Also in this playlist...
This transcript is automatically generated
Ten states ten.
Double digits at a minimum those in the number of states for Democrats are gonna have to play some defense in senate race is in the Mac keeps growing.
As retirements and weird stuff -- political issues continues to expand the playing field for Republicans hoping to -- at least.
Democratic majorities in the US senate next year this is power play and I.
And -- -- -- and happy Wednesday to you Internet -- hope you're having.
Those in the Christian faith tradition of -- having a good holy week for those in the Jewish faith tradition of your having a wonderful passover.
Everybody else at least it's not snowing so.
We will talk about that we will talk about senate races we will.
We will talk about the winners and losers in the latest round of culture wars they have been suddenly reignited -- a host of fronts.
And the dynamics are shifting.
On gay marriage gun control immigration and the -- eight.
We will have an all star panel in miniature to discuss that.
And later we will talk about Joseph Biden is he really really really running for president.
He's doing some stuff that looks like he might well be doing just that our own campaign Carl Cameron will be with us.
We will break that down because it's never too early to look ahead on sixteen you know -- you wouldn't be here.
But -- let me tell you what you are here for for sure which is incisive and insightful.
On what's going on in the congress of the United States that's one thing that you're looking -- somebody who can provide that I think.
Is Meredith -- she is a staff writer for roll call -- The duke fan but I am open to -- it.
That's what everybody knows my little things -- likely get -- line is that IA had my AA issues that cut chaos that was my background before this is this is like the Republicans have no way that we like I was -- that crazy about bush.
I had my reservations now.
He he got to give myself the application otherwise they're going to be all right let's end the insightful.
Writing -- -- places.
-- -- record I let -- well we'll let.
-- -- Political for now we'll let it roll them out but I don't try to forget about what you people ruined -- -- your people you people that's fine so how about 12014.
With Tim Johnson in South Dakota announcing his retirement that opens up another opportunity for Republican -- big time South Dakota is.
Grown increasingly Republican.
It could be tough Johnson's -- Iran right.
So they're now going to be three open seats and highly competitive places Republicans which is half of what they'll need to get the majority Iowa.
Some people are considering Michigan may be is being in play with the yeah it would depends.
And and there are a lot of states where -- democratic incumbents running but the president either struggled or at -- costs.
You maybe you may be -- print reporter but you've done a very effective job of setting up this graphic again let's bring up the graphic yeah again I -- they -- now in the one color there and I don't know which color.
It is you see South Dakota Iowa New Jersey and Michigan that's where incumbent Democrats are retiring in the in the teller there.
South Dakota Iowa New Jersey and Michigan.
And as Meredith points out at least two of those.
Look good for Republicans because of what mid term -- look like in the other two to get the right candidate and enough money in Michigan and New Jersey weird things -- And then in the other color there which I don't know what it is is Alaska Arkansas Louisiana Montana -- How happy spring like.
And Louisiana Montana West Virginia North Carolina those are red states Romney -- states.
Many cases like in West Virginia -- like.
You know -- -- -- and stuff where you have Democrats.
-- when you only need six.
Rich Republicans felt pretty confident going into 2012.
That they can definitely gonna kinda.
Hasn't wanted to -- up with -- -- -- because I think that this is a really important -- to talk about like the map looked extraordinarily.
Favorable for Republicans and -- to the point where no one wanted the job to run the campaign for the senate Democrat -- primary took it.
Because there were promises that were made it -- and the other doesn't.
Tell us where did you hit it pretty well and it and a if for some credit for that happening I think that the NRC the campaign.
Are -- Republicans really struggled in trying to put together.
A strategy because in a lot of ways they're between a rock and a hard place they have they struggled in primaries because sometimes that -- -- and and Democrats have been more strategic in how they -- -- Missouri for example is up.
-- prime example of it was a place where Republicans absolutely should have won the -- legitimate blank.
Yes it was it was -- legitimate pick up opportunity for the blank -- Yes you know.
I will say this I've heard a lot of people particularly were trying to rebrand the senate Republican -- inner talk about trying to eliminate or minimize tadic -- moments.
