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-- there's -- of conventional wisdom out there about the current immigration reform effort and what house Republicans will do.
Senior political analyst Brit Hume is here tonight with what may be wrong about that wisdom to be -- I'm -- backers of the senate immigration bill say it contains the strongest border enforcement measures ever taken.
And that those would have to be in effect before anyone takes -- first step on the bill's path to citizenship.
Those statements may be true but in political terms there are probably beside the point.
That's because the bill also makes what is called a registered provisional immigrant state is available almost immediately.
The most illegals now in this country and that before any of the new border protections are in place.
This is what house Republicans mean when they complain -- to -- puts legalization.
Ahead of former border enforcement's it ducks.
Now this provisional legal status is not quite amnesty immigrants who register would have to pay a fine undergo -- background -- they couldn't vote -- have to pay back taxes.
And would not be eligible for most government benefits but it's still close enough to amnesty to give house Republicans some firm political ground from which to oppose a senate bill.
They keep being told a look at the 2012 election results in the week showing my Mitt Romney with the country's growing Hispanic vote oppose immigration form they're -- they're told.
And the GOP will never win another national election.
Those house Republicans might well -- we just did and that's why they control the house then have little interest in backing what will look -- many of their constituents.
Like amnesty -- Bring you touched on -- there but that conventional was on about the political fallout of all this.
This seems supercharged.
Towards the democrats' way if you listen did anybody talking about.
It does and there's no doubt that long term the growth of the Hispanic vote which continues to grow will make a big difference in national elections.
But it remains about 10% live of the of the vote now the white vote.
Is something around orders 70% they won't be that much different in two years or four.
And the white vote actually.
From its expectations despite the fact and Tony twelve that the -- white population had grown.
So if you're if you're Republicans looking at how do you best to get more votes and a bigger piece of the vote.
He got to look to a larger proportion of 70% rather than larger proportion of 10% it just makes sense mathematically.
For the time being and of course the chances are that different -- -- Republicans have a better shot.
It winning avoid white votes and they do the Hispanic or the other ethnic votes because that's just how the -- -- so.
I think the conventional wisdom that they have to have the Hispanic vote and long term means is is is reasonable.
But in the near term and -- -- excellence.
Barbara thank you.
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