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Hi welcome to Defcon three this is KT McFarland and we've got a really serious topic to talk about today.
Which is increasing.
Crisis in the North Korean.
Peninsula on the Korean Peninsula as the United States is sending.
Destroyers to the region as the Chinese are massing on the North Korean border and as soon rhetoric is ratcheting up way up.
So joining me today is is vice -- -- daily.
Who's now with the US naval institute.
And he's the guy who really was responsible in part for making up some of the war plans -- United States had.
In the last say fifteen years I want to ask you -- daily.
You know every year we watch this threat we every spraying it seems -- north Koreans ratchet up a crisis.
The world stops pays attention and we have talks would give the north Koreans what they want the crisis is diffuse.
Every year it really doesn't amount to much other than a lot of scary rhetoric but is this is his second different this year.
-- T first thanks for being haven't beyond.
The what's not different this year is that every year.
There's a US and South Korea exercise.
That is a defensive exercise we announce that we call up -- North Korean -- doing this exercise and what's also not news that every year.
The north Koreans complaint.
Bitterly and amp up the rhetoric.
What's really different this time -- we have a young.
Inexperienced unproven leader whose place even within the North Korean hierarchy is a little bit of a mystery.
And what he's doing is bringing on.
Stimulus that is coming back to back and the countries in the region don't know what to make of it that's what's different.
We strikes me -- different this year is that the leadership a lot of these countries and South Korea Japan.
China even the US secretary of state and defense their all -- to this game too so.
Given the question then becomes what is the -- -- what capabilities to the north Koreans have to really start a conflict.
Well the north Koreans have a very large and capable army over a million men in uniform.
And they also have a very great capability.
For ballistic missiles and so that's their biggest threat that's what tapering.
On the other side of the South Koreans have a capable defense and they have the partnership with us there treaty ally.
We also have some 30000 US personnel stationed on that Korean Peninsula in the south.
And out mostly army and air force and in addition right nearby we have Marines and naval forces that are forward deployed to back them up.
Okay so in other words were at a tripwire if something does happen a -- -- to decide to attack.
We opened the show up anywhere that map that you couldn't see but what it was -- -- people.
And our viewers is what the capabilities are of the North Korean missiles how far can they reach out we know that they can reach South Korea they can reach Japan.
But it to look at the map the Taepodong two missile can probably reach the Hawaiian Islands could reach Canada.
And certainly Alaska.
So what are what are we talking about I mean is this something we're North Korea could attack the United States.
In the next week.
Well not in the next week directly.
But the real threat to us is getting entangled in the short term.
And a large scale conflict right on the peninsula itself and we've been there before.
It's not a pretty picture and it would be all out war.
But in the longer term we have to pay attention to the fact that north Koreans have been working on obtaining nuclear weapons.
And on obtaining the delivery vehicles for those weapons and you party alluded to the Taepodong two.
But in December they did their first successful.
Rocket launch of a missile.
That could reach at least parts of the United States.
And if you marry that up with a nuclear weapon.
You've really got a threat and they've just in February successfully.
-- nuclear test so they haven't married those up yet.
But it's it's in the offing.
Okay so are just say is they really are nuclear weapon they've been big heavy got to make a bomb that got -- -- build an American nuclear weapon they just don't yet have the ability to deliver it very far.
Can't reach a -- I United States with a nuclear weapon bright that they -- chain imply and I think that it's only a matter of time before that happens.
That's correct and that's why those that's why this layered or defense in depth against the missiles is so important.
And it starts right there on the Korean Peninsula with the patriots and got fed batteries are manned by -- US forces there in the army and and the ships offshore.
Can both track and deal with the short to intermediate range ballistic missiles the once they have right now.
But in the longer term it is a threat to the homeland.
And those ships that are there for the homeland defense keys.
Would god do early detection and tracking and link back to the missile defenses in the US and you just saw the president.
And the last ten days.
Ramp up the number of ground based interceptors that'll be deployed in Alaska.
That won't all happen for the next two years.
It'll take two years to play out.
But when it does will be more ready and so it's a serious threat.
Tell you about they've -- naval vessels that can defend against about it -- ballistic missile attack.
How we've been reading that the president is sending some destroyers often are the Korean coast.
-- the secretary of defense assured us that -- North Korea fires.
