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What -- welcome back you're like Iran -- Michael Amanda commanders extinct distinguished professor cut extinguishment.
This thing there's professor.
Meteorologist Kent State University.
Would -- appointments the department of geo sciences and the earth and environmental systems institute the other.
Dire predictions understanding global warming in the hockey stick in the climate wars.
Dispatches from the front lines and he is computer -- other authors.
But the IP CC -- ward of the 2007.
Nobel Peace Prize.
If you were awarded we knew nothing about his -- I it was actually awarded to the IP CC but the authors.
The report all received accommodations for contributing to the -- So I'm on -- the other day in the argument was that.
There was a slowdown in the rate of -- mean since 1998.
So that only goes to show that.
It is -- all it's cracked up to be this human contribution right to global warming.
He ought first solid it's great to be back quick you.
And yet it is -- has gotten a lot of discussion recently.
The what would.
Some people claim there's a pause in warming and in fact that's not what's happening.
People sort of cherry pick.
They're starting pixels start out with the year 1998.
Which was a very warm here because it was a big el Nino year.
And if you start.
With -- 1998 year.
Then it's easy to try to argue.
That though there's no warming because the next few years weren't warmer than this record 1998 to.
And that's really.
Cherry picking -- it's misrepresentation.
You know how how the real world works and you know what.
You know the way things.
Work is that there's a lot of year -- year variability because it's things like don't -- you know because of things like volcanic eruptions.
And so if you look at the -- -- are very short time interval you can go to almost any answer you want depending on -- how you choose your starting date.
That's why we don't do that that's right good scientists.
Don't cherry -- they're starting gates or try to look at trends over very short time interval you step back if you look at what's the longer term trend.
And if we account for the year to year fluctuations.
Due to things like only -- And things like volcanic eruptions.
Compact and what's left over.
You know what's the pattern there and it's very clear that the pattern as a consistent warming of a rate that's about that this.
Degree and -- half Celsius more than two degrees Fahrenheit per century and we're still warming up that rate.
When you take account of that short term departures due to things like el Nino.
Did my imagination -- is -- they're not more evidence.
With the latest report that human.
Behavior contributes to global warming.
Yes absolutely the I PVC in this latest report substantially increased their confidence.
In the statement that most of the warming that we have seen over the past half century is due.
To human influences is due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.
Back in 2007 when they published -- fourth assessment report the attached.
Confidence -- very likely to that statement.
In the latest report they.
Attached to -- confidence of extremely likely to that conclusion which is about as you know as strong statement as you'll ever see.
Thousands of -- test.
-- collectively agreed to.
-- -- so what are the people on the other side.
In advance of this report being released -- just the opposite.
Well you know it's what I content referred to as the is down black is white world of climate change denial.
There's -- fifteen -- -- Quote attributed to -- senator Daniel.
I'm in today's world there are those who feel they're entitled to their own facts so regardless of the fact.
That the US National Academy of Sciences.
Confounded by the way by a Republican president Abraham Lincoln in the nineteenth century despite the fact that they are on record.
Climate change is real it's due to it represented a threat if we don't do something of.
I was an expanded the amount of warming the scientists expect in response to a doubling of CO2 concentrations.
Is not as much as previously thought.
Yes that's another.
Common the F.
That is this has been getting a lot of play recently.
That's not actually true what BI TCC has done is they've.
Slightly expanded the range of uncertainty -- happened actually shifted.
The estimate of the sensitivity.
Of the climate.
To greenhouse gases they haven't lowered that estimate what they've done is they've widened.
It is so there's more or less what the insurgency range was what cited in the 2001 report.
So it is this the lower end.
If you look at the extreme range if you know how sensitive the climate could be.
The lower end of that estimated range is a little bit lower so because the uncertainties expanded about it but our best estimate is still that.
You get about four and a half degrees almost five degrees Fahrenheit warming for a -- -- -- concentrations and that puts us well beyond.
With scientists who study the impacts of climate change.
Describe as dangerous and potentially irreversible.
Climate which I would doctor Michael Mann a distinguished professor.
Meteorologist Penn State -- real climatologist.
Who understands the what appear if you study actually has but I don't really understand is.
Why this is even a left or right issue.
And it what why why should they even -- and this isn't about.
You know we're not talking about abortion or gay rights -- guns here -- talking about the environment climate wasn't why should this be conservatives verses liberals.
Well it doesn't make sense to me -- especially when you look at sort of the origins of conservatism I mean environmental conservation -- -- conservatism and Teddy Roosevelt great Republican.
You -- you know -- room with an advocate for environmental preservation.
Not too long ago -- less than ten years ago -- Republican from New York team that chair of the house science committee and he was -- pros science pro environment Republicans.
-- they're out there unfortunately.
We don't hear their voices as much anymore there's this shrill.
Sort of -- stream.
You know friendship.
Ambush it'd been limited is an oil money that comes there way is it -- follow the money trail -- now -- Well you know at the top bomb -- that's certainly what's going on you've got to you know.
Folks like the Coke Brothers spending literally hundreds of millions of dollars polluting the discussions that -- public discourse over.
On this issue.
You know -- advocates -- establishing front groups whose intentions is.
To create confusion about the threat of climate change.
And then because it becomes sort of the Canon.
It becomes sort of a litmus test it within you know -- extreme.
You know the extreme portion of of that party the Republican Party.
You know you -- politicians -- feel like they have this crazy I climate change if they don't wanna be primary did their next you know primary campaign.
One of the things that was embraced by.
At least the latest report and the scientists to attach to it is a target level in which humanity must stop putting.
Into the atmosphere.
The -- you know toxins right or -- -- in trouble.
If we -- more than a trillion tons of carbon into the atmosphere.
We almost certainly commit ourselves.
-- dangerous interference with our climate com and where most of the way there were well over halfway there.
And there're -- proven fossil fuel reserved.
To get triple that amount of carbon into the atmosphere -- -- we literally mine you know all the carbon that's available in the form of fossil fuels coal natural gas.
We can easily go well beyond the limit.
You know dangerous climate change.
What really -- -- things that -- Talking about lately here on this show is.
Are we gonna burn ourselves time and eventually that the universal stop existing the subtle burnout when I'm going to be here forever -- we to do it to ourselves and extinguisher cells quicker than might otherwise have happened naturally.
Well you know that the sun is slowly getting brighter over time we know that the sun was 30%.
When -- its first formed you know billions of years ago more than four billion years ago.
Then it is now and it's slowly increasing -- the fact is that if we wait to you know another billion years.
The best available evidence tells us that earth will probably be too hot for life as we know it too but you know what what we.
Those sorts of time scales are relevant what we care about our you know our children.
And our -- -- A million years ago there's a lot told to do an intimate trying to make in her -- -- before it happened a few hundred years and what get it right at that time.
Thank you so much as always for coming on the program I was appreciate the opportunity if -- wisdom on this thought command thanks for your time always a pleasure out thank you very much and under Michael -- when the time climatologist in the world.
Director of the earth system science senator.
Professor of meteorologist Kent State.
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