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Morning I'm Doug shone on him here with my friends and colleagues.
Pat Caddell and -- globally and we are political insiders we take -- Inside the news and inside the politics.
Behind the news so that you find out what's happening why it's happening and most importantly what are the political ramifications.
I'm -- to begin today.
With the news of the day.
And I'm -- ask John.
To begin by saying what do you make of what's happening with -- -- -- who's probably somewhere in an airport hotel in Moscow as I speak.
What does this mean for our politics our relations with the rest of the world and what implications do you draw from this.
Ongoing and still developing.
It's like an -- -- the tentacles all over the place we already knew that it's opened up.
Questions about what did the NSA do it hasn't been doing.
-- -- Legally and or illegally that's one thing that -- -- exposed but now that he's allegedly gone into the clutches of the Russians at at least at the airport.
If he's if he's there we don't even know but we don't know but let's assume he's in Moscow let's rest assured if he's there.
He's in the clutches of the rest of the Russians and Putin is really sticking it to the United States and you have the ability.
Still the stroke comes our way out where your big theme of the week which is that the American government has contempt for the American people.
Putin has content Barack Obama today I think he sees how we humans.
Did nothing but Russian you know don't know pat are they just came down look at the big download it all -- -- -- -- Before they let him go right they got all the immigrant did not extradite him because the papers -- in an order.
The papers or not and orders that we have Russians say we don't know we've been printed in the may have Ecuador saying we're keeping them.
We're keeping impose other haven't said that he was both to get on a flight for Ecuador this morning but he didn't get on the flight so he's probably -- -- -- and a in Saint Petersburg right now on the downloading again and -- for all of you want to say about.
-- he knows which held -- a lot about other systems wrong if you know law isn't he did expose them but you know you have.
I heard a congressman's morning say.
Old this is the greatest security breach in American history no it's not the greatest security breach took place a couple of years ago.
The -- would become dominant in the leak -- -- all the stuff about the rainy and computer virus that we -- the Israelis.
Launched on is that the suspects on -- on their on their.
Missiles and should be on their atom bomb or nuclear nuclear program look nobody is -- bad at all.
Because that's the insiders doing.
I'll tell you this is when I see them pursue national security for -- -- -- On these tentacles -- coming from what you asked Doug there is also the issue yesterday Schumer on his typical Sunday press conference thing.
Comes out and says if this guys in Russia Putin is making a big mistake and -- -- going to be severe ramifications.
-- They're going to be no ramifications.
The US is got no.
Old to use against Russia at the moment we try a little bit of aid to the rebels and Syria as if that's gonna do -- thing.
Couldn't just laughs that's that -- staying -- -- contempt he feels.
Pat I have the view that.
We are more aggressive and looking at our.
Citizenry particularly ones you might oppose the administration problems Tea Party and we are confronting our adversaries around world.
What am I missing nothing you got it exactly right I mean we have what we have our -- archery which are the people who war.
And it is the president said when he did that interview this -- we -- our enemies we reward our friends in this administration does that.
And they -- being -- after their enemies and by the way that's one of the themes we talked about you know yesterday we should regret it you know we have.
The head of the EP.
In a political story saying that the press.
Is so would intimidate her sources -- so intimidate.
They can't get information they've sort of gone and we know but -- of them we we still haven't gotten the bottom of what other people -- an afternoon press.
And -- we saw all the poll yesterday.
Where we had the job -- want the 600 business these heads of small business but the hundred employees or less.
It's over six over two months 6061%.
Saying that they believe that they took political life if they did -- spoke up politically -- would be.
Harassed or targeted by the IRS.
Well let me put up -- we have -- here put up.
-- Number two Obama's job approval.
Okay the disapproval -- almost 49 the approves 46 that's the real clear politics average.
John and he is trending down word.
On the ground -- stock market down over 200 points earlier this morning what do you make of.
And it was down to 44%.
One day anyway Lester to the trend line for Obama is steadily down.
That by Betty rallies -- there too it's not good -- I mean his presidency.
Is sort of evaporating.
In front of votes.
Without any help from the Republicans they're not helping to bring him down -- not doing anything they're evaporating also.
It's the political establishment the political class is he -- Because the economy is not picking.
And the news is pretty bad across the board and and this is a president with no agenda I want to say yesterday and TV and praise again -- -- -- -- And we didn't have enough time that.
