who are giving themselves and thinking about.

You know decorating the Oval Office.

One thing is that.

-- you look at that.

Big events this fiscal cliff thing is a big event for setting up 2014.

And how 2014 is going to go and then if you look at 2014.

And how that battle grows.

That's gonna set -- -- sixteen so you know how the Republicans react to the fiscal cliff.

Will probably set up who's.

Going to be well I mean if what -- -- on missile crystal ball over four years of and ruinous them cause that liberalism is true then none of that will really matter -- -- complete failure.

Then what happens and -- fourteen is relevant again in about wool.

Obviously reflect badly on the democratic candidate who will almost definitely be Hillary Clinton unless something intervenes in between now and then and -- it's -- her on the end of trauma.

So Joseph Biden were offset.

-- I'm gonna guess Joseph Biden has made it some noises about running that I don't -- -- certainly.

Can't meet Hillary if Hillary decided not to run and then Andrew Cuomo -- they can they can duke it out.

But I think that I -- He yes of course how how the next couple years play out.

Matters but but I think that.

What if I was a Republican -- be most concerned about is is trying to get together some sort of infrastructure to be able to get the vote out to be able to know where your voters are to do -- -- -- things that.

-- Obama has done so well and he's gonna hand -- off to Hillary.

So Hillary's gonna come and not only having had the experience of running before.

Have been secretary of state.

And having this superior get out of that operation and talk you know micro targeting.

Up against the -- that probably has never run really run nationally on the out -- From Connecticut says Hillary will be a problem for the GOP and -- sixteen no matter how good the candidates are every woman I know regardless of political party loves Hillary.

UK terror from Connecticut.

We'll use to cases lastly I -- just -- that you know running nationally running a presidential campaign.

Previously.

Little overrated I think in recent history mean.

Well I mean Barack Obama had Enron and he he -- he did pretty well Mitt Romney of course had run before and didn't.

When the presidency and I think there's something to be gained from having gone through and then on the national stage that but I don't think that sort of handle beyond shocked to hear that you used to.

Not giving respect and credit to Joseph Biden he's hurt me I just don't understand why he was he's a city vice president of the United States continue to say the president -- hand.

This this wealth of data to Hillary Clinton.

Can you tell us and helping -- but Hillary is going to have to speak about ten guys who sometime.

-- says remember Ben Johnson.

Okay.

Let's a lot of people are asking about fiscal cliff and what's gonna happen.

-- give -- we didn't talk about is this whole back and forth about deductions and charitable deductions and and the specifics.

About what the president has said about what Republicans.

Want to do about capping deductions in and taking away loopholes.

Here's what he said in the Bloomberg interview yesterday.

-- there's been a lot of talk but somehow we can raise.

800 billion or trillion dollars worth of revenue just by closing loopholes and deductions.

But a lot of your viewers understand.

That.

The only way to do that would be if you completely eliminated for example charitable deductions.

Well that is if you didn't eliminate trouble -- -- that means every hospital.

And universally hated dad non for profit agencies across the country would suddenly find themselves.

On the verge of collapse so that's not a realistic option.

OK so.

So far no Republican Charles is saying eliminate all charitable deductions there are proposals to cap.

Deductions where you choose what your deductions would be.

But we -- showed you in the show the 2011 statement by Obama.

Where he said you could reach one point two trillion by closing loopholes and deductions.

We didn't show you is the 2009.

News conference where he talked about specifically charitable deductions when talking about obamacare.

-- -- -- Are you confident securities are wrong when they contend that this would discourage giving yes I am I mean if you look at the evidence.

There's very little evidence that this says a significant impact on charitable -- I mean.

Yeah I know it goes both ways I know Republicans have soundbites like this I know you have but you can play it both ways that.

But what I tell you can it's just.

It's just button right -- He rarely is it there's stark.

I mean this is you know you see -- right situation where faces his situation with mathematics this situation no reality.

I mean simply and I love the way he no matter what -- he takes -- opposing sides.

He has his quiet confidence you know this area of absolute assurance.

Look at me that you pull this out this idea that you have to abolish the charitable.

Even though is Jim Angle indicated there's nobody -- the Republican side.

Who proposes anything like this and also because and I looked at -- up right now and only have a crystal report.

Future but actually will look into the past as well.

Joint committee on taxation looked at the top ten deductions.

And how much they rob the government of revenue.

Of the top ten charitable -- next to last this number nine.

Give you an idea.

The deduction for the employer health insurance it's 650.

Billion -- year.

The deduction for mortgages is 480.

Chad it was a 187 so it's way down on the list.