But to anyone looking that that seems more like symptoms of the problem.
Then the problems and problem we'll so it.
I think that the problem is this larger struggle.
Between trying to find the candidates that you think are electable in primaries in states like Missouri -- with outside influences.
Now you now that one of the problems that the Republicans have experiences.
A lot of outside influences and in the -- in the Missouri senate races we've talked about here they had an issue where there wasn't just the establishment candidate vs the Tea Party -- outsider candidate.
There was a panoply.
Of choices each backed by different outside groups -- the senatorial committee not sure exactly which way to go in Aiken who was the least wanted.
But because he represented a hugely Republican House district that -- name -- -- slip through like five way primary.
Well and because Democrats -- that they -- they may believe yeah Sharon angle blueprint.
No I I think that part of the problem is is.
In 2010 these outside groups Republicans were extraordinarily successful is that a lot of money and Republicans are better at -- -- in a lot of ways -- Democrats right now but when you throw money into the -- That didn't.
Can -- result -- but in most elections aren't we collections right.
And see if you more strategic about it in the number one thing you need in Washington where his control.
And there's a lot of there's a loss of political control.
Both -- messaging and strategy when all of these other people get involved so I think it's there it's a real struggle for them and they're going to have to you know walk that.
Okay now for Democrats they have -- line to walk to the president's is out and he's talking about gun control.
He's talking about illegal immigration.
He's talking his administration is going on gay marriage.
In other things this these are difficult subject for Democrats both in the general election but also.
In creating potential primary challenges and that we saw that play out 2010 Arkansas.
With Blanche Lincoln who came under fire from the left.
For -- moderate stances.
As the president pushes forward on this Democrats there are a lot of red state Democrats don't feel confident that.
Will a -- I think that.
You know we should take some of those issues individually -- -- I think it's a little bit unfair to lump them all together these at this point there they're on different paths one the president has always been bad.
Congressional Republicans in congress that large red -- when he campaign users campaigning at congress often they're -- people -- this created consternation intention.
With Democrats also they don't love the way he goes about his legislative strategy.
But putting that aside I think certain issues pose more significant problems and others for the use.
-- what's your number one before we go.
I think the most complicated might be immigration and gun control -- and -- -- administration isn't that serious and well we'll see tomorrow's the day of action.
Tomorrow's the day of action remember that the president came to Capitol Hill and met with house and senate Republicans and didn't talk to them about gun control or gun violence so that's how seriously he's looking after rest.
Is that all right not bad for duke fan we thank you for making I try to represent my -- well.
I'm not -- but I appreciate it.
Given -- opportunity to get myself if you will give you the benefit of the doubt merit if you were very good thanks for making imports yeah thanks for having -- okay Internet.
Collect yourself -- forget about you forget about basketball as a matter effective government -- and like me just -- doesn't even exist I don't even know who plays college basketball but when we come back.
We will talk about the question of those culture wars was very topics that Meredith was just mentioning there how are they really playing out on the ground and what's the big picture say.
We'll discuss that when we come back just for a.
The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on gay marriage issues Republicans like that crews are threatening a filibuster.
Gun control measures.
The fight over abortion continues on the state level.
And immigration looks to be.
Almost as intractable as ever and this is our place as things are usually true -- site -- and other.
-- but the dynamics of these things are.
Changing as it relates to politics with different winners in different losers than we've seen the previous -- so I didn't buy out next year is gonna play out right now.
Let's talk about that channeling.
Because we're not because we have people here to do so might as well as.
You know Richard Fowler he's the host of the aptly named Richard Fowler show -- -- -- radio.
Which you -- listen to a WP WCE 1480 -- if you live in Washington DC it elsewhere.
Probably on the Internet I bet it's available right -- or syndicate at the -- always the out come these indicated that an Atlanta Hawks.
And match -- he is the principal.
-- -- -- -- -- -- Quite and he is very importantly former White House political director under George W -- -- Republican strategist both.
Friends and generous friends to this Internet telecast so.
Richard let me start with you.
Mark Pryor -- US senator.
He's in -- 2004.
