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But desperate search for shoppers is not in stores hoping to really in last minute buyers today because so iron -- -- Confidence had a five month low threat -- tax hikes from Washington hits hard.
So does all this mean the economy is already screwed just hi everyone I'm Brenda -- dates as Bulls and Bears let's get right.
You -- -- -- able to bear this week we've got Gary Smith Tobin Smith Jonas Max -- along with Larry Glazer and Susan -- welcome everybody pay Larry.
No deal on taxes and debts -- holiday sales and the economy.
That's right Brenda you know I don't want to get a grids here but in a word we are discouraged I mean.
She did with.
Very very optimistic expectations.
And outlook for re just that that was very rosy and those optimistic expectations -- faded as we've gotten closer look look at the end of the year with no this booklet deal invite.
And as a result consumers that it is falling off a -- just like a typical of a ball off so.
We got a problem on her hands Brenda and it couldn't happen at a worse time just ahead of today's super Saturday the second busiest shopping day of the year.
-- isn't a lot of retailers are saving their big discounts in until right before Christmas or even after so if consumers know that -- -- there waiting to.
That's exactly right.
And you know a lot of -- procrastinators.
Haven't finished our shopping at so there's still a ways to go and another important point to remember here is that.
You retell holiday season actually ends on January 31 not December 31 or on December point -- Ot -- just close their year and books and at the end of January and so there's still time we're gonna get a yeah on the that's the clip I'm short it.
And there's still time for retailers that you have great sales and for consumers throughout thereby stopping got a little boomlet in January I Gary beaten very optimistic but procrastinating.
Season maybe that's why you haven't received your gift yet but what -- you by about her it's you by.
-- -- -- -- This is it sounds like President Obama who said he was a hopeless -- the Mets so I think that I.
About -- -- -- and that's what -- sounds like unfortunately that numbers don't back up what she's saying look most economists think.
That consumer spending needs to grow 3%.
Year -- year in order to stimulate.
At the end of the third quarter we're right about 3% most people even in the retail industry think the fourth quarter it's going to be lousy now may -- AV we get this miracle.
You know -- -- -- says that Susan thanks Sergey get I don't think self.
And if it's less than that 3% a year to year which it probably will be.
I see a very flat economy if not unemployment and it goes back up.
OK -- happened what's your view on spending and what it means to the economy if we if we go over the -- taxpayers.
Last -- right which is why it's strange that there's been less than they were supposed to spend because right now -- after tax projects and never had so good with the payroll tax and the fact -- all the old tax -- so right now -- week yeah -- well that's -- no it's gonna get worse in fact if you look on this hi Marty you'll see retailers' stocks were doing well better than the market at large and whole last month when all the paranoia started taking in.
The taxes -- to go to the -- and are gonna fix any thing.
There was also big storm that different people's confidence but.
The bottom line is consumers are scared they don't know where the taxes are going to what ray what brackets and all this and it is we need to spend less now it's kind of recession we're gonna have higher spending this year than last year but not as high as the expectation that more a lot of as -- metres of lowered their their amounts -- cells are going to be.
It's a 100% fear based becoming currently is not about well -- But here does factor into this doesn't that Toby -- it it's that fear that they'll have eaten up have higher taxes upbeat -- -- services.
Well it does the credit you know what it -- dichotomy is if you will of our economy is it that sort of the top 20%.
Of earners spend about 60% almost of discretionary spending so it's like a 31 lever factor so if you're going to be worried about the economy and 13 of people saying -- they are.
It matters -- those people are and what we're seeing music in the higher income numbers in the people that actually are affected by these tax rate we are seeing the pull back and that's what I'm afraid of it's it's not the whole economy beings grids although I love those little teases you guys make.
But the issue of -- the top 20% of the people you don't stay at that spending level because if they start to pull back it has a three time to effect over the overall economy.
Is alert tell -- likes -- -- -- isn't what you think now about that but at the higher -- -- you know there's that's definitely a part of the equation here what are the other interesting -- that's happening in this season vs last season is that the retailers are not discounting as much as they did last year.
They are really what part on the sales very early in the season and they killed their margins last year and I'm not doing that this year.
And think you're seeing that people are spending less you know that they had sort of a direct correlation you want higher revenues belt Leo lower margins major -- -- -- They decided not to do that I think that that's right Nancy and again that's why I think.
Post Christmas January you're gonna see deeper sales because of agonies would -- inventory you go to Amazon today Susan you can fire -- up -- get on Monday.
That -- -- Larry Larry what do you say about that sure.
Why would -- -- the real concern is going to be actually for next year not this year and if we look at even the estimates of The National Retail Federation they say if taxes go up.
That is gonna kill retails -- the first half of next year so that's the concern where the average consumer get their -- got in the first half of the year then -- -- hit the roof.
They're gonna see how much more money they're paying to the government public to let.
-- -- -- your wallet to spend -- that's -- that they love so much so that -- this is a precursor to the real nasty stuff that happens after January 1 if we don't get a deal to keep taxes low forever.
Given to Susan's point if the look at the -- the people really stop spending and they're so alarmed about this they're gonna need -- and on congress to get a deal done and then we we did a deal that I think we all agree we need to deal but.
Now -- added that.
We're gonna just not even go there.
Now wouldn't got to talk about the fact that right -- -- do you have about a week more to do would yell but consumers are pulling back confidence is low Kerry beat.
Well -- absolutely and the only way the consumer's gonna get out and spent it is a double edged sword.
Is that when I went around the malls the only stories that we're doing we're like limited -- -- Where it was 50% off everything -- a limited to can't make money of 50% off everything remarkably.
But normally a keystone markup or a 100% -- get away from papers that they give -- away all their profits.
And so if that's the only place that consumers are spending -- CNN truth thirteen.
Because a -- -- report zero profits for the quarter so the problem is.
Consumers are out there even if they spend the retailers -- make -- any money no one wins in this kind of economy.
And Jonas if retailers are are really hitting.
Their margins that's a problem -- that we have not only customers not buying but retailers are hurt and that all you know feeds into itself.
It's a good sign -- -- video below the prices much this is they perceive the economy strong -- the consumer in as -- -- position they can be wrong because of what happened last few weeks but the perception is they can get away with higher prices one way or the other any price could only -- -- as well this recent panic you know.
The consumer got the memo the taxes are going up at some point next year.
What's the problem is nobody knows who was and why and what what part of it and -- -- -- if they just settled some sort of thing that could have been as bad the glad.
But we knew it before the holiday shopping season I think ultimately sales would have been -- knowing your taxes are gonna go up next year at least for some clarity.
As a business are somebody at a certain bracket point that may or may not be getting may increase or not.
Well -- -- the two mile radius that Gary travels for his shopping experience let me tell you.
I didn't visit that it may have been batted Potomac Maryland -- -- -- -- Texas I have never seem more human beings buying stuff it in the galleria -- what I actually act.
You -- what it at the apple and the other store that was never predict I don't because it stores don't want to tell me.
Yeah probably -- -- okay at a parts of the country that are doing OK and I think we forget that we tickets all is one thing and you know the bumper to come to do forget I Gary B go ahead and respond.
Well for -- information I was actually in Rockville Merrill all I have to file.
I went out a little bit now but I think -- I will work I don't know it NA in a few weeks what the retailers report.
-- says they're doing great I think they're doing -- they're doing as early foray pre sales are gonna have very little profits.
That Amazon by the way I think I'm gonna go long UPS because Amazon is had a record day on Friday -- All right -- on that --
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