North Korea proves benefits of missile defense, US confronts North Korea as defense cuts loom and a psychological portrait of Russia's President
Apr 11, 2013
Fiona Hill, Doug Lamborn, Barry Pavel
North Korea proves benefits of missile defense, US confronts North Korea as defense cuts loom and a psychological portrait of Russia's President
Apr 11, 2013
Fiona Hill, Doug Lamborn, Barry Pavel
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Welcome to Defcon three and KT McFarland and we are on the verge.
Of another crisis with North Korea but before we get to North Korea we want to talk about US Russian relations.
And United States' missile defense programs.
Joining me -- -- Fiona hill she's at the Brookings institute and she's written a really provocative book about Putin who is.
Once and future president of Russia now a lot of people have talked about couldn't.
As a sort of enigmatic character came out of the KGB is his psychology different what makes him tick what have you concluded in your book.
Well with concrete action to KGB was in -- significant and -- in psychology.
Because he has this ecology of an operative -- spent some title of the book -- mr.
Putin operative in the Kremlin.
And you -- thinks like everything is an operation so one he's dealing with -- says for example.
He looks leaders in the eyes -- and we remember about feminists line from President Bush.
When push ups and -- couldn't -- but couldn't just thought he -- into people's lives and tries to figure out how we might be able to attend them in the direction that he wants them to go ahead.
So everything that it looks awesome domestic affairs and also on the -- policy level.
Is done through the prism of individuals didn't test so much about the big dynamics of at a going on and societies.
Because -- -- about how we -- millions of people.
Minute and let them -- its best to demobilize -- directions that's he wants them and hasn't been successful and he's been successful on the Russian domestic front he's actually been a very.
Popular political -- For the whole period that he's been president twice and prime minister he's -- into some trouble over the last -- -- and a half when he decided it was gonna come back.
As you alluded to to the presidency and take it back again for another two -- And it's nonsense Connie Campbell of they Russian population is still going to be on the ball -- -- having him for the next twelve Diaz is that president.
What hill mall from it's still very active.
Sixty year old to a 72 year olds and up -- in mall then and sit up demand of the previous Russian and Soviet leaders as we know who.
Pretty much hung on until that insanity united and that's what could months ago but -- could be what he's heading.
Right now yeah.
Has always been fascinated -- -- previous Russian leaders as you said their hours -- seven these their wives had dowdy clothes.
-- they really weren't sort of superstars.
Is a guy who -- bare backside in the -- and -- in Siberian lakes he started it's almost like a cult of personality.
How has that gone over with the Russian people what's been very popular domestically it's -- become something of a subject says.
-- -- humor on the Internet and elsewhere outs in the west there's so many web sites devoted to mr.
Putin in the past somebody different way isn't.
In the book we pick up on these -- personalities of this place celebrity actions taken.
And skittish he does this deliberately.
And he -- is because he knows that there is the coast of the celebrity politician of the celebrity.
He's up to the United States and seen how the -- -- the clintons.
Now the Obama -- hand -- of meld its.
Not celebrity -- artifacts and into politics and he's doing -- in a way that I actually I think few of the politicians do it's not just out that kissing babies are beating Philly cheese steaks.
Among them on his dressed up.
And -- as you said he's.
He's back tested and touching and done he's swimming inside -- a disease tranquilizing tightest.
He's just an extended it to another level it makes it seem -- -- not like he's the most effective personality in this Russian.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Second look at his dissertation where he talked about and he was writing in the seventy's plan Russia and Soviet Union -- was over Russia was on its knees.
And he talked about -- re claiming it's great position by -- in its natural resources oil.
Natural gas and he's really follow that playbook -- happening.
You can't just say I you're what has -- -- -- from on its knees to an economic probably the biggest things he's.
General being president is obviously something that -- grappling with right now was he paid off Russia's debts.
Zone and let Soviet period one of the things that brought down the Soviet Union it wasn't to stall walls and -- -- It was just the colossal debt of the -- unit -- message because -- and gas prices were so low.
What couldn't did was he when he came into the presidency was extremely lucky because as we know -- because we have to keep -- -- that it the other gas pump oil prices up tough calls.