He voted to extend the what -- -- -- assault weapons and this time he's Wu noted -- -- -- I'm not I don't wanna do that now.
So we're we -- seeing some change four red state senate Democrats going into this election year but at the same time.
We're seeing that Republicans especially on the issue gay marriage are sort of doing an about face from where they were -- 2004 give us the label it.
Well I think you know look I think our politics are changing in this country a great deal I think -- -- seeing more more influence to organizations I think when it comes the gun control to be we've seen you know -- the -- great power of the NRA sort of come in and sort of take hold of a lot of members such that -- up for reelection.
On this coming cycle that's going to be death I don't think this cycle is predictable and any by any sort -- images from a trip Democrats are gonna win.
Or Republicans are going.
On that front what I think when it comes to the gay marriage issue I think what we're seeing -- this -- public opinion changes start to sort of push politicians and a place where there's sort of two.
Count themselves the public opinion -- -- Mark Warner about recently we've seen on Claire McCaskill command supportive yeah.
Jon Tester Hillary Clinton billed -- It was -- we always we always did always know we always knew about -- Like a little.
I think what what that sort of says for the when he sixteen -- for you to be a candidate running for president the democratic field you have to be probe of marriage equality but you also probably have to be -- -- -- right.
Look I don't personally I don't think.
Things have really changed -- it took -- what you're really seeing is that.
On the gay marriage issue you're seeing people come out take positions I mean.
Did anybody really believe that John Kerry didn't believe gay marriage I didn't even believe that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama didn't know what I think you know I didn't write -- I guess I guess here yeah there.
You know Rob Portman comes out he's got his situation I just think what you're seeing is is that people feel he did not come out by the way came out in support of -- kid just sort of -- -- -- different you know I think what you're seeing is politicians are more comfortable kind of go their own way -- -- But I actually think.
The countries are divided on that issue and -- when it comes to gun control I think this is still a -- Second Amendment country.
And I think those Democrats that flirt we've got to control that come from either purple or red states will be right back in sports Second Amendment you're right whenever it's close to -- box.
And Duncan to gun control is the easy one Richard because for Republicans because not only as you say the NRA provides the muscle.
On the subject as Greg Chang points out here as he follows he's he's Smart he follows me on Twitter at he's barrel he says this there's still a major split between social conservatives and the rest of us.
And the Republicans have to decide where they are the gun control is not one of the things that summons that up you can be a social conservative.
Or libertarian conservative and still be all -- -- big time Second Amendment.
Right W Boudreau -- -- point I think we'll see from the United States and I mean I voted him -- Greg is right on that point I think we'll see from the senate on gun control -- -- -- -- in the -- -- present -- -- big -- -- is gonna move the bill whatsoever.
But think again with on the senate side it passes like assault -- assault wrote this -- -- is not in the bill.
Background check is something that I back buckets and I think is more so bipartisan mean Wayne Lapierre couple years ago that he even agreed to background check that it ends I think we'll see that issue passed the senate.
Get stalled in the house when it comes to gay marriage and it comes to those type of issues.
And I -- consultancy packed couple weeks ago that the Republican Party is really in a sort of you know I would think bedlam but I think that's always in any -- and I think they're everybody's always -- there have -- -- having a little bit of you know internal badly does this disruption I think -- the best -- you have those people who over what I think what you have your social conservatives and you have people what we've gone too -- the right a lot of issues on and we need to sort of come back and sort of moderate socialist I don't know -- Don't regret it's that.
Republicans and says -- you have some -- Disparate.
You know voices in your party you guys were always the party.
That people would say was the -- party because you were filled with all kinds of it.
Adjusting coalition and Republicans had three basic supporters they have -- conservatives.
They have hawks and if fiscal conservative -- those disagreements but.
But time in the morning as certain -- to -- -- those troops can come together.
And I elected president I mean I don't think that's absolutely true -- -- didn't elect Mitt Romney in two young president elect me Romney.
We're all all those conservatives that all concerns or just you know fiscal conservatives are all worried about their primary election mr.
McConnell is one of those.
We -- Dick Lugar -- fall because the mid term election a great senator.