The only reason he chose -- it's because it's been around you want.

If you push invite me you know these people as we saw on the main show priests who are pleading that is going to destroy all the Catholic Charities.

And in this sense it is an -- -- them of course the way to create a reaction to make the Republicans really bad guys.

But there -- no reason whatsoever that you have to even touch the charitable -- return to what I said last night.

There's one point one trillion every year.

Of tax expenditures and all the loopholes and deductions and Obama's pretending that went -- to charitable.

You can't get one trillion.

Over ten years and that of course is simply ridiculous.

What's amazing to me is he knows this but he delivers the opposite statement.

Was assured there's confidence.

And an incredible amount of I -- -- -- It's it's quite remarkable -- most admired it for that.

Almost.

Hussein a rare show of emotion for me it's it's.

It's just you know no one else.

I don't think.

Does those kinds.

I don't see it.

This house I don't see you don't have as -- nobody does it is well every time.

You really think that's a good argument he believes it and he seems extremely confident are many other channel pointing out I don't know I don't see it and it place.

Well I think that I I think I don't know but I -- -- he's talking about it was that tax policies on our.

Analysis that was done -- in the campaign that and -- and that's what he's getting up front which is that Romney's.

Plan would only work if you got rid of charitable deductions that that sickened since -- -- -- he could've gotten it but it's so contradicts what he said.

Earlier that.

It's possible you forgot and then I'll I'll be charitable and say hey maybe if Tehran this and I nice.

So yeah.

Look I I think I agree with.

I root current President Obama if you did.

You know I don't agree that he that it -- counts Republicans that they're not making arguments there I'm making but I do think it would have a pretty dramatic effect.

On charities and I think that was the argument we heard from -- back when the president.

First floated as I remember actually talking to people who were running nonprofits educational non profits announcements -- this would really.

Hurt us if you took took away the deduction altogether.

It hit it something that has to be on the table but in my view only if you are talking about wiping away all deductions when you're talking about.

Dramatic tax reforms sweeping tax reform eliminating the mortgage deduction all of that if all that goes.

You could make a case charitable deduction -- go to good people have so much more disposable income well listen they would be persuaded to give to charities from Garland.

Us what Simpson Bowles did was they took it all off they said if you put one back.

You have to figure out how to.

How to pay for had to have them make up for right so you pulled one back -- put charitable charitable and you put mortgage back and you figure out how to.

Make make amends for how to pay for.

And you know there are other ways doing art Laffer and bill in Colorado -- art Laffer has the perfect flat tax idea.

And it includes.

You know some deductions as well.

But all of that requires getting to the place we -- actually talking to him and without -- ideas.

And where Obama has to accept the principle of the zone commission which is the best way to keep the economy moving.

To encourage enterprise -- limitation -- risk.

To be fair because the rich are the ones who get the deductions and -- obvious it's to broaden the base of lower the rates.

In the Simpson blows recommendation and one of listeners will you take out all deductions a 100%.

You're below the race to the operators 23%.

So as you say if you want to add back charitable when you go to 26%.

If you want to add back the mortgage for your first film you go to 29% or whatever.

You can always get under the current rate and you can add back and that's the logical easy way to do it.

And of course he doesn't want to do it because he's net interest it.

In solving the problem he wants a -- that's what all of this is about that he may get interest should mean next year or the year after I don't know one that I can predict.

That's where the crystal ball goes cloudy army.

Right here and he's shown no evidence in the past is any interest.

In fiscal health of the country probably thinks after him that the delusion it'll be a Republican.

-- -- and care.

What you mean there's no evidence that right now he cares whatsoever.

About -- you fiscal reform.

-- I find some curious argument.

What what is what is any persons -- along -- Obama's motivation for trying to destroy the economy it just doesn't make any sense to me I mean you can maybe say it's incompetence that really like he doesn't care.

Human and answers that we cannot I am curious like when it's -- logical announced this year have a look at the moment doesn't -- The economy -- -- -- -- Evan it will leave -- always be known for destroying the economy.

He's -- that happens.

Is goalies I've argued -- The months after you an artery and he gave that speech we unveiled the subject.

Demands -- European social Democrat he's not communism and socialist but he believes that Europe has a more just humane society.

And he wants European levels of entitlement which is the entitlement society which they had.

And he's quite willing to you to raise as -- European levels of taxation.

And he thinks that the economy will hold or hold -- well enough so that later after he's gone.

His legacy is to make cuts and entitlement state where everybody.

Taking care of and the -- taking care of and there's no risk and all that.