We were talking about this question of Obama's thinking and I was gonna say to Gregg Jarrett Gregg a year ago right now what was Obama doing during his reelection is trashing Romney very effectively.
But he wasn't campaigning -- here's what I will do in -- second term and it goes back to what you two guys wrote in 2011.
That if Obama runs he might get reelected by trashing his opponent so viciously that he will be capable of ruling in a second term.
Your vote right you've been proven right.
Karen country apart and but look look at his agenda be you -- what's -- -- is the focus of pew poll and Gallup have those plus.
That the issues -- -- -- -- again.
Gun control immigration and climate and -- the bottom in both polls of write a book about priorities in the Gallup poll that you told 8% and the most important problem.
Meanwhile there's -- -- you can all we've continually.
Is right about -- and and and emphasizes keeps the eye on the ball the economy.
Grow jobs -- here he's.
That the united somehow exempt.
From the dial up.
And out what I was starting to get -- John and my comment to you.
Yet markets correct but it's not an inevitable up and down it can be.
Like that -- it can be like that and if we have in -- pronounced downturn which is entirely possible.
We run the risk of literally having.
The kind of not soft landing.
I think many of us fear and there's no confidence I don't believe -- in this president stabilize.
-- I think when you say when I was sort fuel we have a country that has no trust in the government now -- and across the Europe.
You know in all the polls its -- almost two thirds the American people on average -- and end.
Pew every month the big -- that Steve the Washington Post.
That the government is a direct threat to people's -- The fear of that this lack of confidence they will be waiting I think you're seeing the stop on the reflecting.
That they have no compliments.
And governments without trust democracies are troublesome.
But wouldn't want -- think she just said Doug about melting when -- wanna do -- now being analyzed.
In this is the failure of the Republicans.
It is like there's there's -- ball from the top of the mountain in the thinking go down and become an apple.
Except in the months since -- a -- you still morrow can only -- no doubt there are letting it melt if it's -- it's a failure to.
But bad could happen if that's what we're without Tony -- out the -- like the snow ball goes down.
And it's certain and pat -- -- raising another point about public opinion that is not.
Any real attention in the -- The president's gone from you know maybe -- -- little over -- -- -- In the election campaign to that down as you say is low was 44 but say leveling off notified.
The avalanche analogy.
To go from 45 to 35.
Is not impossible.
Given the confluence of negative events so far Obama's popularity and if we can put up.
Slide number one on the party popularity is get to my next point which is about you see the favorability of the Republicans.
Thirty -- favor forty 3953.
Bottom line -- Republicans are so unpopular that that helps.
-- we Obama simply because people don't have any use for.
-- used for the Republicans aren't.
That by the way this is why I think all of this comes back you ask how to prepare you know could we have the avalanche.
-- declining the whole things that.
Does it all -- for Obama.
To push harder to do -- -- board.
-- I don't think so I'll tell you -- everything we've seen.
Suggest when in doubt he goes hard what.
He's doing climate change this week he's going hard look at that given that the debt.
The deficit is coming down because there's greater than anticipated tax -- Those on the left say see we told you.
This movement towards a stared it was a mistake.
And with Krugman at all out attacking the -- Harvard were professors for data errors and with austerity not exactly a great success in Europe.
The supporters of a balanced budget are on the defensive at the very least.
Consequently -- I think for political and substandard reasons Obama will be going in the opposite -- them.
And it will be collapse.
That's a mistake if he did -- grand -- He's gonna do -- well I knew where it's about -- about his I think at this point here is trying to use drugs and reasons.
Is immediately go to try to short the based server -- -- young people are down what's fifteen to seventy points or seventeen points improbable.
Because they don't like the NSA stuff and so.
The president and of course if if they're worried narrative against him with the economy.
The young people people coming out of college educated job that would be -- same thing with -- with them minorities I mean who really paying the price for this.
None of that happening his instinct is to go if he did the campaign to -- the country try to hold my base and attack the other side.
I don't think he's got a new member grand bargain -- -- in this.
All of this stuff you talk about -- there is not popular well except in the country.
When they look at -- the level of debt or and that it where the future is and they are worried about it but you don't.
It's -- on the political -- aren't they -- They'll be some coverage this week one and the obamas go to Africa for six days and it's reported.
