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Power Play 12-6-2012

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    Obama's debt ceiling demand, Hillary the inevitable and Boehner tries to toe the line

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We have we have -- depth problem that is out of control.

We've got to just I mean I am -- five -- as appropriate but revenues on the table.

Now the revenues were front and on the table -- gonna come from gas soon.

The rich.

There are ways to limit deductions.

Close loopholes and have the same people paid more.

More of their money to the federal government without raising tax rates which we believe will harm our economy.

And bat Internet and you know perfectly well by now is John Boehner the speaker of the United States House of Representatives he's a Republican from the state of Ohio.

And this is power play.

Good morning Internet.

Well I guess I should say -- good morning most of the Internet -- from frequently reminded that.

Some -- are European.

And so.

You know we say good evening I guess twins -- -- -- no chance to to you that's.

By linguists.

Right there I was Susan appreciate -- It is the chief congressional correspondent for the Washington examiner she -- -- your friend of mine -- a friend of this Internet telecast.

Welcome -- -- great -- OK so.

Here's the deal you heard John Boehner they -- talking a bona.

I feel about this -- -- I'm -- start -- for those of you who cannot see that sign back there.

But the the question ms.

Susan is this.

That.

John Boehner is trying to walk in -- narrow tightrope right now with the president on one side.

And conservative members of his caucus on the other side.

And there are signs that -- Position is is secured that he is not in danger of -- revolt right now here in -- seems to be giving him the majority leader seems to be giving him some latitude these days.

And some other things but there are complaints from his base.

Not just about.

-- -- tax deal because in that quote you heard him is -- telling you in the rest of -- of the gang.

And can't help that yeah people are gonna pay more taxes under his plan and he's OK with that.

That he's got to deal with a complaint from his.

Caucus about that but also about the fact that he has punished if you punished for five members.

Of his caucus by stripping them -- -- Making posts and because they didn't vote with him before.

Well I think setting things up right now to make for an easier passage of whatever deal he comes up with -- -- I think it will include people on the hill you know Republicans and Democrats alike acknowledges that included tax rate increase of some kind not just closing loopholes -- actually raising rates rates may not be the 215 about it may -- a higher number than that millionaires you know.

500000 but it's it's this -- a rate increase.

But I by telling these -- members in Gloucester committee sent assignments for voting against -- being a thorn in my side it's any message and he also said in that meeting.

There could be more he said that to the crew yesterday that he met with -- at least rank and file that you know hot or not.

Members who write our republic is actually show up -- those things.

He said there could be more so that means basically.

There's a big vote coming coming I'll think about how you're going to stand on it because if you vote against me on this you -- lose -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- who lost their committee assignments.

-- -- who voted against the last really big important piece of legislation which was the debt ceiling bill from August 20.

I think that made the spending side of the fiscal club.

Created a fiscal cliff and and they voted against it sounds a big no no -- -- -- Khamese and is now.

So dizzy and internal struggle going on -- -- -- right now you still a lot of members who are not really inclined to raise rates.

At all or even closes loopholes still don't like it all -- wanna raise taxes.

But they've got two problems line is that this is the clip is coming they could be blamed too is it could vote against something like that and lose their committee signing.

Says two big things that might influence these guys he's you know rabble browsers on the far right.

Google on with whatever deal -- comes up with -- eventually of course that's the question what is that deal going to been.

Is it going to be a big tax rate increase -- he agrees to Boise just to hold it is ground because Democrats are willing to put forward their side of the deal.

Which of course going to be have to be some kind of being cut.

Somewhere along line discretionary spending in an agreement to do it happening reforms and -- have to have that.

Susan did you know that.

I write the column every morning.

I read everything you know that I do.

It's also called power play and it's available in convenient word for word based form for -- Internet.

And you can have it.

Simply for the cost -- -- Twitter follow if you probably act.

-- -- -- -- -- -- On yourself there Internet you can have a what I -- today was this and you're very good at knocking down my -- -- I -- he did for years.

When I -- -- -- it when I was -- editor and she would say oh no no you don't know what you're talking -- here's my question.

If you're Republican and you know you know no no no that.

If you do nothing everybody's rates go up.

Well that of 53%.

Of American households that pay income taxes the they're all their rates are gonna go up.