Missiles at the United States we can shoot them out of the air what does that mean you talk about land based missile defense but his or something -- -- Yes those ships at sea and now you've seen the news reports -- about the two destroyers the guided missile destroyers.
-- in the McCain.
Those are ships that have the aegis weapon system it was designed for a fleet air and missile defense.
But now the US has modified some 26 of those ships.
The destroyers and some cruisers to deal with the ballistic missile threat.
So those ships will be able to detect track and engage.
Short to intermediate range and you should your your viewers should think of it as things less than down.
Four to 5000 kilometers in range.
Those are that's the range from zero to that of of that threat that can be engaged directly from C by those ships.
-- talked about proliferation North Korea is getting nuclear weapons the Japanese have said this week they're reconsidering.
Their military position they've not had.
A large standing military after World War II they're reconsidering that the South Korean have just South Koreans have a hawkish.
New president are they trying to consider they -- pretty sophisticated and capable military but it's not nuclear military.
Is that something that you might -- on the Korean Peninsula.
Yes I think it has all those ramifications.
And as you pointed out earlier.
New governments in Japan.
I'm very a very concerned government South Korea and they should be and even their partner in China is looking at them and saying.
They're not quite so sure what they're gonna -- do next I think it's significant that the Chinese signed up for the latest round of sanctions.
It sends a signal that.
That even China who spend a stalwart partner of North Korea.
Is worried about them worried about what they're neighbors gonna do doesn't want to see an implosion on the peninsula.
So the cliff -- issue is very serious and it also has worldwide implications one last question -- -- worldwide implications means why Iran.
It could mean Iran it could also -- other.
It could it could also -- other partners that we haven't even heard of yet or even non state actors and there's history there.
Where North Korea's both -- a receiver.
And a giver of of advanced technologies.
Well admiral -- de LA it's cheap and today's economic survey US naval institute thank you for telling us about this whole new world that we seem to be entering its a pretty scary one.
And -- -- your time.
Thank you okay and ever allowed an average day I was referring to the Chinese and what is their role -- -- as we have a great comment.
From -- have one of our viewers who says North Korea isn't the problem.
As much as China's support of North Korea.
We're gonna take a break and come back and talk about them further -- with our next -- I welcome back to Defcon three and -- and are proud that we're gonna continue our coverage of the crisis in the in the North Korea.
And in the Korean Peninsula are right -- -- -- joining us from London Greg tell cut.
Greg I don't know if you heard we have vice admiral de -- and he talked about.
The fact the -- -- sent warships and missile defense ships off the Korean.
Coasts and that the Chinese have mobilized on the border what's the latest.
The latest we're we're getting today KJ is this action against this said joint industrial complex.
But just to the north of the DMZ between north and South Korea and that sounds innocuous North Korea's targeting industrial complex that this complex -- the case song complexes that have potent symbol of cooperation between -- the north and the south or was anyway.
There's about 50000.
North Korean workers at this complex and about 900 South Korean managers involves something like a 120 South Korean companies that the total turnover for years two billion dollars in trade so it's very important to both sides so that is why when North Korea announced today that they were banning any South Koreans from entering the complex.
It's a big deal in fact 40500 people were turned away today that there were South Korean managers -- remaining inside the compound -- -- that come in earlier in the week some stay overnight.
At this complex and so the factories that are still continuing to operate but the big concern now is that supplies are being shot off to this as complex and in fact.
This targeting by North Korea of this complex -- at the end of the day her Pyongyang more of our -- I -- told by insiders that.
That Pyongyang -- FB hefty share of the profits from this thing.
They get a lot of money from that and even though the wages being paid this north in the North Korean workers are quite meager.
It's certainly a lot more than they get working at working the fields are we doing other things in North -- that's one thing -- that we're looking at very closely the other thing as you note is a lot of activity by the US military still the announcement coming from the Pentagon may second.
Anti ballistic missile destroyers USS Decatur coming into the region joining the USS John McCain also got to images.
Today the the F 22 stealth fighters.
Leaving a South Korean air base.
They came in a couple days ago sort of show the show the flag and and that's in fact what they were intended to do they're they're heading back now.
Not too far away from the port agreement -- back to -- a US air base in Japan where they will be at the ready during all of this.
Finally I -- we have not heard too much from the young North Korean leader Kim -- won today but yes we've been hearing from China the Foreign Ministry there.
