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It was a factor microphones Alex and arrest that he is immigration policy analyst at the Cato institute's.
Center for global liberty and prosperity.
Alex thank you -- when I appreciate -- very much.
Thank you for having -- -- of course has done some great work.
I in my view unlike what heritage of the country I know the issue.
Of immigration and what -- of how it'll affect the economy you know Gary Johnson was here the other night Libertarian Party candidate for president -- tend to look at things and of course cost benefit analysis.
And I would think that the people who claim they are budget deficit to budget hawks budget deficit -- I should say.
If fiscal conservatives.
Would look at the immigration issue and say you know there's a reason there -- be positive they have.
To need to normalize those in the country without documents and to welcome them here and yet that's not what's going off.
No -- absolutely not what's going on and it's really not mean I'm and we have a way to increase the -- of GDP.
In the very near future by increasing immigration.
And I legalizing the people who are here right now which will increase tax revenues in the future without -- tax rates.
And we have an -- some of the people who claim to be fiscal conservatives you just don't seem to understand that.
So -- you've done some studies and explain to me nevertheless dynamic and then the more dynamic -- What's the difference between those two.
Soviet collapse dynamic study it doesn't need to -- somebody he'd be Alec national budget office -- the last dynamic studied it or normal study where they assume.
But besides that -- economy doesn't change very much by increasing immigration there's been some changes are not that much and they assume that over twenty year period.
As a result of having more workers and more people here in the United States more consumers in the -- that.
Men not additional taxes that would be paid will reduce the deficit by 900 billion dollars over the next twenty year.
Which is a quiet not quite a bit with family is very nervous not a whole lot you can do that doesn't involve drastic reform of the tax code -- government spending.
Take it you just such a positive result like back.
What about the -- and what how is a more dynamic study done it's different.
While the -- what date it is and I'll use any current term real quick but debuted something called -- deepest solo home you can't -- model and they assume that.
After there are more people here and people build more machine to facilitate -- build more factory it's their product.
-- talking a lot of assumptions it would be less we don't know if they'll all come true this is this is best case scenario.
I diablo the third more like a mid ground burial so they take a look at what happened in the past with immigration.
And how that has boosted savings in the United States and indicate that going forward and that sort of -- middle number.
And make some assumptions I'm not the one thing about -- of -- -- -- -- assumptions you know we're trying to predict it'll happen and it's complicated.
But they make that assumption that somebody basic assumptions going forward.
And if I'm not because of increase savings and productivity in because you're not immigrants working together with Americans that are different skill.
You get a one point two trillion dollar decrease.
And deficits over the next twenty years.
What kind of study what kind of work it's been done on the issue of whether.
People documented or not will take jobs away from Americans.
-- either displace them or take jobs Americans would otherwise get.
There's a lot of work from that and pretty much what the entire academic finding is that immigrants do not displace Americans from jobs and win.
That -- -- does not they're very small and it's very localized and the reason why that is because immigrants.
Are different skills -- the vast majority of Americans -- means.
To explain job displacement you have to assume that the person coming in in this place and you has roughly the same skills and -- -- inability.
I'm if you were to have an immigrant to come and extended -- -- -- the radio talk show host kidnappers and we need to speak English you -- you have to be familiar with the American political -- There and a lot of people happy if they -- -- me believe me I can't express and I believe.
I paid the same situation at my job to -- -- -- -- let me ask you Alex now and and I wonder how much did you name right now arrest them.
-- wrapped up -- Jim Kelly -- and I'm just curious.
-- -- -- -- -- A very interesting that you never gets an utterance and unusual and the -- is immigration policy analyst at the Cato institute's center for global liberty and prosperity.
The other issue is that you have part of the they're now amending the bill to do things to enhance border security.
In a way that may not really enhanced border security and again run up deficits.
Absolutely I mean it's called the -- amendment that they're -- co -- amendments.
And what this thing -- your deal with -- -- increase the number of border security agent by 20000 essentially doubling that he grabbed 700 more miles of border fence.
He also are hundreds of different towers -- camera systems all the other stuff.
