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Power Play 3/19/2013

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    Budget bunny business, GOP moves closer to immigration deal and is the Tea Party movement a fad or fulcrum?

  • Duration 24:50
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The American people are tired of us not.

Allowing common sense amendments to come to the floor for a vote.

I mean is it would trillion dollars in spending if we had started.

Voting on amendments last Wednesday after the floor -- shut down and I think it was a shock among leadership.

It's -- McCain won his amendment on a bipartisan basis and was able to overturn the motion to table his amendment.

If we started voting on amendments then.

We would have already passed.

-- continuing resolution.

And bats over generous estimation of what Americans are paying attention that you -- worried about.

Was from the Republican senator.

From the great state of New Hampshire Kelly I -- Or as she should be known as part of the GOP's.

Hispanic outreach I -- And this is power play and I -- -- -- well and hello Internet it's good to see you on this Tuesday.

And what the senator I have is talking about there.

Was an effort today.

In the -- to cough up.

A continuing resolution to fund the government in the absence three years now.

A budget.

And if you think that's difficult -- -- -- how hard it is for congress to produce some sort of a spending plan and borrowing plan to get through the year after that because all that this CR sets up continuing resolution sets up is six months of fighting over the budget we will talk about that today and you'll enjoy it because we have a very special guest we'll talk about it we will also talk about movement on immigration inside the Republican Party.

As Rand Paul stakes at a position just to the right -- slumps to the inside track.

On Marco Rubio on immigration we'll talk about that and we will scientifically test this question the Tea Party.

Was it -- -- -- was a fulcrum on which the Republican Party -- we have a scholar who has done some research on this that's rather interesting findings we will do all of those things.

And more.

But I will keep for not 12 longer from new Internet.

Lou Dobbs mr.

dobbs -- welcome to the dominant Internet political telecast of the 1130 half hour.

It is great to be -- -- thank you it.

And I want to say something before we get under way because I know that you have he can't opinions about the budgeting process here in Washington.

But I want to say this.

Internet if you do not watch mr.

dobbs show.

On the Fox Business Network at 7 PM eastern you're depriving yourself not only of being smarter but having a very good time I always have a good time on the show and it is it is good -- so you are you need to get on the case and that.

-- -- -- -- It's true it is.

True.

A serviceable our current conveniences well how -- a -- and the troops.

We are already -- to have you with us -- -- -- Okay now.

You have made the point and I've been on your telecast.

When you have made this point.

That what is being discussed in Washington compared to -- the -- totality of the budget.

Crisis and problems facing the federal government is almost becomes ridiculous.

This guy I think it goes beyond ridiculous to the absurd it crosses that -- -- rather early in fact.

When -- way we're effectively talking and in terms about plays.

There for the remainder this fiscal year under sequestration 44 billion dollars.

Lots.

That is a budget of three point seven trillion dollars you don't even wanna have to use -- all bush the dust more of all those zeros to get to.

A significant.

Number.

It is preposterous and for this administration to continue.

With its nonsense canceling.

You know Easter egg rolls.

Tour is four for citizens -- to see the people's house.

This becomes the stop.

Well I think.

Massive civil unrest if it continues its just stupid -- believe.

And we have commentators who are trying to assess you know just how.

How difficult an issue is this for the White House to manage its not its silliness it's pure -- crop.

And they should be dismissed for the for the -- sensitive -- Well the perhaps for fear of the unrest that you describe the -- is back a White House.

After her making a that the tickets for the Easter egg roll carried with them a warning on the back that said look.

Because of budget problems this Easter egg -- may go away.

And if it is you'll have no.

Low fat low sugar care of chocolate chip muffins.

And so their back.

But the truth is isn't it sir that.

Four.

The White House they have a long time -- to make things hurt in ways that are not embarrassing for the president they can do a lot of stuff with federal spending right.

They can.

That we should point out that the Easter egg roll by the way is primarily financed by corporate donors and others.

However and the White House strategist who are.