And also natural -- much is the biggest stuff producer of not so gusts globally.
A solar PV benefited from this but he was very -- he paid off the debts he didn't go -- squander the wind farm like Hugo Chavez did in Venezuelan.
-- -- disease -- built up huge currency reserves.
-- was bunker twenty -- and it now has one of the largest sovereign wealth funds in the world so it's -- to -- net.
Singular success of his possibly -- -- -- right that's been one of the sequence.
That is -- I was inside Russia.
Tell me about the Chinese Russian relationship that for years so -- -- during the Cold War with Russia.
China the United States Henry Kissinger my old boss played them all off against each other.
But it now looks like there may be a Chinese Russian rapprochement.
The new Chinese president she's in pain has just gone the Moscow that was his first.
Foreign trip what's the symbolism there.
Well I was pretty significant and actually it's interesting you mentioned Henry Kissinger because Henry Kissinger is one of these individuals who Pitt has really -- to cultivates.
And he may even have -- Henry Kissinger for some advice on dealing with China who knows because because we don't know what the talk about when the next.
But -- is very proud of the fact that he has transformed the Russia China relationship in 1960 at the shifting it to each of us and across the ball out of my dissertation on what I -- on the -- too well and since then about Venus they've relationship was quite rocking.
A -- couldn't -- to polish defense than it did it cuts against -- says the -- -- bulletin agreement with China so that one disputing this touching an involvement.
Now the relationship has not all gone -- since then that being constantly grappling with trying to.
Get an agreement on -- -- supplies to China the Chinese would like a low price of -- would like to sell as much to them as possible.
-- of these things have been difficult -- paying signed a whole host of other agreements with -- when he was in on a couple of weeks ago.
It's not -- -- kid and those are going to play out because this is just another -- a whole series.
But over the long -- and the -- are really hoping that stable -- success by association with China and the Russians Far East.
It's the most vulnerable parts of us in -- -- very small population miles and miles from Moscow several time zones away.
I'm pretty much doesn't have a lot going on -- from not so recent losses.
That hosted the ad tech summits.
But -- was more of an anomaly and they know that they haven't -- it got a lot of traction.
And East Asia and who's the big powers China.
And so posit this is trying to associate themselves with China a positive way for some long term benefits but it's also like everyone else a degree -- CF.
They -- about -- send that over time China might stop looking back across thought all the intelligence and half -- to -- out touching.
And it shattered many people on there -- a lot of it certainly doesn't help him Russian -- exactly down the line.
So there's and is it looks of Fox's led them right now the relationship seems grant but -- a lot of options are worried that just like everyone else and have a problem do you want.
Things that they struck me is that apparently the relationship between President Obama where we famously said at the beginning of the Obama administration going to have a reset.
The relations with Russia and yet reports say that whenever the two of them meet couldn't lectures Obama.
And that reset hasn't gone very -- can you talk -- about the relationship between the United States and Russia and -- is it going.
Well President Obama -- in -- giving this rob strange arrangement that Putin house.
With Dmitry Medvedev there was a younger associates of his that this tons.
-- start to.
When Medvedev was actually presents the Foley -- while Clinton is the prime minister.
And enough payment of costs as presidents Obama met mostly with me to Medvedev -- was a much walnut Fuzzy yes.
No it's not pleasant person find -- it's to meet list.
Medvedev -- was really should meet with the heads of states.
So Obama had very little contact with pitch in the status and is up 62 on the meetings that he did talk with him -- took the opportunity to have rocked him.
On all of -- sayings that the United States have done to Russia.
So couldn't is now the president again president Obama's gonna have to meet with him this is now of the protocol.
There visits and meetings coming up very softly.
And it's going to be at tricky relationship to manage Clinton is not -- -- -- on me.
On though President Obama does sound you know that -- can I expect to be Tom people -- was not someone is easily Toms is on mentions he's the kind of person you all the -- to recruit people.
So that's going to be a difficult type of relationships against officers.
The best area well we've got some success of putting a relationship -- -- -- -- -- -- can't -- We didn't get the new start agreement cost.
Giving them -- -- presidency.