Fell because you know the partnership the -- part of their right so I think that the party is how -- shifted to -- last night I mean honestly I got he got he got outages -- Much of what you say is true but it's also -- that Dick Lugar.
Enjoyed is Obama asking a little bit and warned that give -- that he was a little -- broke out it was a little too broad and Obama his commercials but yeah that's a little too much got to give back left so let's work.
Will the culture wars -- significant next here is this something is this is this a moment that we're thinking about now and next -- fadeaway Matt.
Yes the Tea Party movement within the Republican Party was misunderstood -- just about economic issues the culture issues are alive and well this is.
This election will hinge on Obama and obamacare in all of these policies Obama's pushing.
What say you I think there will be -- -- -- this election will hinge on what happens to immigration what happens to marriage equality and what happens the gun control.
Smart fair -- patriotic and -- -- -- -- both of you guys are -- trying to get out in advance -- have my bottom dollar particularly.
Hey guys thanks for being with us -- -- -- UW like Internet Carl Cameron and you do because he knows a lot -- a lot.
So what about Joseph Biden is he really running for president people have snicker -- -- about it when you look at the numbers and you look at how it works guy could be quite formidable.
Hillary Clinton is as qualified or more qualified than I am to be vice president on his face of America.
Let's get that straight.
She's a truly close personal friend she is qualified to be president of the United States America she's easily qualified to be vice president United States America.
And quite frankly.
It might have been a better pick than me.
And that's self -- agent to the extreme it was Joseph Biden way back in 2008 when he was -- town hall meeting.
In Nashua, New Hampshire.
On September 10 just after.
He had become -- the vice presidential nominee saying Hillary Clinton should probably would have been better than him but he was glad to be doing it anyway.
This is powered by welcome back so Joseph Biden.
And though his job approval numbers are not super.
People like him he's a likable human being could he actually run for president exploring that subject today is campaign -- Cameron -- and -- of all such things Carl welcome back.
-- -- -- -- -- -- The the he'd received wisdom be fully acknowledged wisdom is that Hillary Clinton is only a matter of time until Hillary Clinton.
Is the democratic nominee and that we're just marking time but -- -- now.
And this time in 26 team for the Democrats.
But Joseph Biden offers some interest and wrinkles sure.
I mean everybody serves as if Hillary gets in the -- I -- right but V don't say that if Hillary doesn't get in that they will.
But Joseph Biden has.
He was on the campaign trail for the president's reelection last year he started talking and -- really conspicuously about -- sixteen -- what he's done since then.
Suggest that he's taking advantage of Hillary's absence.
You know she's now known as secretary of state she's on her R&R -- -- the next year and a half which doubles for setting things up quietly and she's not taking the opportunities that -- now cans so.
Odd during the inauguration week and the president's having his inauguration -- the dancing -- balls and Joseph Biden brings the Iowa New Hampshire delegations of the hot shots from the too early voting states to the vice president's mansion at the naval observatory that's them and now.
Because Hillary is not in the game taking up these invitations to go give big fundraising speeches and stuff like that -- under the secretary of state she's out of circulation.
She he has -- too big much coveted speaking engagements.
Next month -- go to Michigan in the next week -- month after that he will speak in South Carolina.
South Carolina is really important -- these are both Jefferson Jackson dinners -- big fund raising events for the state parties which means he makes lots of friends by putting money in their hands.
And in Michigan and South Carolina that will be remembered so he's already courted Iowa and New Hampshire.
He's already got speaking engagement South Carolina Biden is filling the void of the early 2016 campaign like nobody else's.
-- will he perhaps to pass if Hillary gets into the race sure but if she doesn't get into the race he will have already taken up all the occupied space available and be well -- his -- -- -- And while Andrew Cuomo is fighting it out in Albany are trying to get out on the road Biden as little to do between now and then.
And 2014 affords him big opportunities he'll leave to go out and make new friends because he I know -- have the senate race in Iowa.
But the senate race in Michigan that races in South Carolina and New Hampshire and.
And you talk about -- -- a nice guy he's he's he's jovial and everything else but -- it.