Brilliant -- of their own right.

Are failing to connect a lot of dots here that lead back to that very embarrassment as you suggest the White House would like -- avoid for the president.

They're not succeeding this is immensely embarrassing to President Obama.

And it is one of the few things that is actually rolling up.

And landing and his feet for which he is going to -- held accountable we're seeing some reflection of that I believe.

In his approval ratings have these most recent polls showing him under water.

This is not to as you know customary territory for them for the great leader.

And right now the American people seem to be in no mood for pomposity.

And you know just simply posing.

They want real policies that result in solid direction toward a better future.

And may we ask for you to divulge the secret of what will be on your telecast tonight will you please tell us.

Well we're going to be talking about as you might expect -- Easter egg rolls the continuing resolution to progress toward or not.

And what we can expect of the president's trip to.

To Israel and what.

He hopes to accomplish and what is hoped will be accomplished -- -- you know from the Israeli point of view tonight.

Will be going.

Well into the adventurous territory of -- -- pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants Rand Paul Marco Rubio.

Standing tall for precisely that fact.

Internet I give you the pride of Childress county Texas Lou Dobbs mr.

dobbs we thank you for joining us great to be with you mr.

Starr -- Indeed it okay.

Internet I want to tell you one more thing before I let you pause to refresh yourself and collect yourself.

And that's this you should follow me on Twitter -- to show and I'm I'm I'm not gonna be embarrassed about asking for not anymore.

And you should follow -- at -- -- because there's at all.

That is called.

Budget bunny business because I'd amend the liberation -- But it's called on him.

-- -- budget business and is there and I think you will be informed and entertained so I submitted Q&A follow me to several you can also talk to me directly on Twitter in addition to.

Joining -- down below OK book.

We have to take a quick break but when we come back we'll talk about that very immigration question.

That is so vexed the Republican Party they're trying to reboot on this subject.

And Rand Paul.

The libertarian minded conservative from Kentucky.

May be offering the party a way out of the track.

We'll talk about that when we come back -- stick around.

You know we haven't had any personal discussion but our staffs are talking and I think a lot of conservative Republicans will support this.

In fact I think without my amendment they won't get conservative Republican support in this test to pass of the house also.

So I think really my concept for making sure the you have border securities the only way you're gonna get significant Republican support for this.

And that's.

Very collegial threat was issued by Rand Paul the junior senator from the commonwealth of Kentucky appearing on Hannity last night.

This power play and what senator Paul is talking about there that the we he that he was -- -- is he and senator Marco Rubio.

Who happened to you yes it's time to start saying it happened to be.

The front runners in the Republican 2016 nominating process.

And what senator Paul was talking about there's something that he is rolling out today.

Which is -- and he.

Is OK with senator rubio is immigration plan but he'd like one -- one amendment put on there that says you don't get an amnesty you do not get what is now being called legalization.

Which sounds like people are talking about pot but you don't get legalization.

Or amnesty.

Unless the congress votes to say that the borders and secure is this a way forward.

For the Republicans to find.

Some consensus on the issue.

Illegal immigration I don't know.

I don't know I just don't know that's why we brought to you people who do -- And those people are and Julie were -- Penske who joins us from the mother ship in New York City she is a former.

Communications director for Jon Corzine as she is a Fox News contributor that makes for a Democrat patriotic American and friend of this and that telecast so Juli welcome -- Yes -- it -- now that you're here.

Sweet.

Quite so I can't I can't help it.

And I will be better still after I tell you that Michelle -- -- -- here she is.

A former Press Secretary to Newt Gingrich ran for president but you may not recall this but he ran for president in 2012.

And -- -- -- -- speaker of the house and that makes her as Republicans also patriotic etc.

etc.

etc.

welcome.

-- -- Let's start which usually because you are in New York right and we don't and if we lose the line we would be very -- we did not hear your wisdom.

And the question is this.

The Republicans the Republican National Committee yesterday.

And Rand Paul yesterday and today are basically is telling conservatives this.

