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How real is the north Koreans -- -- and it's a pleasure to be on with you today I think anybody who answers that question with certainty.
Is maybe smoking something because no one knows this regime is shrouded in secrecy we think we -- a handle on.
-- -- even sort of behind.
New leader but the new leader himself is untested and inexperienced.
And although this pattern of behavior recently as part of -- longer -- longer sort of wave of ups and downs.
I'm no one knows but.
We do know they have real military capabilities.
And that includes missiles as well as a very significant.
Sort of broader military force.
And so United States has to take that seriously working very closely with our ally in South Korea.
And our other allies in the region including to.
-- -- -- likely to happen -- in the north Koreans have been beating the drama about a custody the brinksmanship.
-- if you would let look at -- statement that looks like you're about to launch nuclear war against the United States or rather shoot off a missile any minute.
Is that something that's likely to have -- this -- teenager who started beating his chest.
Well I think there is an element of of rhetoric to this -- the rhetoric is at a higher volume that a little more specific than it usually is.
Usually has -- but as I said this is part of a broader pattern.
But I think it's very likely in my own view if I had to speculate.
That they will launch another missile test or maybe another salvo of missiles as a test.
Especially coming close to April 15.
Which is a significant holiday in North Korea they tend to do these things on significant holidays but these are tests of missiles of various ranges one of them is the moves that on missile.
Which is intermediate range I think we need to be prepared for this past but I would hope my hope and my guess is it'll only be -- -- And hopefully we can start to tamp down this sort of cycle of action and reaction.
Ask you about a bigger picture thing when you've -- -- that you you've had a long career at the Defense Department on the National Security Council.
And -- reputation as a guy who thinks big thoughts your strategic thinker.
When you look at the world today and you look at where in the world is going what do you think of a major issues in major strategic threats such -- -- I say is that the world faces in the next decade or so now.
Well thank you for -- that easy question first of all.
But second of all I think there are a number of -- -- there's -- long range challenges that we have to DOS.
I think sort of managing the rise of China as a greater power.
Is obviously a very important challenge that I think if we handle it right it can be done very well and very cooperatively China has a number of its own challenges to deal -- I think the US will have a renewed power base coming out of the next.
Three to five years our economies back.
Energy trends are greatly in our favor so I'm not as worried about China becoming the sole superpower in the US no longer.
I think the US will be the predominant power for the foreseeable future but there are even other challenges in addition to North Korea I think the number one year term challenge.
Is the threat posed by Iran and I think Iran west.
A nuclear weapons capability is a very significant.
Change to the international security order and when we should start taking.
Very seriously in a number of ways beyond the current path.
Okay -- the United States through successor Republican and democratic administrations that Clinton administration Bush Administration Obama administration.
Has said -- both North Korea and Iran you know -- you're not going to be allowed to be nuclear weapons state and yet if you look at North Korea regarding tested nuclear weapons.
What is the take away that Iran says it best about their own the you know the ability of their own nuclear weapons program to go forward and the inability of the rest of the world to stop them.
I agree with the UN and fortune and I'm in writing you can Google -- I've said that Iran is using North Korean tactics which is over the years sort of played for time negotiate.
Just keep playing for time to develop your own capabilities that you're focusing on.
And unfortunately I think this is the path.
That we are on although I think we should push very hard diplomatically continued to.
In the occurred again last week.
But one has to be somewhat pessimistic.
And so what I think we need to start preparing also for that world for the horrible eventuality that a Iran ultimately does.
Succeed in this or we needed to make the decisions about.
Whether to use military force to prevent it or to delay.
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