-- a called the last five billion dollars a year going forward total confidence.
And that is just you know your typical sort of big government program or are measuring.
Border security by inputs rather than output instead of measuring.
Why they all make -- system that decreases the number of people who come across that we can actually measure actually just throwing money.
Growing wall because it feels good -- -- stuff who has Anderson give me eleven foot fence to give you thirteen or twelve foot the -- -- you know I had not just that the -- dig under the go around that don't fly and they'll they'll say torpedo -- do all -- system.
Didn't didn't -- discovered that basically that would reduce immigration undocumented 25%.
And that's that's not something this leaves that right.
A Dark -- that's why not -- that -- that I mean it's wanna hear it -- 125%.
Over the the next fifteen.
A year that was a CBO number it's it's yeah ultimately beyond earth.
I don't mean to take credit for our what the DBO did -- content but I know I'm not and that's.
More than any other plan proposed by any Republican or -- Democrat in terms of its attractiveness.
Right but 25 maybe but we know it was with what they want to do -- reduce immigration when he -- I thought it was by building a fence or.
Or -- I mean they have -- -- is what what Republicans want to do is either build offense or an end to border security.
At the cost you mentioned isn't our reduces.
People coming in.
Not that bad does part of -- but the other thing -- you create a guest worker visa program that channeled a lot of these would be illegal immigrants into the -- market.
And then they go into a circular flow through eventually go back to the country where they came from -- he'd be a model assumed that some of those people -- overstated or be either as.
And later illegally as a result of that -- By you know you -- -- -- -- -- -- the easiest way to decrease illegal immigration is to make it lawful and first place.
Yeah well that's.
Yes sure I -- you make it it's a long really closely to people are breaking the law anymore by the -- even and as it's not a felony it's not even a misdemeanor and there's an attempt.
Again to make -- being a misdemeanor to be in this country without documents which it currently is not by the way -- Not our means of civil offense biamby the offense failed the punishment is removal.
I mean it's not -- -- -- -- talent out there are certain felonies associated with crossing the border illegally.
But the vast majority of people who are here legally do not follow on to those category.
How can you appeal to fiscal conservatives that what.
You think is good policy will work for their economic model.
-- obviously that's been the challenge American arguing with -- about that than what they always come back to me it's eighty people will use more welfare in the long run.
Then they'll pay back into the.
Have -- their studies show that's -- -- that they actually get more they put more into the system and take out of it.
They use far -- -- that -- orders that are actually pretty entitlement program that put far more into the system and we haven't entitlement problem that country.
By not having -- can do it makes it so that we you know it happened trying to reform it and that's.
We continually say but it's just it's moving the ball it's like we're not talking about the same terms.
They're looking at the economy has its its static which is one of the -- -- the only areas.
-- to -- sound fiscal conservatives.
Basically have a static model when they get immigration and I just maddening because fiscal conservatives have been talking about using dynamic models for 35 years.
In the city that we finally get it.
They are opposed -- you're supposed to the result.
If there were a more free flow in and out of the border.
And without guards without fences how many people would actually leave give -- data on that and then -- we would lose.
A number of people who are here on document.
Yeah you know we don't have any real data about that what we know from past experiences for expense.
-- that we had about 80%.
-- Mexicans who came into the United States between 1965.
I 880% went eventually went back to their home country in our time periods and -- restart after 1986 and increased a lot of border security.
The average -- -- have been staying in the United States increased because the uncertainty of being able to come back if they wanted to.
-- and they don't want to leave go over the border may be.
-- economy gave it to you had to play like.
If you're Mexican worker or an immigrant worker hearing you have the option to go back your own country and you take it and then all the spent -- the -- the fans and -- -- -- -- -- so much more difficult -- -- -- there's -- -- -- -- -- country.
And by the -- people -- to Cato dot org you see some of the data you have.
Yeah are you go -- the -- dot org slash immigration.
And you can check out a lot of the information that we put up about -- south CBO score about everything else related to immigration.
Alex arrest the kid really -- thank you very much for talking to us -- -- very much broader.
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