That's what he believes he believes our economy strong enough will carry us through.

If there are adjustments his successor will make it or he'll make it late in the second term.

With stuff that the agencies don't have to destroy the economy.

He thinks we have a golden goose we have and -- -- engine that will spin off of his wealth.

And you want to make sure the -- as we distributed.

That's who we used.

-- well Larry Summers -- -- Timothy Geithner any brighter for an odd group of people if he's looking for European socialism seems like those Summers left fairly.

And I don't -- that Geithner has just has to believe the long term goal.

Geithner warns civilians -- -- -- and they hit some a lot of economic advisors have seen very little about what they don't have that same name but he's president.

You're asking me for what is deep in his -- I give your psychiatric and now.

Our -- I would tell you we haven't heard a lot of did you charge you for that Gene Sperling have never heard a lot from Gene Sperling on tax rates.

That's like Houston some interviews.

If -- -- -- -- -- and and and analyzing any of them in private.

-- in private and you wouldn't reported.

Do you think you have to have a higher rate you could you do this with -- I loved it.

And they would all tell you of course she employs about Clinton son -- taken hostage.

Yes his.

-- -- so I think I dinosaurs yet.

So I think that that's -- other I would say yes just I mean there there are other tells here I mean this this is what is the irony if you take a step back and everybody's focused on that that nitty gritty and we should be and it's important.

The details really matter but if you take a step back and -- -- with some perspective.

There's what started after the 2010 elections the rise of the Tea Party.

Was an effort by those who elected primarily -- the house to curb the size and scope of government that's what they were sent to Washington.

To rein in government.

And when I think we are now getting two is a point where.

And of all that energy it because these decisions were deferred and deferred deferred after the deaths than it is now going to be turned.

To expanding the size and scope of government that's in effect what we're talking about -- -- you have.

The mainstream media talking about deficit reduction plan that doesn't actually really reduce the deficit in part because of the way the budgeting works in part because.

We are not doing anything.

To structurally reform entitlements it's not being discussed and even the Republicans at this point are focused on.

Shorter term -- rather than longer term reforms now.

They're not focused on the longer term reforms because they think it's impractical at this point -- that they're probably right about that.

But nobody here in Washington is talking about he's bigger picture.

Longer term structural reforms in the context of the debate that we're currently happen.

Which is really the thing that eventually.

We heard on the campaign and before the campaign and the only had like probably three maybe four years.

Before.

You're running and something yes and then you're gonna come to a point where.

America can't continue.

Doing what we're doing on these entitlements that's the real -- That's the relentless little exact address -- -- I have now is a constructive there's no reason that we can't.

Get around it other than scalps are being required particularly scouts -- this in an afternoon.

Or weakest presence.

Just in Delaware says the Republicans need to stand fast and not give -- What are -- odds that Republicans -- further than that.

-- -- I was -- you're looking elsewhere I was very excited you'll have favorite team Steve.

And I have no idea.

I think he would be a catastrophe.

If they case Larry George surgeries he says go over the political what -- can I can access for four point of clarification.

What this cave mean in this context yeah I mean go -- and they -- -- you've been operating without anything in return OK and so and so they give us any -- on rates mean.

Either way.

We in my view Republican -- -- and whether they -- whether they cave or not.

They are going to be held responsible.

Largely.

For the fact that tax rates are going up either on the small groups or on the -- -- that I don't want anybody to misunderstand me is making an argument for raising taxes and as close to the -- Grover Norquist absolutist position on that as you can be.

But I don't see that there's there's there's not necessarily -- one.

One choice that's a cave and another choice that's for the obvious good jokes insurance.

Do the reason that the cave.

Is worse is that will cause a civil -- Republican House and Obama will have a free hand for the rest -- and that is an occasion to do.

Let the tax rates go up and just get a number.

That's agreed on.

But without any specifics the number of every number it yet cut like eight degree we're gonna cut this much -- without any specifics it's still sort of kicking it you know.

The negotiation but it -- -- -- rate hike.

We're going to revenue -- you get a rate hike and it.

That's -- I really think that's gonna happen went one way or another and then the Republicans have to decide are you going to hold out to actually discuss how you're gonna do it cuts and use them.

Get a number like we he agrees that cutbacks dollars Lou we'll figure it out.

We'll figure it out on the other side.

I mean there are a lot of really bad options for Republicans but among the worst options would be to agree any kind of a tax hike either whether it rates -- just additional revenues.

Without any kind of -- with just promises of spending on the road we've done that before that does not work it never works it won't work this time.

I just don't understand where.

