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Well we heard from President Obama the top of the show.
He has suspended.
The relationship to some extent with Egypt saying it can't continue as a -- anti -- that he.
-- military exercise was jeetz take place next month the purpose of the exercise cool bright star.
I've been to help train up the Egyptian military to bring about further stability.
In Egypt clearly the military is not able to do -- and -- extreme.
Crackdown yesterday on the Muslim Brotherhood gets a share.
Whether indeed it has any control and he has -- ability to bring stability so how much this setback is it.
That the US now what's rethink -- relationship with the Egyptian military.
And he -- of -- that military operation what does that mean in terms of future support for the Egyptian military will let her speak to.
-- -- who is the vice president of global analysis -- stressful she's joining us from Allstate.
In Texas -- thanks very much for joining us how surprised are you that present a -- cancel this exercise.
And is now saying that America will rethink its relationship with Egypt.
I think this is entirely expected dominate -- -- United States is actually very trapped in its position right now in Egypt on the one hand.
It is very relieved to see Islamist political forces in Egypt suppressed and it was in favor of the military reasserting itself in the political process even had to keep that strategic interest quiet.
Now at the United States is afraid of is that the military may overreach.
And its power in trying to crackdown in trying to stamp out that protest culture from the streets and so have to engage in those.
Necessary condemnations and distances itself from the military's actions so actions -- canceling the military exercises.
Postponing -- transfer of F sixteen -- Those are all entirely expected reunited states can try to demonstrate to the world look.
We are not in favor of how far in the military is -- -- but notice that Obama did not cancel the one winning billion dollars in annual aid.
To the military that there is still a very strong strategic relationship that the United States will maintain.
So what does that leave the Egyptian military now how can similarly be that America.
He's pulling back some of its support and indeed easy too focused on what's going on internally to really -- Well you know the military is looking -- its own imperatives at this point if we look at what's been happening with the protests noticed that the Muslim Brotherhood protests in stark contrast to the protests that have been taking place.
And -- -- square in the heart of Cairo.
The credit -- -- were more in the outskirts these -- not nearly as disruptive as other demonstrations we've seen in Egypt over the past two years.
Even when it comes to declaring a state of emergency.
To warrant the military to make all of these arrests in the military didn't necessarily have to go that far.
But there's a political message being sent here -- that message is that the military can not afford to tolerate.
That strongest street protest culture that's been dominating Egypt for the past two years.
It wants to intimidate people off the streets so it can stabilize the country once again.
Now it's going to be difficult for the military to effectively do that.
But that's where I think the United States is going to be can.
It's going to be a -- -- concerns -- the United States is going to maintain a relationship with Egypt like I said and there's a lot of negotiations taking place -- at least.
But I think says -- day Egyptian militaries still knows.
But it has very important relationship still.
Financial relationships with the saudis would be -- RIT's -- giving Egypt they -- needs to economically survive.
Because they are just as happy to see the Muslim Brotherhood suppressed.
The Egyptian public also want to see the Muslim Brotherhood suppressed Austral government did little to address the problems the start of the Arab Spring.
In the first place does the power based purely -- with the military now all isn't enough popular discontent with the -- what the military is -- To actually create.
Well that's the funny thing you know ideas and the perceptions Ken Kendrick can change very fast in Egypt when you're -- -- through square in Cairo.
If you just look at what's been happening over the past two years.
First use you know pictures of Mubarak.
And big lines slashed -- his face.
In bed -- squared then pretty easy after that -- pictures of ten tally then military general.
Once the military stepped in and took over an -- of CC.
It's been seen as kind of the savior.
To take them Muslim -- -- out of the government.
And replace that government with a secular one -- the military is encountering many of the same structural constraints.
That the brotherhood government has and so it's not going to be able to escape that criticism I think there are a lot of people that are -- this.
About how far the military will go if you just look at the appointment of governors this past week.
Nineteen new governors appointed -- former generals and so.
There's going to be a lot of discontent brewing over the military's actions even as many people are relieved to see them -- -- brother had gone.
The military says it wants to have fresh elections and President Obama today was saying that indeed democracy must continued.
In Egypt but really is there any sense that that can actually reading this can happen especially while those violence on the street while as its instability.
And they -- it begs the question that is the Middle East it's cold ready for democracy what do you think.
Well I don't think Egypt is and I think that expectations for elections are going to be dashed because if we look back to when Mubarak was ousted.
The military actually facilitated those popular demonstrations they summoned Barak and his son -- liabilities they were willing to undergo.
A democratic experiment to replace the Mubarak regime so long as -- military could retain.
It's ultimate authority.
Now we'll have to see how well now that the military's kind of starting over its aborted -- experiment.
And now I asked to start Everett got start over is going to be necessarily messy on the -- now need to re gain control.
So it's going to be difficult for the military and to engage in those elections when he can't afford to see the Muslim Brotherhood and it's a lot Islamist supporters.
Re gain support through the polls.
I'd like to talk about the US in this wants more because it is being criticized.
Really for having.
No streaks plan on how to deal with Egypt because when -- dealing with -- Egypt is also dealing with a wider region particularly Israel.
Why is the US confused.
Seemingly about what he should do with Egypt.
Well I think the United States has a lot more interest it needs to address less about -- confused so if we look at the other big event that's taking place in the region right now the resumption of Israeli Palestinian talks which does not have as much fanfare as the previous rounds and for good reason the United States -- want to hold very high expectations.
I just trying to do something very serious -- Now the Israelis are looking at their regional surroundings basing their vulnerabilities rise they were terrified by the -- of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.
They know that they need the military.
To be the strong men and Egypt to retain control of the situation in Egypt.
And most importantly in the Sinai Peninsula where we've seen militants he increase says Israel is trying to engage in peace negotiations which the US is pushing.
It needs to rely on -- heat on -- Egyptian military to reinforce security from it sends it.
Israel hopes to gain any security concessions from the Palestinians.
And so that's where again the military is essential.
Let's talk about this peace talks five hours of talks yesterday it -- supposedly an undisclosed location.
No information really of how they went its full.
How much sincerity really is there in these talks look what happened this week Israel released.
And nearly a hundred prisoners.
A Palestinian prisoners most of them Harden criminals but then suddenly announced that he was getting into builds 2000 plus settlements.
The timing of that was highly criticized.
It doesn't seem really that any side a tool but he wants this to happen is that true.
Well ES -- -- so the bargain mean that you would expect has taken place you know with that additional.
Settlements and -- the same time matching that -- prisoner releases.
That's how you basically answered your constituency in entering these negotiations here it's going to require.
That kind of give and take so I I would pay as much attention to that that's entirely expected but if you look at what Israel is trying to achieve here again it's feeling that urgency.
To negotiate with the Palestinians for a legitimate reasons now a big glaring of sparkle fault -- these negotiations.
Is a complete -- -- Hamas and Hamas as you know is in control of the Gaza Strip.
Access which controls the West Bank is extremely -- so there's a huge question of whether it can enforce any agreement.
That it tries to make with Israel and without a mask you're effectively undermining a -- state solution.
The question is can Israel negotiate a limited a settlement went fat tax.
That can be imposed on Hamas and I think expectations there.
I understand and -- our our low given the constraints that that is certainly the intent.
Read Obama's from stressful thank you very much for joining us.
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