On January 1 and beyond January 1 you're negotiating from a place where the taxes are already -- the law of the land.

Is that.

What is wrong with the idea.

From a strategic point of view.

I understand -- thing about primary challenges but -- -- street strategic point of view of passing at the end on December 31 you negotiate as long as you can't get as good a deal is you can't.

And then on December 31 letting go through an extension of the rates.

For everybody but the 2% targeted by the president.

And then move on to the next fight which is the debt -- why is that a bad idea and then use your dad telling us your second point of leverage and then you get to the debt ceiling and you say OK you -- a debt ceiling increase now you got to give me some cuts now you got to give you whatever and by the way the Republicans who like cutting spending -- not -- the Pentagon.

Would be seeing the automatic cuts from the sequestration go into effect at least they'd be -- that.

In the issue that is once you let those tax rates rise for those top income earners it's really hard to undo -- right.

It's really hard to get that back on the table I think a lot of Republicans fear.

This is -- one shot at keeping those rates at their -- at the -- keeping those rates sustained for everybody.

But I'll tell you that is the plan that's being talked about him right now people are saying.

They're acknowledging we've got two points of leverage here the first one being of course the fiscal -- that we talk about happening on January 1.

But the second is a debt ceiling increase and here's a problem with that theory.

Yet to listen you know in between the lines on what's really going to be important what each side is -- insist on for Republicans is gonna have to be big cut cuts.

-- the Democrats whether they've been saying.

We're not moving a bill that she got connected to increase and so whenever -- -- They are you serious that on -- -- the senate has in the senate passed the bill.

That would just extend before word 98% of federal income taxpayers wouldn't it just extend the rates for them.

The debt but.

Yes but but if if we going to if this still if we if we possibility -- stopped fiscal cliff which many people believe will happen.

It's probably going to get rid of that second point of leverage that you mentioned your story -- that would give them another out -- at the apple.

-- include that in every night I hey there's some lines in the sand that are not negotiable right now rock.

Obama would not Vito.

Or maybe he would maybe he would but that would be I mean there is audacious and then there's -- day she wouldn't be doing veto -- bill you're saying he would cities.

Did you know -- positively impact but the -- already -- that -- their existing legislation.

Fitting -- it doesn't matter what ever heard that fiscal cliff.

It legislation that -- the last train out the door as we say right it's going to -- -- it's going to have a debt ceiling increase that carries it.

That stops the second point of -- that's and in times and that's why you see Obama's saying right now.

We're not moving to bill -- as a debt -- increase -- -- -- -- hang it over and over.

They wanna get rid of that second -- and how good they really know that I know.

They know even those tax rates which I still argue would be hard to -- Even even if you don't get the tax rates -- the Republicans even if they don't have tax rates that.

At least they would be able to get spending cuts won't bring entitlements that.

Right they're pretty -- spending cuts.

This time around.

Here's like I say there are some bright lines and I don't -- negotiable right now tax rates are negotiable folks sorry.

And so and so -- but here's what's not negotiable I don't see.

Republicans doing much in the way of taxes if they don't see something big on the table right now that substantial for cuts in entitlement reform.

That that brings the promise.

That there will be -- this happening next year where they're going to be working on reform any traumas and attacks.

They're not gonna do that unless they see the cuts on the table those sit there and I think that's only get a real problem for this fiscal cliff situation.

If Democrats are willing to put those big cuts on the table but if they are.

Then I think you're gonna see the Republicans really I think -- backwards and they.

You've heard it here first Susan -- often quite right.

Says this.

If in fact.

The Republicans -- -- even pass legislation that included.

An extension of current tax rates for the 98% as the president likes to talk about the did not.

Unilaterally disarm on the question of the debt ceiling that this and it would kill it.

That's a -- That is bold talk that is bold talk madam but we will see what happens because the clock is ticking down that is not to Christmas but but to -- -- day.

Susan we thank you luxury to be here all right good Internet.

Collect yourself take a moment.

Gather your thoughts because when we come back we're going to be with some of your very favorite we're gonna have Tony welcome Bradley and are going to be -- -- -- out all of this stuff.

On the debt ceiling we will test.

Susan supposition is we will have -- points we -- hilarious word from Charles.

This show is something that should delight in inspire you for the rest of your day.

-- -- Isn't bad strategy -- -- As bad strategy for businesses.