I don't I don't think Republicans have the leverage that you think that you I think that there's a good case -- -- that if the president takes us over the cliff and it would be the president taking us over the cliff.

He wouldn't be blamed for them and look at the way that everything's being reported now.

And he could come back as the sort of here I now want to cut taxes I am the tax cutter here I'm going to cut taxes for 98% and the American public.

And furthermore I'm gonna restore these defense cut precisely what Leon Panetta or Chuck Hagel or whomever is the -- Defense Secretary.

Tell me to -- -- in horse -- to keep the country safe.

And security still has to have the house initiate that and two.

To formally initiate that you're -- business afloat it's a absolutely just a matter that has to start absolutely right -- the house chart all the porn then present stay on the first matter come out and say.

You know we're gonna reinstate all the tax cuts right and and unity -- that is yes.

I think -- Vito that the president would then say -- With the -- the media in the Washington based media no longer playing the role of refereeing but being in -- the cheering section -- I would say.

Go President Obama why don't don't give to these Republicans who I mean there's such a caricature of what's going on around the media narrative no harm -- -- -- Well right no longer in theory and I'm from that kind -- they will be there will be -- celebrating it will be cheering in the press box in effect so here's what I heard.

A suggestion today that Republicans pass the bill from the sent.

That raises the middle class tax.

Cuts and I'm -- that the passes the tax cuts excludes the top.

Out of the house they passed that in the past a separate.

Bill for the top -- -- And they separate the two but they pass the -- They send them over the senate the senate.

Approves the lower one.

They shoot down the top one.

Then Republicans can say they voted.

To approve both sets of tax cuts but they.

Democrats shot down the top tier than Republicans could technically say.

That they voted.

For.

Tax cuts across the board.

Right and and -- and I think that would give them some political cover when I was just didn't.

And it's just crazy and too cute by this whole thing is some entertaining the idea that we're spending so much time.

Fix it because the president is leaving us there on taxes.

When you've got all of this other stuff I mean you know this is that -- cliff you've got this you've got you know.

A debt crisis facing us within 234.

Years and we're focused on on this you know moving -- points that's not to say that the tax rates are important that additional revenues.

How you get those additional revenues if that's what you want to do as the president does is an important.

It's just we're we're focusing what's the what's the old phrase that the pimple on the elephant's rear -- Very Alan Simpson of something like that something that sounds whatever it is we're focused on this is and that's Belcher a tornado.

I simply elegant you write something better than.

Mark Levin and I can come -- you know by the same token and don't yell at me again like you did before.

-- -- and you don't misrepresent.

That's shorts and his wife says.

That -- I'm I'm not from the -- -- by the same token.

Raising tax rates a couple of percentage points is not gonna and the world is not minister of the economy I mean it's.

You know and there are Republicans who have come out and said that so -- in both sides are sort of playing this game in the Republicans could give them not that they wanted to and Obama didn't give not give enough to two times you know and they could say this time we're gonna give -- -- that.

And month let's stop talking about a tax rates must start talking about entitlement reform and you know.

Really dealing with the really serious issue.

If there -- -- something serious and I could see.

Probably the best tactical way would be to buy.

C -- 2% hike.

The 37%.

Was I don't at all I mean what you've got to get I mean Obama has to say raise the rate the age for Medicare.

Raise the retirement age and -- excellent.

It's got to be something absolutely serious and not to say in the back room and ends up.

In the Woodward book.

To say to the American people to make a speech and say we had a -- series and Sarah and make cuts in discretionary spending to be serious.

And given number and say how they gonna do it if they don't if he doesn't do that Republicans should walk over the cliff and and work -- out.

And an on day one -- -- house -- before the present sworn in second.

You pass -- across the board.

Restoration of the bush tax rates.

That's the best -- In effect dared him to veto that -- to do and which should do and -- you know launched this public campaign.

Saying that Republicans are being -- who don't know how to become president gonna wobble he's not going to be is confident BP is now.

The market here's a remarkable thing is that.

If you talk to.

People who are watching the spending.

I mean not just Republicans are talking about it and in talking points but -- economists who are just keeping track.

On the spending of this government.

It is astonishing how much money is going out the door and how much were borrowing from China to pay for that.

And if you just do -- look at the numbers just the sheer numbers.

It just doesn't add up and -- just at some point it just does not add up.

And people I don't think fully fit in and in the big picture.

At some point they will but now they don't.

And that's the question look at what point will they get.

Close to average of federal government spending is about 20% of GDP.

Obama raised 225 percentage roughly that slightly less.

Which we haven't had since the Second World War and that was a big emergency.

