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At -- -- and came to their front.
This week President Obama meets with the Pakistani foreign minister know why Shareef.
In Washington to to discuss the whole range of US Pakistani relations including the United States aid to Pakistan.
And joining us for a preview of what's likely to happen is -- marquis he's at council on foreign relations fallow for.
India Pakistan South Asia and he's the author of the new book no exit from Pakistan America's tortured relationship -- Islamabad.
So we think it's a great -- -- -- it elect actor read to by.
-- -- -- lyzard got you let's talk about it you know it can into the year 2000 United States relations with Pakistan.
lay off began on again we and other -- relationship with him again from 37 million dollars.
We sort of knew that they were corrupt country that they -- democratic country backed -- and debt democracy.
Sort of ping pong game with military dictatorships and then September 11 happened.
Famously said to the Pakistan nature of their with passing or against us and if you're with us we'll give -- a lot of favorite lunch -- to help -- fight the war on -- So that anywhere from 37 million in the year 2000.
To a high -- Four point five billion with a B in 2000 -- ten.
And even -- that in depth and -- when we got and a lot -- to get him by ourselves.
So the current state of the US Pakistan relations what are they likely discuss that -- -- -- Contends he sure I think where we are right now is kind of in -- in the third chapter.
In this relationship post nine elevenths.
So you mentioned the renegotiation of the relationship -- with president then President Musharraf.
Then President Bush coming to new terms and cooperation on counterterrorism.
Didn't work perfectly but worked pretty well we got politic Mohammed we've got a variety of other top al-Qaeda characters in those early days after 9/11.
Think -- for awhile went downhill.
We weren't fully satisfied.
We had a second deal with the new army chief general -- -- And a new leadership civilian leadership in 2008.
Now that civilian leadership is out and a new army chief is on the way in Islamabad.
By the end of November and so it's kind of a third chapter had -- we renegotiate that relationship for another round.
Mainly on the counterterrorism front we've got a lot of other issues there the end of the war in Afghanistan.
Or least our participation.
We've got nuclear weapons in Pakistan.
And we've got their big economic challenges and the relationship with India just to name a couple.
The critics who say -- airport -- a lot of money into Pakistan primarily.
Military assistance has supposedly to help us but we know that it's rife with corruption.
What are we getting out of Pakistan at this point why should we continue to throw good money after bad.
One answer would be that we shouldn't and I think a lot of people have suggested that we ought to -- the very least change the way that we use the money that we provide.
And I would be in that category I think and I think even the White House right now is looking at.
More trade laissez.
And scaling back the kinds of billions of dollars that you're talking about an assistance.
The other answer is we're still heavily involved in this war in Afghanistan which is right next door.
We need to some extent the Pakistani supply lines which are very important to even just bring some of our supplies out of Afghanistan.
And I think we shouldn't completely dismiss the possibility that we can have better cooperation.
On the counterterrorism front moving ahead.
With this new leadership in Islamabad I think this is -- test as a test to see whether a new prime minister and soon a new army chief would do better than in the past these are reasons to keep trying.
But we should be very careful we should be skeptical because you're right we haven't gotten a lot out of -- on have been very frustrated and we spent billions and billions of dollars tens of billions.
-- fast forward to move 20142000.
-- in the United States is out of Afghanistan where to relieve any kind of residual force afterwards that's -- big question mark.
As being negotiated now.
Do we what -- we need in our relationship with Pakistan and what can they do it to justify our assistance once we're out we no longer need Pakistan me.
Supply lines to get our staff and -- Yes well I think then we're going to expect that we will see a significant retrenchment on direct US assistance I think -- billions in at least on the military side will shrink.
They may not go to zero but it will come down a lot of the money that we've been spending is what we call reimbursements.
In Washington reimbursements.
For -- the kinds of things that the pakistanis are doing along their border with Afghanistan.
To help support that we -- war in Afghanistan.
They charge us we spend I think it's about a hundred million dollars a month sabbatical -- for some of these billions and much of that will go away.
