Also in this playlist...
This transcript is automatically generated
That reset with Russia -- we're we're going to improve the relations between the United States and Russia.
Some five years ago -- hasn't worked out for a while.
And -- -- the former US ambassador to be -- Ukraine Stephen -- joining us he's our senior fellow at the Brookings Institution -- thrilled to have you with us Russian expert.
Former Soviet Union man obviously has been.
In really about -- what's going on in the Ukraine can please tell us what has happened to the United States Russian relationship.
And particularly through the prism of Edwards Snowden.
Right well a couple of.
Things about Edwards start and certainly that is the distraction that has commanded -- attention on US Russia relations for the past month.
But I think there -- couple of things to bear in mind.
First of all the chances that the Russians are going to send him back United States are zero it's just not the way they're gonna play the game.
And second down the United States and Russia Washington and Moscow know how to contain these kinds of issues and if they want to keep those issues from.
Boiling over and African broader relationship they know how to do it they've been doing it for decades.
So why is simple ally in Africa if they're both countries now how to -- that's -- are -- that.
Well I think so far again you know there's a question or how much has it affected the real relationship.
But I just a couple of examples from the past three years ago the FBI arrested and expelled ten Russian sleeper agents couldn't that was not a bump in the relationship and I go back to a time when -- distributed embassy in Moscow backed the late 1980s.
In 1986 at a time when the relationship between President Reagan and Soviet general secretary -- hard -- -- -- -- -- government very positive way.
We expelled no fewer than eighty Soviet diplomats and again it wasn't a box of the sites -- contain this I think most of the attention is really coming.
From outside the government in the media congress in place.
He talked -- because you have been in those meetings where presidents and prime ministers have sat down.
You know that sometimes the personality matters an awful lot sometimes it matters very little.
What can each of the dynamic between President Putin and President Obama you read in the media that that they came family in the same room with each other.
Is that true and if so is that that having an effect on the US Russian relationship.
Well a couple we're just all I've never been in the meeting between President Obama and President Putin.
Certainly the accounts you've seen suggests that there there's a certain coolness between them.
But I think it's important to remember that what's gonna drive both Obama and who and in terms of how they approach this.
Is -- -- perception of national interest payment of the interest of the united states of interest from Russia.
Now sometimes a good relationship can help keep you get things going.
But again if if the interest aren't there it's going to be hard to sustain it and I would point out to the example of president George W.
Bush and Broderick who.
The -- seem to have a very good personal chemistry.
But it did not keep the US Russia relationship from deteriorating significantly from 2003 down to 2008.
What are the interest that are so different.
Can you name it -- says Syria is said and Europe is that the economic situation.
What are they get what are the places where the United States or Russia -- -- a very different directions.
Well this is one of these these two things I think when you look at the big issues.
In many cases are non proliferation.
Trying to promote bilateral commercial relations between the two countries.
The interest of the two countries' -- certainly -- partisan differences -- Syria.
Where I think the Russians on the one hand there's there's a couple of reasons behind Russia's position one when you don't have a lot of international allies you reluctant to cast -- aside.
But I think even more the other reason and when I'm actually bit sympathetic to is the Russians asked the question.
If Assad goes -- comes in behind him and I don't think we in the west have a good answer that question the Russians can imagine a lot of possibilities that are worse -- aside.
So there's that difference there's differences over human rights issues with in Russia.
And the political repression but we -- -- big questions Iran and north create controlling proliferation.
There are a lot of areas where the United States measures should be working together.
And the -- -- an earlier this month gave a speeder in July gave a speech at Saint Petersburg tour.
A conference of international investors saying Russia is open for business we're investing in our infrastructure we want to invite you there.
Foreign currencies in Russia have come and help us and our energy.
He said the door is wide open most news -- said that the international restaurant community.
Said now critics that they're not very interested and certainly Russia in the last decade has not have the kind of foreign investment it means.
To expand and -- diversify its economy.
-- talk about the financial and economic and business.
Situation Russia it is is it really opened for business is -- -- friendly and if so why isn't anybody rushing through the door.
Yeah well I think I think there -- some investors have been in Russia for a long time and have learned how to work the system and -- doing well.
But for a lot of other investors particularly -- medium -- companies when they look at Russia what they see is red tape.
Complex tax and customs rules.
-- huge bureaucracy.
They -- -- legal system that you can't have confidence and I mean it was in Pristina.
Two weeks ago when the Russian courts pronounced.
Anatoly and -- -- -- guilty.
On which looked to be very much a trumped up charge the Russian stock market tanked.
Because you can't separate the question of manipulation of the court from political purposes for manipulation of the court system for economic purposes -- So there's a lot of issues with regards to the investment climate in Russia that make companies reluctant to -- -- But also -- -- last couple years you've seen huge capital outflow out of Russia that suggests that Russians also.
Are reluctant to keep their money there they -- to go to other places including as we saw a few months ago Cyprus.
I was interested to see this week that are leading the Saudi businessman has come and says Saudi Arabia watch out America's energy.
It's going to be devout America to be energy independent.
The world may not need Saudi oil now if you're -- in Russia and you're looking at the western Siberian oil fails and you realize that Russia's.
Main export and main way of making money as oil and natural gas experts are just a little nervous too.
You should be particularly when the Russian budget is so dependent on oil and gas prices in -- the Russians they.
Paid their budget each year to the price of a barrel of oil.
And -- had a huge impact over the last six or seven years.
Is the increase production in the united states of unconventional gas and unconventional oil to the point where in 20/20 you know we may not need any imports.
And that's had an impact for example on gas from gas -- -- market value is probably about 30% of what it was in 2008.
And that's because.
Ten years ago in the Persian gulf they built a huge volumes are huge capacities export liquefied national gas to the United States.
We don't need it that gas is now going to -- which display imports of gas from gas from having a very.
Big impact on gas -- future production picture.
Mean OK so it.
As usual it is much more complicated than just something over Edwards thousands -- and the transit lounge.
Of Moscow airport hey thanks so much is -- sure -- thank you so much ambassador Stephen -- of the Brookings institute thank you so much for joining us.
Thanks for having me.
Filter by section