And it is not a game that I won't play.

And that was President Obama tell you about the game he would not play it is not for cheesy.

It is not my -- it is the debt ceiling game that he will not -- he's talking there to these CEOs -- the business roundtable the bigs of the bigs.

And saying that he was not interest it.

In negotiating something out with Republicans.

On an increase to the debt ceiling this is power play that we increase the debt ceiling for the federal government borrowing limit for the federal government by 2.2 trillion dollars.

Back in August it sounds like a lot.

But it turns out that if you were spending an extra.

Four billion today that you don't have you go through that pretty fast.

So we're gonna be out soon.

And the extraordinary measures that Treasury Secretary was able to use back in August to bump things out.

Are less available to him now because we have less liquidity.

And based on the time of the year went acts of rebates are being paid there's just less cash on hand.

So it's going to get squeezing pretty quickly into the beginning of the new year the president says he will not play that game.

So let's talk about this gamesmanship challenge.

Let's do that with Tony Welch he is a former.

Press Secretary for the Democratic National Committee.

You follow him -- you should follow and that -- sixer and Tony when people want to hire you where there are you.

-- at beat Dewey square group that the Dewey -- and they'll get a place there a lot of happy couple Democrats over the duties there are you -- -- ready to help their fellow Democrats get elected to stuff.

And do other things.

-- Blake meant of course as you know perfectly well Internet is a former senior advisor to president George W.

Bush.

He also worked for bush -- And we wish continue to wish a speedy recovery from his -- You follow him -- Blake and indeed he switched it up on you he put -- this person actually the end and if you're very lucky.

And either get a scholarship or average and if you could learn from it and -- thought.

I guess he's a professor at Georgetown University welcome back that brother -- -- Are -- here's the question.

Susan says this that the real -- No go point the real red line for the president in the current negotiations.

Is over this.

The debt ceiling not.

The not the tax rate increase for upper -- that this is mostly talk this is mostly showmanship.

The real thing the president wants now and will insist on now and Democrats insist on now is that whatever happens today.

His condition on an increase in the debt ceiling to more do you think that's true you're a Democrat what -- you.

What an increase in the debt -- or or -- or not having this fight again.

That is why you know congress -- giving -- the right to let the president borrow money well I'll say this.

You can avoid -- this -- the rise in the debt ceiling either he's buying time for the year.

Well he's saying we are gonna -- -- and we if you seen this happen before Houston we've been talking about leadership from the for the from the president for quite some time.

And the idea that America now is going to.

Regularly and regularly.

Get into the position -- it is going to put its economy at risk we're gonna do this on an annual basis depending on the does this is what's going on in the Republican caucus.

Is absurd and so I think he will find the president not only asked for let's say.

We are we are going to find a solution I'm not going to accept things on these terms where you get to hold -- gun to the American economy every.

So often every year to six months whatever it's going to people were doing we do a lot of gun holding -- to the American economy in Washington and we just do.

Well now wait -- -- And I'll let Brad carried the ball on this but.

As Rob Portman wrote in a letter last night.

To president that Mitt most or all of the Republican senators are signatories to the city the debt ceiling increase was part of all of the big.

Fiscal deals that have happened over the last.

Thirty odd years so why should we disarm on the debt ceiling when we know that this has been a leverage point -- people abuse in the past.

Democrats and Republicans.

This is a hostage negotiation everywhere and we're in the in the position.

Not only have you got her head but also then be forced to negotiate against ourselves if the present were real.

He wouldn't be talking in Arlington Virginia into the distract -- will he be talking to.

Leadership on Capitol Hill he refuses to do that he can't negotiate -- -- somebody sitting on the other end of the table the president's latest.

Demand is that debt ceiling and then what does he do he -- this particular cabinet secretary of the Treasury Secretary up.

To the speaker of the house to demand that they relinquish their constitutional.

Power of the purse and oversight to the president and executive branch and raising the debt as they see fit.

This is not serious negotiation because of that was the -- it would be engaged every day.

On this issue with the leaders who can make the deal the present interest in a deal I believe he thinks she's in a better position if we go off the -- And then will live to fight another day with a new car.

Tell -- whether the president thinks that whether he wants to fail or not it's hard to argue with the logic that Democrats are -- Advantaged position.