Describing today some of their own diplomatic activities.
The deputy foreign minister of China meeting on Tuesday.
With the ambassador to the US ambassador to North Korea.
Ambassador to South Korea in Beijing and in their words their concerned and telling everybody to remain calm.
And exercise restraint obviously China I think -- key ally to North Korea has a big stake in this whole thing and and probably a big stake in this thing resolving itself peacefully and not.
If a war like manner -- OK let's Greg -- cut from London giving us the look the latest and fact very disheartening news about the Korean Peninsula thanks so much for joining us.
Albert how to turn to Chris reference -- the executive director of the foreign policy initiative.
He's in Washington joins us and Washington.
And it Chris what the reasons I wanted to talk to you is you actually got a little bit of a different take you think that in the middle of all this crisis there might be some opportunities.
-- -- -- Well I think that first whenever we're thinking about the North Korean situation that there's something here that we've seen before this cycle of escalation of issuing belligerent rhetoric and whenever we're focusing strictly on North Korea's military capabilities.
That we have sometimes miss the humanitarian crisis that is North Korea that this is a regime.
That the debate is whether or not they've killed a million or more for a million and lots of its people that has hundreds of thousands and concentration camps.
That there are things that beyond just military threat that opposes.
That we really need to take the opportunity to strengthen our partnerships with our allies and would commend the administration for the initiatives that -- taking right now and in terms of demonstrating force.
That we need to seek opportunities to put pressure on the regime -- will hurt the most this -- -- access the world financial markets.
This will be their ability to -- this applies to that some of its counterparts via Iran Syria.
That there are opportunities here but it requires that we focus not just on the threat they -- but what we can -- back to them.
Yeah Chris -- ask if we get to this point -- we have we the United States has been watching this for the last 1015 years.
North -- had a nuclear weapons program North -- cooperated with Iran North -- cooperated with.
With Iraq North Korea's cooperated with the Pakistan -- -- doctor AQ kind.
We have seen this coming the Bush Administration the Obama administration and here we are to the point.
Of really being on the brink -- potentially some kind of nuclear exchange with North Korea.
Why we got this so long.
Yet it didn't -- the history of diplomacy towards North Korea it is just a history of a litany of failures that there there's.
That the term covered in glory will not be used in this phase.
American diplomatic history.
I think that one thing to keep in mind is that even as you go back to that early ninety's and energy as you come forward.
Throughout North Korea has possessed the capability.
To inflict and unfortunately that very severe blows saying that.
If you go back -- -- years for the artillery capability against the city of Seoul.
If you go back a decade in terms of their medium range ballistic missile capabilities -- chemical weapons.
Against US installations.
And cities in Japan.
Now they're developing the capability to be able to strike the United States our homeland.
That yeah I think that that that lesson here is that you really don't want to be in the position.
Were you're vulnerable or rogue state.
And that's a position that it unfortunately just the geography in the proximity to South Korea which is a vital United States ally.
That they established relatively early on and we've always been playing capture up to that.
And I think that's defined that the history of diplomacy here.
What would you say to people who question what are we -- playing in Korea.
Fifty years six years after the Korean War why do we still have 30000 American troops why are we putting ourselves in in a trip -- In the -- harm's way position should we bring our boys home and let these guys spotted out of themselves.
I don't think that anything could be further from the truth that.
And that this is in this respect the idea that this is in many ways with the world that the United States fought to create.
We have open G-8 economic systems we've just ratified recently a free trade agreement with the South Koreans.
That whenever you look at the technology if you pull out your iPhone -- people out.
Anything there's going to be South Korean technology in South Korean manufacturing as a part of that.
That our economic success depends upon that relationship depends on the relationship we have with Japan depends upon our suppliers and southeast Asia.
That the success that we've seen with the democratization of Korea if they just had a presidential election this is a vibrant democratic country.
And that success economic and democratic has -- based upon our commitment to South Korea.
And that's success fuels our prosperity and prosperity at home.
So the idea that we could somehow walk away from the house and the world not suddenly become much worse in a way that affects us they I think that's utterly false.
About the risk of proliferation.
And that part of the world.
It's and this is the problem -- it's not just that part of the world right to it it's from North Korea.