I think one of the big things on the agendas to see how -- can -- -- Which is being -- and they instead of old Russian US Soviet US relations Spock on trucks -- -- something that can be done that.
But beyond that his trip quite tricky to figure out what we can do NASCAR fans -- -- -- horror now.
Okay -- his -- for giving us your time -- and -- Brookings Institution and hurt.
Book is called -- operative -- -- -- -- thank you so much and I -- a lottery while we got one great comment.
From out of our viewers and it's the point of this whole show is that people could be watching on their computers are on their blackberries and they can join the conversation.
So one of our -- -- -- says how would I describe US Russian relations.
Better than what it was well at least there's no danger of events of Dr.
Strangelove happening now I've suffered by mr.
Clinton is not -- -- -- is not done.
Besides love says state June saying thank you so much we're gonna take.
A break and I come back and talk about missile defense with a guy in the United States House of Representatives and Johnson.
Hi welcome back to death country will turn our -- out of missile defense and the crisis looming crisis in North Korea.
Back -- a -- I was very impressed with -- I met him a few weeks ago congressman Doug glamour and House of Representatives Republican.
And he's in charge of the sub committees -- chairman of the subcommittee on.
Missile defense strategic issues all -- up so thank you so much for joining us.
Did you speak to get you show up on the committee I wish I ran it but I'm I'm a member of the city of long standing.
Well yeah I'll be running that are far too long.
Let me out you article about bad about strategic missile defense and you talked about president Reagan's call thirty years ago.
The Star Wars system strategic defense where Reagan challenged the scientific community.
To come up with missile defense now after the fall of the Soviet Union and of the Cold War we are kind of lost track of the need for missile defense.
But you -- the argument that is more important now than ever explain.
Absolutely KT will look at North Korea we willing to talk for a moment about Iran North Korea if you go on to YouTube you can find.
Videos that they have posted showing the destruction of American cities.
By their nuclear weapons.
This is something that they would like to do to our country.
They've they've said it out loud they put on YouTube videos.
We have to be able to protect against a rogue country like North Korea also North Korea wants to proliferate.
To countries like Iraq.
Whether it's a -- country or even an accidental launch from a near pier.
And Russia China.
We have to be able to be able to stop an incoming nuclear missile coming to our West Coast.
And I would say KT we need to do more on the East Coast that is not protected like it should be.
Okay are we out we all watched -- some of us watched yesterday wearing out admiral Locklear talked about what would happen if North Korea this week.
Launches a missile test would we shoot it down would we not he seemed to say we would not necessarily shoot it down unless that threatened.
Our allies or our own forces in the region what do you think.
If it's gonna go into the sea and just disappear we don't want to waste one of our expensive interceptors.
On something that's not a threat we have the capability KT with our.
To be able to tell -- that missile is gonna go 201 of our allies.
Our our troops overseas or the US mainland or Hawaii year -- we can tell very quickly after take off.
Where that missile is gonna end up so.
If it's gonna go off in the ocean we'll just let it go and won't waste our.
Time on it.
And then talk to me to about the president's -- submitted his budget to Capitol Hill and one of the things.
On that budget is the missile defense program what does he asked us for.
The trouble with the budget is that he wants to cut half a billion dollars.
And in the four years he's been in office he's already cut six billion from where we would have been otherwise so that's six and a half billion dollars KT.
That we are missing from.
Research and development or deployment of our missile defense assets.
With North Korea and Iran.
Making the kinds of threats and trying to build the capability that they're building why in the world would we cut missile defense at this point in time.
The world is not getting safer we have to keep our qualitative.
Technological advantage over other countries.
Which is the best thing we have going force you mentioned.
-- earlier about Iran and Iran's pursuit of nuclear reference.
How would a missile defense system on the East Coast of the United States help -- isn't at all about Iran reaching the Middle East and reaching Europe.
Well the first -- defense against Iran yes would be to protect our allies and our troops.
Our military assets in the Middle East.
By an aegis destroyer.
Based in the Mediterranean let's say or by helping art is really allies.
With their radar and interceptor capabilities we have great sharing.
Programs where we share technology with each other that's the first -- defense.