Give up the idea of any sort of deportation give up the idea of anybody.

It is going to be rounded up and taken out of the country and get hit to the fact that there has to be some but they called pathway to citizenship.

Can they make that -- Well let's serve Lazio Bryant's Davis's -- overhaul of the RNC that we heard about yesterday which as you know a lot of good rhetoric that the substance really there's there's no change the substance mean ultimately.

They can talk about immigration reform they can talk about a pathway to citizenship if you're gonna say that it's up to the congress.

To determine whether our borders are safe.

That means that I don't think in -- my life time you're ever gonna get the majority at least the house as it's constituted today.

To say that our borders are secure enough that we have a pathway to legalization is ultimately look at -- Latino in your somebody.

Three different outlets here are some who really cares about this issue here to say look this is all very nice rhetoric in your pretending that you're working with us to meet us halfway.

But event of the day you're not gonna see any kind of pathway to citizenship -- he -- we -- caught amnesty with every wanna call it.

And you know -- comes when he when he sixteen when when when Rand Paul wants to run -- policy gets the nomination.

I don't see him picking up much more support from that demographic -- -- The Romney did because nothing's gonna change and you're -- up to the congress the most incompetent people on the planet according to everybody.

To decide what's right and what's wrong about our borders and -- -- that's never gonna happen.

We'll be to be fair journalists -- probably below congress.

Wow that's -- depends on the day they sure we're.

We're we're close anyway.

Mr.

-- -- -- raises an interesting point.

Man and that is this conservatives yes they do not want to get -- wobbled on the idea of is basically we've talked about before Internet it's a trade.

What do you trade for amnesty slash legalization slash whatever.

And for conservatives they say if we give you that before the borders are secure the borders will never be secure so that may secure some conservative -- but -- it set up a bunch of -- wouldn't it set up a bunch of votes in the future in which each time Democrats could say and Republicans are voting again.

To not give you a pathway to citizenship -- -- -- Now we've seen this play out for an happened in 1986.

The Simpson's -- deal.

Reagan -- or three parts to border security amnesty and employer verification workplace.

Amnesty happened in the other two -- and so this is protecting against that he's not saying we're not we're not for an eventual path to citizenship we are.

But there has to be a provision that holds congress or or whatever agencies in charge of -- of -- people accountable to make sure that the border is secure otherwise you know I.

I and -- doesn't think congress is is.

They're bad guys to be -- But police are accountable to the people who also we put it.

Two aircraft that's accountable to nobody and it's not working at this point so at least it's a provision that brings it -- year by year.

And people can measure Julie before you're about -- That -- we have a bit of breaking news WHO.

In Iowa which is big.

Radio talk talk radio station at Iowa apparently is reporting that -- and Paul will be the headliner.

At the at the state Republican party's Lincoln day dinner in May so anyone who's saying that rainfall.

Is running for president eight.

Any attempt I would tell she is running for president back on Rand Paul said he wasn't gonna have a third party bid and everybody for Mitt Romney on down knew that was to protect the -- we knew this going back a year and a half ago.

But you know yeah excellent yeah I am yeah you damn well -- -- -- the -- under the famous I was troubled season doesn't become the next how many but.

I think advent of the day a look at who's to say how the borders are secure what's the what's the barometer of it which -- the borders are secure one guy for next go.

Gets in under the -- that automatically see the -- is not secure I mean there's no metrics by which we determine.

Whether our borders are secure or not I would say that thanks George Bush and continued under Obama.

We've got more people patrolling the border now than we ever have this at least in the past -- -- 2004.

Double -- in the number of agents patrolling the border but you're never gonna -- to fully secure the border to the extent that we're not gonna build a while even Israelis.

Have built a wall to secure their border and even that border is not secure -- short of building a wall.

-- fans you know their entire continent or you know -- -- entire United States I don't know how you're gonna say.

The borders are secure nobody -- Rand Paul has given us -- metric by which we determine what security that border it's.