In January.

If at least as it relates to taxes that if you if in fact all the rates go up because they're starting from age they're starting from their side of the from the from their opponents out of the fifty yard line.

Instead of their -- -- Sure all together just it's it's a stronger position if I don't think it's accepting with a couple things the -- of the president's campaigning.

First you talk -- Don -- on the phone.

Very recently they can they can they can move this along.

And you don't have to be there every day if there's if nothing's moving down to earth -- -- things on his side and there's leadership required on his end as well.

But to the other point to present today we'll sit down with the middle class families and it scares Republicans so much.

That the president is talking to business leaders and regular Americans about what we should do at this point -- -- I'm really sorry for them but here's what he has to.

Here's here's a point he should make.

He should make the point that.

I am not going to.

Year after year after year allow you to to hold our economy hostage that he can't play on those terms and he's not going to I don't think.

Wouldn't this -- in the industry standard just to give you some perspective on this and who's the industry standard in the past was that there would be budgets of some kind -- you have budgets.

And when the budget was passed when a spending bill was passed it was -- into it like oh and by the way the debt ceiling is gonna go up.

A trillion -- like suddenly go.

This the spending happened earlier this right ending that this is only saying we're going to pay for the groceries we bought our credit card.

Look at video but eventually president you've never been the type of Kentucky case that doesn't always happen that is not always -- that this has -- the president's credit card right the last eight years.

Do you last four years don't get and we got a long way to go now I don't get well.

Yeah but it.

It that we don't miss that the president said in 2008 as a candidate for president it's irresponsible in fact I -- -- using his words unpatriotic.

To run up the kind of gets.

That he -- quote inherited and that he's blown through that.

He's he spent more money than every president who preceded him.

But now all good things come to an end and we're not gonna negotiate against ourselves if the president wants to drive off the cliff that we're gonna watch him go we're not going with a.

But but they set up the -- -- -- -- this is the Republicans the -- set up this way but this is the Republicans doing big push the issue on this Bradley now that we've gone through this budget process in decades before without any drama of the this morning we're all going to yeah.

Yeah.

It well calibrated when we are down that's the cliff but the down but the downgrade to -- putting us and we had a.

-- I'm gonna stop myself but that the downgrade.

I think -- -- point -- can we agree that the downgrade as a consequence of the impasse being the straw that broke the camel's back.

On a forty year fiscal failure right that wasn't that didn't all happen in a week it wasn't like we think the United States is robust and fiscally sound though it took one incredibly reckless move to make that happen but it but it was we've we've been doing wrong for a while I think we can stipulate we've we've done and been doing wrong for a long time.

Okay we're gonna take a quick break I'm gonna stop myself now from talking anymore for a brief moment so that when we come back we talk about fun we -- ice this cupcake that we've been -- here and say.

Hillary -- sixty.

What do you think.

I know it's too soon and it's wrong and we shouldn't do it but much like entitlement failing to reform entitlements or failing to normalize the tax code it just feels good to do it so that's what we're gonna do when we come back.

So stick around.

Well faith and -- -- that is Hillary Rodham Clinton secretary of state on a visit to Ireland.

And you know who else likes to go to Ireland presidents of the United States because there -- to be a lot of -- voters in America and it looks cool and I'd like to get straight appearance stuff so that's great.

And this is powered by welcome back.

And Hillary Clinton for all the talk for any talk in fact about Hillary Clinton not being a candidate in 26 team.

The drumbeat has begun that seems to inexorably lead us to the moment.

When the secretary of state says as much as I didn't want to run for president I really wanted to just help -- world hunger or something.

I was say I feel duty -- To go and do my running.

So what about the fact that the Democrats already have a front runner for 2016 and it cleared -- on front runner at bat.

We'll ask that question of -- Blake man who knows what Republicans will have to do in order to get ready for that.

Or.

Tony -- would tell us whether it's really going to happen because -- well.

Has been within the house of Clinton you know how.

The Clinton.

Operation operates.

And all of that good stuff from your time at the DN CETC -- -- So let's start with the numbers.

Hillary twice sixteen -- the Washington Post and ABC.

57%.

Of respondents.

Of American respondents said yes.

They would support her compared to 37% who -- it closer and -- this is a meaningless poll.

