Larry Sabato's first predictions for 2014
Can Democrats take back the House?
- Duration 5:04
- Date Mar 19, 2013
Can Democrats take back the House?
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Well there is our -- -- it back again so soon.
-- at Houston one of America's most respected political forecasters and today offering his first full prediction.
Of the 2014 mid terms -- you know President Obama has been focused on those.
As a lot of his behavior since he won his second term as we are told been focused on trying to recapture the house for the Democrats.
And our next guest has an eye opening look ahead.
At to chances of the president doing that -- seven -- was the director of the center for politics at the University of Virginia Larry good to see again.
Nice to see you two -- event.
I'm -- -- people can't reach through the televisions to strangle us have you enjoyed your break can you had a nice and I -- you've been putting it to -- -- trying to forecast.
The next big election but it as if you're not alone the president seems very focused on the in the goal of -- -- the house.
For the Democrats and the Democrats do indeed have a much higher approval rating in the house right now than the Republicans.
And so you say what about the -- chances of doing that.
Well they're certainly the things you mentioned working in the democrats' favor but I'll tell you something the Democrats have to pick up.
Seventeen -- seats to take control of the house and 2014.
Megan when you go to the district level and you try to find those seventeen seats it's really difficult to do.
This is going to be the sixth year -- election for President Obama and other words the second mid term of a two term administration.
In the vast majority of cases in American history.
This is not been a good election for the incumbent White House.
So the idea of Democrats not only picking up seats but picking up a substantial number of -- That becomes a very difficult thing to do.
But are all rules out the window I mean because because we were told in the wake of the presidential elections at the electorate -- that Barack Obama managed to make the electorate.
Look and -- very different then than.
It had bet that.
If you know people's insistence that registered voters wouldn't turn out to be likely voters did not pan out he actually got huge coalitions to the polls -- -- expect to get to the polls.
Not going to be the case -- twenty -- Well it's gonna partially be the case I would estimate that Democrats will pick up.
Nationally about one point 6% of the vote.
Compared to 2010.
Just based on the growth of the minority population.
You know Democrats get about 80% of all minority votes combined Republicans can get up to about 60%.
The votes of white voters.
So obviously that's a plus for the Democrats but.
Turnout declined substantially -- and from a presidential year to a mid term election.
On average for presidential elections.
All the way down to 48% for mid terms that's an advantage for Republicans because the people who turn out in mid terms tend to be older.
In less minority and then the less young than the people who turnout for presidential election.
And do you believe that that's going to be the case and -- fourteen notwithstanding.
What we saw during the last presidential election in terms of the electorate and obviously.
The president as he put it.
To put something I think and he said in twenty -- those same president -- got the same get out the vote effort but he lost his party lost big time in 2010 in the house.
Do you believe 24 -- -- look more like 2010 mid terms or like the 2012 presidential election year.
I think it'll be in between but closer to.
A mid to our normal mid term election 2010 was a heavily Republican mid term.
2006 was a heavily democratic mid term a normal mid term election.
Has a reaction.
To the incumbent White House party that is the with the president's party loses seats now it's possible because of the factors you're citing minority.
Vote growth for example.
That that the president's party will gain some seats I just can't find seventeen of them net that they will gain across the country.
How -- -- Republicans thought I'd literally in the senate because right now the Republicans -- in the minority.
In the senate the Democrats control that chamber and the Republicans need a net gain of six seats if they want to control the senate.
Today of any chance of doing that.
They have a chance you know since World War II.
The average gains for the out of power party in the White House that is the Republicans and 2014.
The average -- has been six seats.
How many seats to the Republicans need to take control the senate.
Sex but of course that assumes negative I can be blunt.
That they don't nominate a bunch of incompetent and income groups.
That would hurt their cause I can say hey look it's -- seats they should otherwise -- it.
Incumbent nick above sometimes do make it through but you know hopefully the system manages to weed those folks out -- thank you.
Thanks a lot -- the bald man going on record first before anybody -- what's gonna happen next year.