Michelle one of the things though that's been discussed in this and this is coming more and more -- it.

Republicans don't like to say the -- self -- anymore.

That was not -- But there is the idea that if you have something called.

Card -- terminal to check identification.

That in time.

It will have 88 squeezing effect on illegal immigrants that they will either get in the system or go home do you think full implementation of.

And I think it's just another step.

The larger plan for immigration reform that is definitely achievable and a Rand Paul actually isn't totally for it I think he's he's far away that you can make sure people are working legally but he doesn't want to turn business owners.

And employers into police -- But yes I I definitely think that that is another step that has a lot of support from both parties and should get past and I think.

Is another reason why this focus on something comprehensive.

And this all inclusive deal is just doomed to fail.

Because there's there's so many little things you can agree on in the meantime.

And at the same time when popular support amongst Americans in both parties one at a time secure the border find out what the metrics artist to measure success -- -- missing and then go from there and do legalization there and do H one B visas.

And then and then -- workplace verification and carry the American people -- with -- so by the time we get to the question citizenship.

We have some sort content.

She's got -- nimble because she was a gymnast at UCLA.

She's nimble because she's Smart and know stuff about politics.

And you do I don't know whether you're -- -- at all Julie.

-- -- you -- can't even do a cart wheel on the -- -- tennis overseeing.

No I think I think I'll -- -- I'll hold out of that title -- -- Juli and Michelle -- thank you very much for making time for us thank you.

Okay Internet we're gonna take a quick break but when we come back we're gonna get a little blaming it on you know.

We're gonna pose this question can we quantify.

The effect of the Tea Party movement on American politics Republican Party it's better etc.

etc.

we have brought.

A very big break in into tell you the answer to that question to be with us when we come back sister correct.

And that is what it looked like the Tea Party movement got started in the United States at.

Tax day protests around the country in 2009.

And this is power play -- Internet here's the question for you.

Is the Tea Party movement.

-- -- as it was originally constituted.

Is it is it fading away.

Or has it changed the Republican Party in American politics and a pretty considerable way.

I might submit to you that we have some anecdotal evidence in the in the people love Rand Paul Marco Rubio that in fact it has had a lasting effect on American politics and will continue to do so they'll take my word for.

-- what do I -- I'm just some simple country pundit.

That's why we bring for you stand -- Close right -- -- couldn't.

-- so he is an economist at the American Enterprise Institute.

Which is of course the most important.

Intellectual.

Repository.

Think tank on the right side of things.

In America -- stand welcome.

Q okay so here's the question you studied.

The the effects of the Tea Party on American politics how does one study that.

It's got everything she said you can you can look at anecdotal evidence -- but what we try to do reserve Bronx -- quantitative test.

So we -- that five or 42 different rallies on tax day 2009.

Which is when the movement just took off.

And -- compared the effects of large and small rallies on that day.

During the summer.

2009.

And -- -- donations local volunteers and eventually in did it 2000 -- midterm elections what we see is that they stay at larger rallies initially.

Ended up with more local volunteers more donations and more votes or for Republicans.

-- -- what does history tell us.

-- certainly and many of argued before.

That without that movement that the Republicans would have not been nearly as good position in 2010.

But then the argument comes well the Republicans -- to part of the right they became too conservative and as a consequence boss.

In 2012.

Is there any way to measure back.

Yes -- that I mean there's anecdotal evidence for that as well the what you see is when you look at the at the aggregate picture.

The Republicans won by accident margin of about six million votes -- the event and it turns.

And we believe -- at least our estimates indicate.

That that would be accepted that margin would be four million votes -- without the Tea Party movement so -- B two million votes says six it's.

Which would translate into -- -- -- Yeah yeah they're very much so yeah certainly the Republicans can thank their continuing.

Majority in the house that -- in the past and other Smart people have made the analogy.

Too deep -- Vietnam War movement inside the Democratic Party that brought a lot of new energy.

Into the Democratic Party lowered the demographic.