This is -- overwhelmingly meaningless bowl because it's acts it's asked in the abstract right.

But 57%.

Is you've got -- like that if -- Mark Penn or whomever she's gonna hire this time you've got to like that right.

You're gonna hear that number and run away -- location.

And -- -- and say I say this is not doable what's interest things can people take four years -- from their last field campaign most of them run distinct tanker doing this job or do this work and she happened to be in the very.

As a whole world -- that could happen to be in the very visible on the secretary of state was an incredibly high approval rating in that job and we arrived here today one of the first emails I got after the election was over an email about retiring the debt from her.

So I know I know -- right now Brad the Republicans have seen this movie before that your.

Hillary Clinton was barreling into 2008.

That not only was she -- dead insert favorite to win the democratic nomination.

But also.

Was going to walk away she was riding high and not this -- but she is running very high going into 2008.

And was it certainly looked past the primaries.

Which turned out there.

Yeah.

Look pass the time.

Primaries and was ready to face off -- either Rudy Giuliani or John McCain how does having a presumptive front runner in the Democratic Party affect the process in the Republican -- Well look if it gives us the ability.

Two Foster are only eight to twelve candidates we're gonna run.

The fact is that Hillary -- -- you you've said we've seen this movie before she was going to Waltz into the White House usually get the nomination none of that happened.

And actually think she's going to learn from her mistakes and do it again.

-- to ignore.

Hillary Clinton and -- we're gonna have our own fish to fry with.

Ten or twelve candidates were gonna be making appearances shortly and in Iowa New Hampshire and Florida and Virginia.

Marco Rubio are on the trail so -- we basically ignore.

Defense.

We think about what they are trying to do different areas we pay the talent and potential and our last night what did you do this -- so you -- you're saying don't worry about it than do what they do you figure you pick your guy.

Other other potential Democrats a number like that not only would a number like this.

-- inducements to the house of Clinton but also it would tend to terrify I would think other Democrats who are thinking about -- that way right.

Well that's all.

-- theory and and to back regrets point.

It is is difficult -- wire to wire act that says it's a safe bet to take the field against anyone Mitt Romney.

Yeah.

It's really really hard today and so for the person running you've got.

-- about -- one path that's not the only path to defeating machine but.

I think it's polar this time she's good list that you released him from from candidate to First Lady to -- To successful secretary of state is a horror -- what I was will have a wholesale web play segments about how successful as secretary of state she was -- WWW.

It is safe.

I advised on it and that question -- gentlemen.

We thank you very much for your time today I think candidates are wishing people Merry Christmas and happy -- -- it today today begins we begin the holiday march forward -- center Christmas.

Happy Chanukah and here we go.

Okay.

Hear your power points for today it goes fast it goes fast so here's your first PowerPoint.

53% that's president Obama's approval rating in the quinnipiac poll quinnipiac -- you know as a -- that I like and trust and listen to a lot.

And that's up.

That takes him up five points from where he was prior to the election and nothing.

As Peter Brown -- get points out helps your approval rating.

Like winning an election that's a good thing makes people like you more and they -- well let's give this guy another chance.

But here's your second PowerPoint.

Holding the line.

Now in the old days when it came to post election approval balances you were talking about what people like Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan experience which takes you back up.

Into happy town up into the sixties.

Up into the high fifties -- -- these are great things and happy days might be here again.

What the president is experiences and what George W.

Bush experience.

Which is a -- One it's over the top and that's all and that's not a lot of political capital to spend.

And he's gonna spend as in fact George W.

Bush did with the Iraq War probably most of his term holding the line on his big.

His biggest issue which is is -- 2010 health law that's going to be what present will have to spend most of his capital doing is holding the line on that.

So here's your third point.

Fresh and exciting.

How do you be fresh and exciting.

As a re elected president.

You need a big idea you need something to galvanize people around if the president can outrun this moment with Republicans right now are taxes and spending.

He ought to think of something fresh and exciting to talk to voters about that might engage them -- So that was your power points on the hunt -- Jonathan Hunt is up next as you well know and now.

As we like to do every day.

Normally do with the word from our French are.

It's so I think you're looking once again in the media that's here blame Republicans but that's where I am correcting them.

You're correct we -- them we have I don't live show where we can talk more about this is a direct them even -- and you corrected me even more.

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