There's there's -- the shorthand to Joseph Biden is he's a gaffe machine.
Quite you know he's there for the signing of Obama care any whispers in the president's here obscenity about what a big deal was not -- -- -- not a very good -- as an aggregate picked up by like -- so you know there's that component of the Joseph Biden profile but the other one is that a couple of times he's been able to use his old cronies on the Republican side of the US senate.
To make some last minute deals that the president could pull off -- the guys in the senate themselves alone could pull off so.
He he has shown occasional flashes of ability as the vice president.
And as a potential 2016 candidate particularly.
As as you say that the rough was was everybody's -- for Hillary.
And when she left the State Department.
There were -- huge bunch of Hillary loyalists there and many of them were trying to figure out what they should do for work stay at the State Department in the Kerry administration of state.
Perhaps go -- foreign policy back on the hill or maybe even go to the vice president's shop over at the White House.
And when those invitations are extended to people they need to know that they're gonna be available for Hillary should it.
And there have been some assurances that hey if you were to work in this place of that place -- that place it wouldn't necessarily.
Take Hillary people away right from their availability even if they would work in the vice president's office you that's the kind of thing that assures an awful lot of Hillary people in the -- she'll be there and maybe -- -- would be.
She better be there they're going to be an awful lot of disappointed Democrats out there today.
Well look Carl clear who like I want when it from a 121000 days before the next election you know you are starting to feel once we get down to triple digits that it has really -- -- -- -- -- really -- But we're gonna enjoy -- for -- scant days that we have you here instead of crisscrossing the nation were.
Making the most but it JJ dinners to go Joseph Biden so it's going to be good try try -- -- it's robbery.
Carl thanks for days of president.
OK couple things -- -- Johnny sage says it annoys me that we're wasting yet another month on issues that people don't really care about.
Almost no ranks gay marriage or gun control of the top of their political priorities.
This is true -- -- but for those who do.
It matters a great deal and there's money -- A lot of pent up electoral potential in those folks will go out and knock on doors and do things motivating the base as we see election after election.
Is very important.
On the hunt Jonathan Hunt is up next I know you like that.
Also I haven't pointed out thoroughly enough today that if you follow me -- -- -- You can have my column -- that I tweet for you it's totally available it's right there and you can check with me right here on the twitters too.
That -- about how the credit the declining approval ratings for the president and rising.
Pessimism among the electorate.
Is re playing a cycle that has not been super awesome for Democrats.
Certainly wasn't in 2010 they need to look out for it now if they hope to get through mid terms with their scalps.
So that's available -- united urge you to do that.
And because it is passover week there is -- Charles today so.
Sorry about that have some -- console yourself.
But how about some power points.
The way that it wasn't the way that it wasn't.
Now look we conventional wisdom as it comes to presidential races as Karl just pointed out.
Is sometimes right and it sometimes wrong but if we think back to 2008.
The first PowerPoint.
Rudy vs Hillary at this point and even much later than this in the 2008 presidential cycle we everybody knew for sure that it would be Rudy Giuliani vs Hillary Clinton guess what.
It was neither was John McCain vs Barack Obama things get weird sometimes the situation changes sometimes as it did in 2008.
People don't live up to their expectations -- was the case with Hillary Clinton here's a second her point worse than weatherman.
-- we are.
That -- -- receives very good about telling you why something happened.
But not as good at telling you what will happen we can guess we can come up with theories based on past political performance but.
When it comes to predicting the future -- were -- -- the weather -- that's that's the gosh darn truth.
And here's the third point irrational actors one of the reasons that we get sucked into this kind of conventional wisdom.
And that people fall for it so often.
Is that we expect and people who are in the political arena and don't spend their time thinking about politics and -- expect rational decisions and predictability that's not how this goes that's not what it's like so.
Don't if Republicans and Democrats alike need to be careful not to be hedging their bets are making their -- -- what the other side's gonna do in 2016 or even in 2014 the way to do it it's just go with the best plan that you got.
And don't worry about who it's going to be.
Seriously so those -- your power points have a great rest of your Wednesday we'll see you back here tomorrow.
Filter by section