That we know that ten 2006 that they are collaborating with the Syrians to build a young beyond like nuclear reactor this is their plutonium reactor there essentially building -- carbon copy of that.
In the middle of nowhere and -- -- and in -- valley and it desert -- with a very clear intent of just being a proliferation program.
We know that they've cooperated with the Syrians with the Iranians on the missile programs.
And -- -- there's a troop there's and she appears to be a two way transfer of technology.
It's very difficult to confirm unfortunately these countries don't tell it's exactly what they're planning on doing in the details.
But we know that -- engineers that missile scientist their nuclear scientists.
Collaborate observe each other's tests see -- progress that each -- making.
And ultimately that these two regimes are feeling each other's progress.
And one last question -- China and office -- That there's two parts to China the China house.
An interest in seeing North Korea as a buffer state and that's not going to go away they do not want the United States ally on the Chinese border.
-- when we look at the particular problem that we have right now which is the prospect that there could be.
A spark a small military attack by the north Koreans against the south -- the United States.
I'm just three years ago when the north Koreans did this that they killed fifty sailors Marines and South Korean citizens and a pair of attacks.
The Chinese really -- other way to ignore reviewing the evidence that the north Koreans conducted that.
It's that the Chinese -- criticize that the nuclear tests the long range missile tests if there is a crisis a moment -- it comes to a point we don't know what Chinese are going to do and I find that deeply troubling.
And the terror -- most frightening thing of all as one of the major policy advisors.
To Kim Jung -- seems to be Dennis Rodman his course -- -- basketball but it.
Yeah I was as a fellow Texan I'm a bit ashamed by the -- but.
They're able to -- -- -- -- but there isn't much -- from from a foreign foreign policy initiative in Washington thanks so much for joining us thank you hated.
There -- more about my take on North Korea go to foxnews.com.
I have an opinion piece.
That various options why this time I think the crisis is different in North Korea.
That even -- it's an annual rite of spring to have a crisis on the Korean -- I do worry that this time it's different.
We have a lot of different actors different leaders in each of the countries all of a sudden we've got to North Korean leader who probably shouldn't be allowed to play with matches.
And -- he's about to become the disaster of nuclear weapons and finally.
As both of our guests -- just talked about.
Chris Griffin and admiral daily we have a lot of united states military right in the region so whatever happens could happen in escalate very quickly.
Anyway -- -- take a break and then come back and talk about they.
Pakistan elections and the United States' position in Afghanistan and what happens after we leave.
I welcome back to -- country to hear from you on the North Korean crisis what do you think.
Are the likelihood that we would have this situation escalating the conflict and what should the United States do are there any options so please send us your comments or try to read them at the end of the show.
What I'd like to do now let's turn from one crazy leader in North Korea Kim -- on to another crazy leader in Afghanistan.
And that's -- -- Karzai -- joining us not a crazy guy but a really Smart guys spent a lot of time.
On the ground in Afghanistan mark Jacobson -- from the I'm German Marshall Fund you are between conferences.
Talking about what's gonna happen to Afghanistan after -- -- And what's likely to happen in Pakistan once they have.
Elections next month.
But I want to ask you what are we with Afghanistan.
Is this guy friend is this guy falls.
Is he gonna help us get out or does he expect us to stay there forever mark.
-- thank you -- I think with Karzai you've seen sort of -- A yearning for sovereignty that that he believes and rightfully so reflects the earnings of the Afghan people to finish this war on around.
At the same time my own criticism of Karzai has been.
He's attacking hit the very people the very nations that support him.
In an un diplomatic way in other words there's a war right way to criticize and there's a wrong way to criticize.
And Karzai and fortunately has taken the wrong path over and over again.
And so what are we make of the fact that they Afghans are gonna have an election in 2014.
It's going to be coinciding with our withdrawal.
Is that going to be a fair and free and open election.
But he thank.
The good the good news is no matter what happens.
Karzai is not going to be around.
To bother us as as the head of the Afghan nation and more he's still gonna be very important player.
For 4014 I'm I'm less concerned about the legitimacy -- because I think the Afghans proved.
Certainly 2011 that they know how to find corruption in fact.
That the challenge for the west is going to be.
Insuring that those institutions the independent elections commission.
The electoral complaints commission are allowed to function the way they did previously.
To root out that corruption that that's the important standards so I think we're on the right track so long as Karzai.