But Iran -- made no secret of the fact that they want to have an Intercontinental ballistic missile capability.
When they talk about putting a monkey in this space.
That's really just a disguised plan to have Intercontinental ballistic missiles that would reach.
A place like the USA.
So we want to be able to have.
Interceptors in place to stop Iran launching over Europe into the US.
Because that's something in a few years they would like to be able to do.
You don't know -- and has joined with the number of former secretaries of state secretary of state shawls Kissinger.
Others talking about the desire or ability of having a world without nuclear weapons and how would the United States go about leading this push to really have nuclear disarmament.
Can you comment on whether that's a reasonable -- leave -- are hopeful thing that we might be able to do in the coming years.
KT that is dangerously.
88 at nine countries in this world that have nuclear arsenals.
And -- including the US.
The only one of these nine countries that is not increasing the quantity and quality of its nuclear arms.
Is the United States all of the others are enhancing their stockpiles either qualitatively or quantitative -- And then we have countries like North Korea and Iran that are trying to.
When the president says that our moral example will persuade other countries.
That has been demonstrated to be a failure no one is following the US lead and -- -- seeing.
Their nuclear stockpiles who already have a nuclear stockpile that's dangerously naive.
OK well thank you very much for joining us congressman Doug -- aren't Republican Colorado and on the house armed services committee.
Thanks we'll talk with we'll talk with you -- -- -- and that we well that thank you so much talent return back to Washington DC where I've got a guest.
Eric how hole he has the director of the brands aircraft's center for international security at the Atlantic Council.
Atlantic Council by the way was in the news a number of weeks ago because.
The current secretary of defense a Chuck -- was chairman of the Atlantic Council and -- Kabul is one of the people in charge of one of the top issues there which is not only emerging threats.
But special operations and and missile defense so I'm really glad you could join us today and talk to us about the North Korean threat that.
If you pick up an issue think well we're about to go out potentially to have a conflict with North Korea how real what is the North Korean threat.
-- -- and it's a pleasure to be on with you today I think anybody who answers that question with certainty.
Is maybe smoking something because no one knows this regime is shrouded in secrecy we think we had a handle on.
-- -- even sort of behind.
New leader but the new leader himself is untested and inexperienced.
And although this pattern of behavior recently as part of -- longer tranda longer sort of wave of ups and downs.
I'm no one knows but.
We do know they have real military capabilities.
And that includes missiles as well as a very significant.
Sort of broader military force.
And so United States has to take that seriously working very closely with our ally in South Korea.
And our other allies in the region including.
Hand a bit less likely to happen I -- the north Koreans have been beating the drama about custody the brinksmanship.
And if you wouldn't let look at fair statement that looks like they're about to launch nuclear war against the United States are about to shoot off a missile any minute.
Is that something that's likely to have -- this -- teenager -- sort of beating his chest.
Well I think there is an element of of rhetoric to this Tom if the rhetoric is at a higher volume and a little more specific than it usually is.
Usually has -- but as I said this is part of a broader pattern.
But I think it's very likely in my own view if I had to speculate.
That they will launch another missile test or maybe another salvo of missiles as a test especially coming close to April 15.
Which is a significant holiday in North Korea they tend to do these things on significant holidays but these are tests of missiles of various ranges one of them is the -- Saddam missile.
Which is intermediate range I think we need to be prepared for this past but I would hope my hope and my guest says it'll only be a test.
And hopefully we can start to tamp down this sort of cycle of action and reaction.
Yes she did about a bigger picture thing when you've -- -- that you you've had a long career at the Defense Department on the National Security Council.
And your reputation as a guy who thinks big thoughts your strategic thinker.
When you look at the world today and you look at where the world is going what do you think are the major issues in major strategic threats such as -- and I says that the world faces in the next decade or so now.
Well thank you for -- that easy question first -- -- But second of all I think there are a number of talent is there's some long range challenges that we have to deal west.
I think sort of managing the rise of China as a greater power.
Is obviously a very important challenge that I think if we handle it right it can be done very well and very cooperatively China has a number of its own challenges to deal -- I think the US will have a renewed power base coming out of the next.
Three to five years our economies back.