Then the question -- so why -- Pakistan matter after that.
And I think the book really tries to -- this point home.
Pakistan will be something over 300 million people one mid century could be the fourth largest country in the world by population.
As a big and growing nuclear arsenal.
Borders India which were trying to cultivate as a closer partner and borders China where we have a lot of questions about the future of our relationship.
Borders the Arabian Sea and Iran -- is -- difficult part of the world where if we have a very hostile and difficult relationship with Pakistan.
It will hurt us as well so that doesn't mean we have to shower them with gifts.
But it does mean that we try to come to some sort of cooperative relationship even if -- more narrow one and one that doesn't require us to provide billions.
Going forward apparent switch.
Have bad Taliban al-Qaeda.
You know present -- sad al-Qaeda core which was headquartered in northern Pakistan is really -- -- -- just on the ropes are kind of sort of move John.
Has Pakistan or what -- does that present in -- to the stability of Pakistan where another on the way back to Afghanistan.
But do they present a threat to -- stability of the Pakistan against them.
-- right now Pakistan is in a fight for its own survival the Pakistani state and people in Pakistan.
I've been threatened by extreme violence and -- get some attention here in the United States.
We're talking tens of thousands of people.
Civilians being killed in Pakistan.
And the most of them not being killed by US drones or anything to do with the US activities they're being killed by Pakistani terrorists Pakistani Taliban -- a group that.
And -- basically has the same ideology or is very difficult to distinguish from al-Qaeda.
-- they're very active along the Pakistan Afghanistan border.
They've been active in Pakistan's cities have been blowing up churches blowing up mosques belong out markets attacking organs of the state.
-- I was in a fight.
And there we have a common cause so we have differences over a variety of other groups some of the groups active in Afghanistan with blood.
American blood on their hands the pakistanis have at least tacitly if not actively supported them.
The Pakistani Taliban are threat to Pakistan's stability.
And by extension their threat to us and you know to remind people.
Few years ago there was.
Man Faisal Shahzad who attempted to blow up a Jeep in the middle of Times Square.
He was trained by the Pakistani Taliban.
Fortunately he wasn't trained well.
Because things would have gotten much worse -- but this is a group that will be opportunistic and will attack -- We'll attack us -- attack India and attack the west in general.
And so we need to be concerned about it and right now the Pakistani state sees them as a threat as well.
Both -- nuclear weapons states.
In -- as an economic miracle or at least has -- and tell -- more recently Pakistan as an economic basket basket case.
Yep they're both -- their historic.
Well and -- throwing out and going back literally hundreds if not thousands of years.
What's the prospect going forward between India and Pakistan.
And why should we care for if we're not involved in that part of the world -- relieving -- -- with Afghanistan.
Why -- we really care what happens between Pakistan.
But the short answer would be nuclear weapons and these are two nuclear armed states and so -- crisis between the two of them can escalate to the nuclear level.
Now you could say well that's all very far away from the United States and the chances of that happening may still be small and I would agree with that.
But we have an interest in India that is the United States has an interest in India and cultivating India as a growing Asian partner.
-- there's a broad strategic question about how to manage the rise of China.
India is a part of that the answers a strong India provides a counterweight in Asia to China.
So we care about -- stability because we care about what happens in broader Asia.
As we care about economic consequences.
Of our relationship with China so these are things are all fairly -- -- -- are also -- and pockets on can be a spoiler.
In India's rise -- party scene if you remember 2008.
The attacks in Mumbai India sponsored by -- Pakistan based terrorist group.
They shut down the city of Mumbai India could suffer significant trauma like that from -- If -- -- gets worse and worse less stable more prone to violence that's the kind of thing that we need to be worried about the broader regional agenda.
And why we need to care about India and and it's foolish to.
OK well thank you very much stand market -- -- -- -- relations and author of the new bestselling book.
No exit from Pakistan America's tortured relationship with Islamabad thanks so much for joining us -- -- -- country.
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