And and and to I guess impede.
The independence of those organizations that work back in twenty -- Mark what you're Afghanistan -- can always struck -- is the Afghan leadership.
Government officials seem to think that the United States not only will be there for a long time but -- the United States pocketbook will be open for a long time and yet if you look at that.
You know every public opinion -- in the United States people want us out of Afghanistan yesterday.
So what are the prospects after we do withdraw from Afghanistan.
Right and and this is where I think the administration's done a good job trying to balance.
What it knows is an unpopular war in fact the White House this war's unpopular in the White House is well.
So what they've said to the Afghans is look we will be there for you there will be a strategic partnership.
4014 to point one.
But the Afghans have a role play as well and other words security fine but the Afghans have to help institute.
The proper governance.
The Afghans -- have to help to build the judicial judicial structure that can adjudicate disputes.
The challenge is making sure that there is money.
And I will tell you every time Karzai comes out and says the Americans are colluding with the followed -- the Americans -- wanted I want the special forces out of warcraft.
There's a hue and cry amongst those of us who want to continue to see support because we know.
What is congress gonna think about this they're not gonna continue to provide those funds.
If Karzai continues to dismiss what world everything that that -- doing for.
-- do at Denmark quiet scene -- biting the hand that speeding them.
Karzai's argument is that he must appear.
To the southern posh choose to be independent.
Of the west there's a critique out there and Afghanistan.
In -- and you can understand where this comes from that Karzai is simply a puppet of the west.
Karzai is afraid that if he doesn't challenge especially the United States.
And NATO on everything that happens he will be seen as a puppet.
I happen to think he over -- I happen to think that there is a way for him to show independents.
And to show that the Afghans who were in control.
Because frankly if you if you've been there you know the Afghans are really driving things more so than I ever have in the past but he's just he's just doing this that the tone is wrong.
It's the tone it's the optic -- the language that really can be infuriating.
Back in in Washington here in Washington and of course and London Brussels and Paris.
-- if they that would mean I say slaves you think Karzai's on the next plane or do you think he sticks about for whatever happens next.
I think Karzai sticks it out now I've been oh very openly and optimistic cautious optimist about what's gonna happen and Afghanistan.
So what I think happens is is that actually.
The other the G Hadi is that the northerners.
Need to make sure that -- -- actually truly stepped back a bit allows the next president.
To play a role without -- -- shadow.
Without cars a casting a shadow over every decision that's made that but I think he states.
I think Karzai does genuinely care about the future of his country.
I don't believe he's one of these -- predatory actors it's simply wants to enrich himself he's interest in power wants to bring back the golden age of Afghanistan.
I think like any leader it's going to be hard for him to step back with that will be critical.
In order for Afghanistan to move forward.
In -- one minute we got laughed I'd like to turn to Pakistan they've got elections coming up in May a number of candidates running back -- you come father of the Islamic bomb.
A tennis star who is a -- self proclaimed messiah.
Among and other other candidates who even -- crazier than that.
What do you think's going to happen with the Pakistan election will there be a democratic transfer of power for the first time.
That's the question.
-- -- I happen to think that there will be I'm more concerned about.
The inroads being made by by the three key -- -- -- on the Pakistani televised especially in places like Karachi I mean.
We are now starting to see the same type of frankly -- -- threat to the existence of the Pakistani government.
That we were always concerned about in Kabul.
And I I think that there is going to be a lot more violence in fact you look at what a bad day Afghanistan had today it's nothing compared to the average day in -- -- And that's what concerns me will that peaceful transfer of power matter -- the pakistanis don't get serious about the insurgency.
Okay well it sounds like we're going from one troubled spot to another hour tour around the world thank you so much for joining us with that tour mark Jacobson the German Marshall Fund.
Well you've -- seen -- we've gone from North Korea where it looks like we could potentially be on the verge of conflict may be even nuclear conflict.
All the way to Afghanistan where we've been at war for ten years and seem to have.
No good solution even though we are withdrawing.
Pakistan offering elections -- a self proclaimed tennis star who is a messiah as well as a nuclear weapons scientists.
At all the way back to Washington DC where.
Who knows it isn't much thank you so much for joining us that's Defcon three and if you can't have enough foxnews.com live tune in tomorrow at 11 o'clock.
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