Each night as they go from country to country and the Washington Post brought out that it's gonna cost a hundred million bucks -- this true.
Well -- brings me -- my -- the content.
Half of the government a bomb on the government to the American people in my mind right -- -- -- we want.
The hundred million dollar trip to Africa in shutting down the White House towards beginning our republic.
And I'm able to exploit well we -- gonna come back in about thirty seconds to do two things.
Talk about the failures of the Republican Party who exploit.
The challenges that we are facing as a nation and the Democrats face.
But also the talk about the immigration bill that'll be considered this week and get into the politics of that so for John and pat I'm Doug shown we'll be back in just a second.
I'm back Doug -- was that.
Pat could doubt who's an Iron Man as far as politics.
-- and John absolutely -- who is the Iron Man McGinty.
The Valassis senior baseball league and senior baseball and John is approaching.
Not quickly as quickly as -- sixty years old -- to pass to teach you really have -- you're a young star.
Well aren't pleased to be a lot commuted the club this week iron -- -- -- -- -- I'll be in -- and happy birthday so happy birthday -- club you.
The -- on the all white men -- here well that's what why on the base to the good but pitching after sixty John.
Let's just say if I can get out of bed without aches and creeks.
-- -- -- -- but let let's turn back.
To politics and pat was talking about private practice why haven't path that John the Republican Party taken advantage.
You know I was saying just this week alone not only do we have.
That you don't mind my first example that picture we have the -- and we have the four point seven million dollars this is the and fire rescue guy Irish guy was and always be -- implementing -- we're indeed issue an order knows that -- homes and going to be it's what.
He's now paying seventy million dollars.
He is a crony of Jack -- right album White House Republicans don't complain about a couple of somebody new and clean and above reproach no.
-- senate passed over in his job as a seventy million dollars Michael hush money.
You keep this try to keep a little and that's what he's been saying for let's get serious and we have -- the head of the FBI coming saying.
All all we have an investigation why I don't know who has that I know how many people -- was ridiculous it's sort of like Connecticut and then followed by the great views and actually -- The great moment when after the NSA.
When they when the innocent returns to its internal -- the FBI BI or whatever since hired me give my boss was to buy you a beer.
-- -- -- -- backing us up you know all -- what you see is the contempt the American and collusion collusion in contempt in the American here's a Republican problem.
They have no in the -- and Indians may have just what the last few weeks Obama.
And they failed to connect the wind -- the point we discussed a week ago on health care.
You know the iris is unpopular with salt box will get the Irish public health care that would stroke.
No we don't do that we don't do it.
Growth is not -- not an element of personal freedom passe did the out party that Democrats have obviously the White -- so the only entity of national government.
Is the house -- presents the speaker of the house is John Boehner he's the only.
National Republican figure.
Right -- one.
So you gotta blame him he is the one who could say.
We're gonna investigate desirous that we could have a select committee on the -- He's not doing one -- Do wanna -- -- he's not doing it he's the one who could be raising these for concerns -- -- we've got chances where is it.
But what does this guy -- all -- them strategy it's simply.
Keep my power keep the chairman happy when it.
Well that the the question on the on the big -- -- 150 members the Republican House -- just confirms.
Warning -- like committee and he refuse.
Annually in the -- what Frank Wolf I don't know it was a friend of mine who was elected with me in 1988 great guy wrote.
Boehner a letter.
And said if you don't grant us what we want have a select committee.
Aiding and a -- aiding and abetting their cover up now that's pretty strongly go against their speaker elect which -- future of the crisis -- coming very.
That's the inside the globe -- coming infinitely let's get an obvious.
The it is clear now the -- is broken this thing's gonna pass in the senate close to seventy votes may be this week.
Look past the house.
Before -- cadets of that will it be brought to a vote in the house because past.
Boehner has said same rule after rule if the majority Republicans in the Republican conference don't support it we will not bring it to -- vote.
Well I -- his speakership might ride on this one if I.
I think the internal possible part of let me just give an overview the American -- what everything you need -- immigration reform -- -- A 12100 page bill which is being produced today out of nowhere.
We've got everyone voting I -- cute.
My -- -- anything over 200 page you can vote against what this loaded with money for casinos for Harry Reid money for rubio sugar or interest in Florida.
Everything is a giveaway in this bill.
