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UC San Diego Political Science Professor Zoltan Hajnal tells Alan about his study showing that all racial groups gained economically under Democratic ...
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Also like to welcome to our microphones doctor -- finals.
He is director of graduate studies department of political science at University of California San Diego.
And author of why Americans don't join the party race immigration and the failure of political parties to engage the electorate.
And what about the few books are written thank you doctor -- with Villanova program tonight.
Yes -- -- studies out a study out right now about ethnicity.
And politics.
And the fact that we are becoming less and less of a white majority country.
And a certain political party not paying attention -- -- have some dire ramifications and.
Thank you very much -- -- on yeah it could.
You know we we simply looked to see whether there were differences in outcomes under.
Democratic president cursed under Republican president of the last fifty years and I think probably not surprisingly we found striking striking differences in -- so.
Minorities.
Scared.
Very well and a Democrat bit.
And up there.
Poverty rate went down -- unemployment rate went.
With a seventh all -- not just a blacks and Hispanics but I figured out what people to run.
Absolutely go to everybody everybody gained under Democrats or at least all racial and ethnic groups -- and a Democrat and they tended to lose under Republican.
However minorities that I gained more than that -- -- everybody's a winner.
But if you care about that are equality and -- there were particular.
Particularly winners from -- -- -- for example twenty across 26 years of democratic leadership unemployment among blacks declined by seven point 9%.
Trying to -- -- eight years Republican presidencies.
The rate increase by a net of 38 at thirteen point 7%.
The black poverty rate fell 23 point 6%.
-- democratic presidents and rose by 3% and a Republican though one could say are there other factors when I'm looking at beside the political parties involved the could because -- There's there's certainly the fact is going on although we knew we are pretty confident dead.
The presidency they have put a big role on this -- a couple of reasons why we think that.
Number one is the consistency of these effects though it -- and almost every year -- democratic presidency over the last fifty years.
There were gains for minorities and end.
In most cases they're reluctant under Republicans -- is -- consistency.
We -- -- sort of look to see whether this is simply due to.
Democrat inheriting good economies from Republican.
And what we found -- actually sort of the reverse of that so.
Democratic.
-- big gains for minorities and for others under Democrat increase.
The longer Democrats for him powers of the more -- they had to govern.
The better outcomes war and then third and finally that are from a more technical standpoint we tried to control for.
Others think that we're going on in the economy that -- growth grade inflation rate those sorts of things.
And even after trying to control these other factors.
Democratic president.
War -- much more productive for minorities on its core measures of well being.
Which I would doctors sultan -- -- UC San Diego.
You also say that.
Policies that encourage overall economic and job growth.
Are more likely under democratic president's thinking they can't emphasize the more and yet the conventional wisdom is the opposite -- -- Yeah well -- meet the immediate descent is that that Republicans are.
Trying to reduce -- their concern about inflation.
And a haven't that a policy that may benefit the economy -- My work but even more so -- come to -- rather.
Sensor former Princeton layer by itself.
-- -- I think pretty conclusively that growth that economic growth has been at least over the -- half century greater under Democrats and has been under Republican.
If this is the case why isn't this -- of the rooftops by Democrats and why why are they making more -- of this and using it to their own betterment as a political party.
I I think largely because.
The numbers are you know if you start.
-- statistics that American thoughtfully by and large so you can you can throw -- numbers but sometimes that's not particularly effective end.
And -- even if you throughout the numbers.
Republican global point 21 particular year or you know say that it what -- it was something else so.
What about what is so many people believe Republicans are better for the economy better for majority people better economically.
I I think -- -- they see the -- and you know a lot of people aren't.
Very well informed and you know their business and not necessarily a lot of reason to be informed.
So to the depth that -- that we're talking about here.
You know you're you're pretty personal -- not gonna make a difference in terms of who wins and who it is and and don't watch technical a lot of time to figuring out which is the best -- One of the other pieces of information I found fascinating about this is is that you say most Asian Americans Latino adults.
Or not tied to either political party.
And you think they would be tied to Democrats if indeed this data.
Is so real that they'd recognize and be tied to that part.
And what -- there's very distinct pattern to who isn't who is not tied to the party -- If you look at -- American -- -- a population as a whole.
A lot of them are uncertain about which party they fit into -- -- certain about American politics.
But as today spend more time the United States that they get to know more about the party.
They tend to choose that the democratic side today's youth groups there's the I'm not certain where I fit and I I don't know enough about that the option.
And then there's there's there's the group that.
It more acquainted with American politics and they tend to overwhelmingly sort.
Support the Democratic Party.
In anyway the the voting patterns fit reality they'll minority have been overwhelmingly when they vote.
Supporting Democrats in the Democrats have been.
Able to provide growth for them and for many -- as well.
What they have found fascinating is where the fact that although Obama won 95% of the black vote and some people's bodies -- from -- black.
As you point out democratic candidates have garnered 91% of the black vote.
66% Latino vote 59% of the Asian American vote so that's statistically almost even -- what Obama got so it's not because he's black.
-- -- -- Readily apparent to me and I think -- the most people look look hard at the numbers.
That African Americans -- the group least likely to vote based on the rate for the candidates so they won't typically vote for black Republicans.
They'll vote for Democrats whether there black Democrats or white Democrats.
With the -- like you know Alan Keyes and Herman Cain and people who have a black conservatives have not traditionally done well.
Right on the -- yesterday.
-- stated that it clearly -- the black vote clearly about.
Policy.
What benefit median and perhaps what benefits my group as well but it did not about the -- the candidate.
How -- democrats' best use your data to their advantage.
You I think just providing the numbers I think it is it's valuable.
I think in the end though -- did they'll also have to talk about policy and directly connect.
The policy the Dave.
Put forward to the well being.
Different groups over time it's not -- we do in in in our study -- it and it it's harder.
To do that in in the in -- that there's lots of different policies that are contributing to what's going on.
Are there are particular policies you can point to and say here's why these numbers are the where they are.
Knowing instead I I can't I you know I can point to a lot of different possibilities though that you know there are a number of talking -- Democrats have put forward that I think you have expanded.
Growth this one area where it's pretty clear that in particular for minority -- Democrats have done better then.
Republican in my opinion is in criminal justice policy so that they get tough on crime put a lot of people in jail has hurt minorities assert their incomes.
In employment rate after they get a prison and those sorts of things.
So that's one area that seems pretty clear but.
You could point to.
Either -- -- you do all these attacks policies but.
I don't have.
In that case definitive evidence that the policy can account for that much of the big big gains -- -- -- Professor thank you for your time fascinating to talk about the stuff I certainly appreciate you talking or audience tonight about thank thank -- access to a doctor.
Result in high now he's director of graduate studies department of political science.
UC San Diego.
