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I -- happy to welcome Neil Ferguson his new book is called the great degeneration.
Doug Ferguson is he largely -- professor of history at Harvard.
The other also of other war of the world twentieth century conflict and the descent of the west.
And the ascent of money a financial history of the world human -- energy than they told you that this surprises is a more negative tone to it and Samir previous.
Work I you don't see it that way -- -- it's actually this book is quite positive in the sense that it says here are problems.
And we can fix them and here's what we need to do.
The difference if you go back through the -- of the work I've done since I came to the United States.
Not long after nine -- It's essentially been concerned with the problems -- all of the west's.
I didn't I did the piece book Cold War of the -- Twentieth century conflict in the sense of the west in my book an American impart Ko losses was entitled the -- isn't full of America's them par -- I don't know that I radically changed and changed my argument here but this develops some of the earlier arguments -- an -- some remedies when the time to great.
It's a bit of play on words -- my concern about much of Ford is wrong with our democracy has to do with what it implies for the future for future generations.
And I think there's a huge imbalance that has emerged partly because of the way that our entitlement system works and our fiscal system.
Which implies huge burdens on on our kids our grandchildren and and and not since their prospects are.
Are a lot less rosy and and that's the baby boomers pay off you know they've kind of -- launch launch dead behind the and -- we have with the aging baby boomer generation which is a very large demographic.
And Medicare and Medicaid is there's security all of which have to be paid out.
It hurts a next generation but good nevertheless you pay into the system -- the -- entitlements but.
She Medicare Social Security aren't -- things we -- and if we do indeed once for an employment but said the liabilities of these systems are wildly under funded I mean that there's no way.
On current rates that we can.
Possibly fund these programs sent one of two things has to happen.
From the point of view of the next generation -- either they're gonna pay way higher taxes in the course of their lives than and we go east to.
Or these entitlements we'll have to be talks dramatically -- -- country that does it better.
Yeah -- facts if -- just asking the question about well first it's let's just take us take the assumption that you think well first it's a good idea.
The Canadian system as we sold couldn't.
You know if it if you published a balance sheet of the United States federal government would be pretty horrific site.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- This single pair method or for example the socialist method in Britain will certainly keep your costs under control -- but that is not what I'm recommending my argument is.
United States is different -- -- supposed to have a welfare state that's not what was set up to do and we should not go down that route indeed one of the strongest arguments I make in the book is that we have to be way out of the European causing all may be Canadian arising.
An American system that previously was distinct because it relied much more one individual self help them on government that had -- we get back to that level of distinction to which you referred to make us the country we -- to be this is a huge challenge that faces someone like say poll Ron.
How do you reform the system entitlements without losing because you seem to be taking money away from people and offering nothing.
Except some future -- -- -- on his entitlement it's very hard to remove what exactly we've already reached the point where it's politically -- just recording that's one of the lessons of the last election.
So we have to recast the debate and gets away from a zero sum game.
In which there is only the tossing and entitlements to argue about it.
-- -- think that it would be really small for conservatives to change the subject.
And argue about social mobility growth job creation getting rid of the regulations that choking off.
And and she is an important point reform the way the -- current for a public finances so that it's clear just -- -- really huge the deficit is because right now the official figures understate the problem that's it and let people hear the word deficit and they say well it really doesn't meant literally affect me and we've always had a deficit deficit spending -- some people is good.
So you've got that whole argument -- well ultimately I think we've -- boxed into a very sterile debate between austerity and stimulus which is I think has been so success Leo and by liberals.
In the media that it's it's a losing it's a losing game.
I think it's the wrong thing to argue about the issue here is about the long term sustainability of the system that has massive off balance -- On funded by the loses its excellent Enron style organization that we -- the federal level.
-- what does that mean for our kids you know we we say we care about the future of the next generation he sometimes get people saying that.
You know I care about my grandkids so I want a clean environment a cable there are a lot of things that we need to care about for grandchildren we know re doing in practice to -- gonna come in and cut his full Ryan said he would do and I think certainly the Romney campaign.
Didn't present -- put its best foot forward.
What argument can you make is a conservative to say here's a better way and -- that you might actually get some on the other side of pay attention and the -- meet someplace in the middle.
I think you first -- all need to talk.
A buyer tax reform I think there is in fact a bipartisan consensus than nine million pages.
Tax code might be a little bit excessive by a million words such signal pages and -- about.
We can reform taxes so we could simplify the tax system there's no question about that.
I wish he would stop talking about -- -- doing it so that's number one.
Number two I think we still have to do meaningful Health Care Reform.
There is a meaningful Health Care Reform that does not involved turning us into Canada or the United Kingdom and that require -- something much more than we've seen so fall.
Not that it's something that that simple Ron and others have argued for but I think it needs to be seen as -- of a speak bang package of radical reforms to restructure the revenue side.