He could say you know nine and ten were in a big emergency although that was an exaggeration.

You can't save in 2013.

That's a joke but he has no inclination whatsoever to reduce the level.

-- spending because that's not who he is and he thinks they of those private economy.

Somehow one day if -- Texan aren't enough we'll take him and he wants to -- you believe that do you believe.

That this administration.

Thinks that if you tax -- high enough that that's the solution now.

And it's certainly not his economic advisors just -- -- Jason Furman -- Fabrice not coming -- that's -- if there are.

Progressives or whatever you want to call them you know who -- seem to believe that that we can just have to tax and tax and number.

Touch entitlements and there's nothing wrong social security and that you know everything is just -- responded -- -- this week.

You know raise taxes on the rich but there are real minority -- -- I don't think that that's.

Standard and I have to say I think most administrations.

I mean George Bush talked in every state of the union about cutting spending cutting the deficit and still -- grew every year and I mean this is just endemic in Washington.

And that nobody wants to really ever take the hit take the political hit because.

People like getting the things that they're getting used to it -- now and someone's gonna have to finally say we can't we can do the same.

They -- among the minority of those.

When things I don't hear that I I truly don't now I know a lot of us think that they know that I don't know -- asked enough people who.

Are involved in these things and it's not clear to them so you what it is again I didn't doubt it can make you question.

-- I wish you crystal we'll have.

-- from how does this come -- On this question of the assets seven times before we get to the end of the month.

How do we get to the end of this month how does this resolve.

I think the most likely scenario.

As we see here now remains.

Some sort of horrible we usually deal.

That is reached at the last man after -- statement here has -- MB yeah I mean everybody's already openly talking about this as a two year process -- down payment for more serious.

Reforms to -- that includes a rate increase.

That would probably include some sort of a minor rate increase -- I think that's been the most likely so possible scenario probably is right here additionally the what -- -- direct.

I think that's more likely than the alternative although if if the president continues I think to show -- zero willingness to come toward the Republican.

You're gonna have a House Republican Caucus that.

Basically says.

You know politics began and we are not the only.

It'll happen -- last minute.

You can predict that.

And that I think it will be some sort of you know Obama will come down on the rates may be says 37%.

Or something.

And it and they'll be some sort of agreement about.

Changing the age limit for Medicare are in us the -- some sort of down payment in the sense of you know they'll they'll pick a number of how much help cut from Medicare.

And Medicaid and then.

I think I would be concerned if I was Republicans that come January that he would follow through on -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- It's the country in January a war going over if you -- most likely -- percentage.

Sixty -- That's would you put our reminds you that's as you put Israel attacks Iran.

-- -- -- -- You -- at one point you did but then you backed out.

I thought this the regime in Syria -- well you you forgot to mention -- And I -- Yeah.

-- let us drill.

It's and I admire you funeral you feel like yeah.

-- -- no I don't not back.

-- Republicans came -- I just think.

If they think it through that if they came -- nothing in return they have destroyed themselves for the four years they won't do it that they could -- I've seen him.

-- -- -- -- -- -- 2010 they won the as the mid -- election and they gave way -- -- afterwards so I don't have any companies in negotiating ability but.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Obama will be -- to an extent he doesn't see I think.

I think I'm right about a Syrian man in his uniform and in the end Israel will probably have to attack around so just a little premature and -- wrong.

So on the timing my -- just -- timing right mindset to profit that I see so far.

Have to call you said have tried to give it one of the Zach writes that he was such a profits -- so deeply.

That not one of his prophecies had ever come true.

I don't make predictions but except for the online show up and down.

For the longest time I thought that there's going to be this piece -- deal.

I think that Republicans -- not gonna do I think you're gonna go over.

I really do.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Your thoughts in my car I think I think is that 78 what's gonna happen I could be wrong but I think that that's -- political and on the way there we'll see who we -- You land on our convictions I you -- -- did you let with the percentages over the think she did you sit -- and make a deal right and they're gonna get him out of percentages it was presents.

As very low time for something.

I think he's very -- fifty.

We'll take it -- so -- show ended he wants.

I can't tell what I think you asked the question.

Ignorant 495149.

Peterson's usually -- -- -- more certainty yeah me out a few goofy and country.

On purpose but it can -- -- got really really cold blooded way to Charleston the president that I would outgoing red eye currently yeah I was sad that in case I will pull this December 28 how well this statement so are we really deal.

Thanks for joining us tonight on the online shows firing at times over the back here tomorrow of course 6 -- -- special report.

And we'll see you back next week have a good night control -- -- -- --

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