Energy trends are greatly in our favor so I'm not as worried about China becoming the sole superpower in the US no longer.
I think the US will be the predominant power for the foreseeable future but there are even other challenges in addition to North Korea I think the number one -- term challenge.
Is the threat posed by Iran and I think Iran west.
A nuclear weapons capability is a very significant.
Change to the international security order and when we should start taking.
Very seriously in a number of ways beyond the current path.
Okay well the United States through successor Republican and democratic administrations that Clinton administration Bush Administration Obama administration.
Has said -- both North Korea and Iran you know looks you're not going to be allowed to be nuclear weapons state and yet if you look at North Korea -- -- tested nuclear weapons.
What is the take away that Iran -- -- that's about their own you know the ability of their own nuclear weapons program to go forward and the inability of the rest of the world to stop them.
I agree with the UN and fortune I'm in writing you can Google me I've said that Iran is using North Korean tactics which is over the years sort of played for time negotiate.
Just keep playing for time to develop your own capabilities that you're focusing on.
And unfortunately I think this is the path.
That we are on although I think we should push very hard diplomatically continue to.
In the occurred again last week.
But one has to be somewhat pessimistic.
And so what I think we need to start preparing also for that world for the horrible eventuality that -- Iran ultimately does.
Succeed in this or we needed to make the decisions about.
Whether to use military force to prevent it or to delight it.
All right well what about Iran getting nuclear weapons -- saudis authorities said they want nuclear weapons.
You've got to assume Turkey are rising power in the region may want to sound nuclear weapons so it's not just Iran might get nuclear weapons it -- their whole region might be nuclear -- What do we do about that we can make speeches bad.
Do we have a military engagement to stop that do we try to contain it.
Do we build up missile defense what what should the United States' reaction be from our perspective on our security.
I think -- -- on all of the -- -- the -- issues I think we need to work very closely and even more closely with our allies in the region and outside the region and that is.
Countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Need to work very closely with -- -- we need to start to bring NATO more into this and I'm talking vigorous.
Leadership by the United States and diplomacy.
To start to strengthen our political military consultations.
As well as strengthen our military posture both in the gulf as well as in them in the areas around the gulf that can be brought to bear.
This is a very serious problem you raise the right issues and that is secondary and tertiary proliferation.
That might occur if it becomes clear that Iran has nuclear weapons.
I think the case where you have Iran.
Israel and Saudi Arabia with -- always nuclear weapons within five to twelve minute.
Flight times from each other that's unprecedented.
It's very unstable it's a dis equilibrium.
And -- to do whatever we -- to try to prevent that from.
Happening go back to Asia for -- at their Merry Christmas on everybody's mind if I have you back next week.
After a potentially a North Korean test where is the world has that escalated into some kind of a conflict involving the United States.
Or is it gonna and that being just like every other springtime North Korean crisis.
That everybody gets nervous but then it goes away and tell the next year what do you think.
Well you're asking me to predict the unpredictable I'll do it nonetheless because I'm not that Smart.
-- but I think that there would be multiple salvo missile test and I hope and pray that it doesn't hurt anybody or follow on anybody's territory.
Or otherwise go awry and kill people in that in countries in allies.
And so if that if it if if it if all goes as before I think -- right it'll be another spring time.
Sort of missile display.
-- I fear that if it does end up doing such damage then we will have to react and then it becomes much more unpredictable so in a strange way.
We hope that these missile tests are not causing any undo damage and we can return to some sense of normalcy hopefully.
If not we have a problem.
OK well thank you very much -- very -- all of the Atlantic Council thanks for joining us.
Thank you very much.
Well I think you all have heard from a number of people have said basically stay tuned with the North Korean crisis we don't know what's going to happen in the next several days it could be something really tragic and it could be just another.
Oh -- on another North Korean spring time crisis see you again same time next year.
I'm going to be on the channel Fox News Channel and about twenty minutes -- five minutes talking to Megyn Kelly about my take panel this please tune in them.
And definitely tune in tomorrow morning at 11 o'clock eastern to -- whatever the latest is in the world not just let.
Domestic issues but also -- in our latest on the North Korean crisis -- Mack Brown thanks for joining us.
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