And the spending side here I'm in the system -- sac religious and Grover Norquist gonna kill me.
But that's OK we are -- relatively need some additional source of federal revenue are experiencing this for years and years and years some kind of tax -- hunting him.
But -- on consumption would be desirable.
Please don't talk about a value added tax that's a bad idea but having some additional source of of of its federal -- -- -- an adult -- taxes it's been present.
I think I think the -- sex is a bridge too far I think you can achieve a simple tax system may -- with a two to band income tax but the main thing is to simplify.
Right now -- we have insane complexity and the deep poverty traps the number risen the disincentives to work that already attracting people and dependency.
These things can be -- -- and the message similar because that.
-- problems can be sold by stimulus they have to be sold but the kind of radical reform that we saw in the 1980s in Britain and in the United States here.
Here's an interesting point Alan there's only been one period since the war.
When the -- -- regulation declined.
When the size of the federal register actually went down and instead of all those regulations struck -- that was under Ronald Reagan and guess what we -- regulation by 30% and the economy grew by 30% in real terms but so -- -- didn't Reagan leave us with the more deficits we never had prior to Ronald Reagan actually know.
The deficits of the 1980s have been wildly exaggerated arm of the -- time talking about it as it was -- -- the world but it -- like more than we ever had up until that point in peacetime.
Probably a bit compared with wartime deficits it was nothing and that we were fighting the -- cold the Cold War if you remember in the 1980s and much of the deficit spending -- -- was focused on winning that war which let me remind -- we did.
So I think Reagan can be accused of reckless deficit financed.
He can be accused if she wanted to accuse him all of -- -- of radical reform.
Market reforms that galvanize the economy and we we can recapture -- but we have we have spending great to have tax rates now that are not much more than they weren't at all during the Reagan years so it's always a simple either we -- the become -- heart attacks.
I welfare economy.
We could on the European -- all we have to figure out how to bring the entitlements on the control.
The most important way to do it seems to me is actually to achieve rapid growth from the private sector.
Get away from a zero sum game in which all we have to do is talk about what we're gonna -- Let's talk about the jobs are gonna create let's talk about ways in which were gonna make government less -- have you create them -- -- preserve them.
This is where I talk a lot in the book about regulation and the rural small most jobs get created by -- small businesses not by the joint corporations it's it's the little guy who grows his business and -- new people.
Right now if you're a small businessmen in the US and I know this from personal experience you on to charge from expanding by.
A war of regulation a jungle of red tape.
I think does allow all the we could do to encourage small businesses to grow display making it a little bit more friendly as an environment you know.
When you look at the friendliness to business.
-- for which the United States used to be famous.
Is no longer -- it might possibly still be true in Texas may be in Utah but.
I've just been an Illinois I mean that is as unfriendly is it it is -- is -- -- well.
I think is a federal and a state problem.
The fact that we have federal system allows us to see where things are going well and -- going -- -- pops this country not I'm not just because of energy that going well.
In states like -- because there well rom that Dennis high taxes they have light regulation business is one -- -- there.
This is also -- federal -- look unit every yet 63 federal departments agencies and commissions are shooting between the about 3000 to 4000.
New regulations -- -- The number of statutes to come out of congress on the -- gone from twenty to one.
That's -- of regulation is it's killing jobs.
Something you can justify.
But some of it just makes no sense and frankly it is easier these days to set up business in a phone call London than it is to do it in New York Boston and that can be right -- -- -- doctor Neil Ferguson his new book is called the great degeneration it seems that not matter whether Republican or Democrat in office.
To some of these regulations have been in play.
Since long before the current administration so we do you go politically this is no idea this is why seeing the prison Ronald Reagan because that the worst presidencies regulation if you if you go back was probably Nixon's.
I mean Nixon was kind of wage labor deal liberalism -- absolutely yeah but but most administrations Republican or Democrat with the exception of Reagan.
Allowed this regular -- state to just keep growing.
And I think that's something that we can we need to turn brought a -- of regardless of our party's affiliation by the way I think this is summing.
Which any reasonable Democrat who wants to see small business -- can can support.
Nobody should be in favor of crony capitalism no Republican no concern to should be celebrating too big to fail institutions that have their snouts in the federal government's -- We are coming from a partisan perspective or so literally about -- other conservative ideologue I I think I'm I'm a resistor subs but in American substance of the means -- -- different comments and -- and not social liberal.
And so probably I would not be terribly welcome and some -- circles.
My view is.
You know heck these pompous and differences these labels -- helpless sold the kind of problems I'm talking about which really are problems that should concern is all Republicans and Democrats alike.
The but it's -- -- great degeneration Neil Ferguson that's his latest book -- institutions decay in economies die.
Thank you very much differently and her you give -- lots of food for thought thank you don't take your time my pleasure.
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