Besides the the effort of whatever they -- -- -- doing about immigration it is a dysfunctional and co -- processes work.
And you know my house I I think the house I don't know what they're gonna do it's not the burning issue Republicans like.
Graham and others are saying we have to immigration and we never get Hispanic.
When you -- or -- just said it was we don't hear your opinion much of that is your hosting the show so yeah thanks William Boehner will bring it to the -- he will bring it to the floor.
I think it clear majority of the Republican.
Members will vote against it.
The question to me is whether there are enough Democrats will vote for a bill that for the democratic left and most house members are far left.
Will be anathema because the level border security.
In -- is so.
Podiums odious and the degree -- difficulty.
In getting a green card so formidable.
That this is not the sort of legislation -- I think most Democrats will be comfortable mentally only brings it to the floor for a vote if he knows scandalous.
The good thing.
Or did you and pieces I mean eventually but then it would view me accomplish that now all we're we're we're a long way way from us.
But I think far and no I'm -- this summer game the Indian man -- The book and we don't how to play -- it depends on dog but my right doesn't want and other events -- but a lot of the oh yes.
What's -- state of the moon the country is not happening the economy by the white speaking mariners.
One of things -- yes today this morning yesterday was all about how people are divided -- we've seen yet portable positive stuff.
But people think this is -- job -- American workers.
And if I were Republican opponent of this and you do it is the narrative that says to.
Blue collar Democrats and minorities -- the people are being hurt by this this is what's going to be don't.
There is no other it's an attack on American.
On American workers.
By having -- system.
That undermines their wages.
But since last November wrote the Republican Party spoke -- on the issue it's spoke that I has no -- no narrative that and certainly you know so economic empowerment program I have news for you may think it's simply voting for an immigration -- is going to solve their problems.
That they have -- it is whether it's Hispanics -- anybody else.
It is a failure to have that you just having narrative that has conserved for real people's lives we have.
Couple of minutes -- John who will win what will be the margin -- -- of the races tomorrow I think we've been watching this poor show.
Mean would be if somehow and Gomez the Republican -- upset Markey and when this thing that would be read -- is that gonna happen now not.
I really I wish it would happen but I think not I think it's a flat race he's flat no energy.
No energy at anymore either but they're more Democrats -- Republicans.
I think that marquee wins maybe double digits pat.
Well I think you.
Of these two things happen -- got close at one point but he's had almost no word from Republican donors and others in releasing our allies well.
Also I think instead of being and he -- gotten so wrapped in news Miami what -- Republicans not.
Is opposed to going after marquis is the symbol of the corruption of the recent years of the system as well if -- wanted to pure outsider.
-- -- peace deal.
I think you have more chance.
Problem is there's no energy.
In this -- there was Scott Brown in 2000 and and the differences conference eighteen million dollars yes we're going so why didn't the national Republicans help the homeless because -- Because you don't know -- that look.
That the hardest thing in military history in the military historians and I'm an -- The hardest thing -- an army in retreat turned one in which.
This is what they don't understand is someone said to me -- said to me about Republicans but they don't care -- is one thing winning begets winning.
And all -- ever since November they have been all retreat -- he didn't take up.
That the case with the president over reaching on executive power to -- so many issues they -- won on they don't they all back.
And I think we are paralyzed.
And what they're opening is the vacuum we keep talking about is getting bigger and.
Why didn't they put money in when he when -- was seven point fine anymore I don't think they believe he was seven point I don't think they wanna.
To put the money and I think.
Given that they've lost so many races last time where they said.
They were close my guess is that there including they loaded it and in his Scott Brown.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- That the money is actually problem is they have so much of -- they they literally don't know how to stick -- not want them to come.
What the Republican infrastructure well they're super pacs that -- the party committees whatever.
We are running out of time I think we are Finnish forward today.
For pat and John I'm Doug -- we'll be back.
On Sunday on the Fox Network pat will be.
Regrettably off in France.
Green -- with his grandchildren being eight.
Very good and loving family man which he certainly is w.s and celebrate you when you see people are -- -- celebrate -- week.
Joining the sixty -- you're all invited to.
Send whatever gets you watch money and and let anybody absolutely all accepted guilt on news for the best possible -- for myself.
Bundle for me for John it.
And and pat.
Where the political insiders thanks for joining us see you next Monday and there.
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