Price point it -- for the part -- and change them.

It would your expectation be that this movement.

Will be similar for the Republicans.

So -- I mean there -- a couple of crucial differences.

So that the Vietnam.

The anti Vietnam War movement I think -- -- young people at the party movement which is an advantage at the same time.

Of course the anti Vietnam War movement and about -- with riots and NB -- did it just doesn't -- high -- And that's I think a big advantage for the Republican Party list.

All right so what should we be looking for as we head into these mid terms what.

What should the the home political scientists be looking for as we head into the mid term elections.

So I think.

One of the one of the key findings.

In our papers is that local activities -- law.

That's even though there's a a year and a half that goes by between the that it affects their rallies and the eventual mid term elections.

There's still big differences from the -- to look out it's I think locally generated enthusiasm.

Numbers of local organizers think those things.

To pay attention to him.

You know why you should listen to what the people at the American Enterprise Institute have to say because people like -- as they have some pretty impressive -- -- -- -- thank you for making news today -- Internet -- got a little business you may first of all perhaps my most importantly congratulations.

To the people of West Virginia who today can we hear from an enemy and a we get the news that the pepperoni -- is now the official state -- of West Virginia for a resolution in the West Virginia house today so.

Congratulations and remember keep them Fairmont style no -- sliced pepperoni that's the only way to -- That's a true fact on the hunt -- Jonathan Hunt is up next that is also true fact.

But how about.

Some power points and these are some important power points for us here today.

-- points here ten years.

Let's take a listen right now to what we heard ten years ago today.

My fellow citizens.

At this hour.

American and coalition forces are in the early stages of military operations.

To disarm Iraq to free its people.

And to defend the world from grave danger.

That's what president George W.

Bush said ten years ago today as we -- -- an invasion of Iraq.

Spins to seek regime change for the ouster of Saddam Hussein.

And it has been a long.

And difficult road to this point for the United States and for rock and for the world.

But there are some lessons to be learned beyond.

-- these small political points that police -- today as people look back on this so here's your first PowerPoint.

We made at home and abroad.

What ever you think about the Iraq War.

Whatever it is that you think the world as we know it is changed as a result of it in the United States is changed as a result of -- too.

The Republican Party won't ever be the same in the same way the Democrats aren't the same.

After one of their president's launch the Vietnam War was Lyndon Johnson who started the Vietnam War was a Democratic Party that was forever changed -- -- the Republicans will be too that's a true fact Democrats their president in fact there.

Two term president owes his position in the white -- is opposition of the war this has been a hugely consequential moment.

Inside American politics and as we see -- playing out across the Middle East today ahead of the president's trip there for the most dangerous region of the world.

A big deal something worth -- here's your second hour point this is more important it's a millennial.

Movement.

Look the United States it'd been a long time since we had had a war certainly of -- of that magnitude and that duration and from millennial generation that was much maligned much maligned young people -- much thought they were.

Bad news they were not interest did they work.

Interested only in themselves in the petting and praise that they -- -- from the time that they were watching Sesame Street but my goodness.

Have you met an Iraq War veteran do you know these people are you aware.

Of the character and depth of service of these folks not just there but in Afghanistan of course also to but for a generation of millennial they learned a lot about country service patriotism leadership.

And sacrifice and so whatever else you think about the war you can say that for this generation.

It has been a big big deal so -- reserve PowerPoint and this is as simple as it can get thank you.

Thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you.

For all the families that lost for all those -- are still struggling to recover for every one who gave up so much in defense of this country.

An effort prosecute that war.

Thank you for those of us who didn't have to do that thank you.

Those your -- points for today and now as we'd like to do every day we want to leave you with the work from our entrance.

And look I think there's a difference here between ideology and technique I'm not sure you want the RNC deciding ideology we had a good debate.

Well -- -- you you you can see the outlines.

Of the debate in the party I think it'll be healthy.

You've got a lot of tendencies and it's the new political leadership who will decide.

The ideological direction of the party.

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