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Another edition of Special Report on line I'm Bret -- if you haven't been here before welcome.
If you want to -- -- your question or comments hopefully I'll be able to read them here I'm having a hard time logging on in my computer.
So hopefully you're not and you're on here type in the question and comment and I'll try to read -- as soon as we get it on.
In here and if you don't like the sound of the clicking for all the comments there is the speak about right there.
He just hit that the sound mysteriously goes.
Let's bring in our panel Steve AB and Charles we want to start with talking about.
Where we left off on this.
Tax rate compromise Charles you are.
Adamant that is the wrong deal.
Well EES I do on the merits Everett.
And we generally using using his you've got -- split between woods I was talking about earlier of -- tax cut religions people like.
-- do believe it if you cut taxes are you maintain and here in a low level.
That will trump everything else because that's the most important and I think there's another thing that came out in November -- -- slightly different.
Often it's the same idea but he -- is in the choice over the tax cut deals.
Slightly different which is protest about the size the scope the reach of the government and the -- And and the number that struck me is a one or heard from Paul Ryan who supports for the deal.
But nonetheless said look 550 billion of it is just extension of tax -- so that's okay.
And the price was over about a trip a third of a trillion.
In increased spending which he doesn't like that that is a huge amount of money -- to blow it off as if it well it's a price for tax cuts.
Which again I think we would have had otherwise in January anyway.
Seems to be -- -- price particularly.
In light of the fact about the protest happening in the senate now when they're righteously indignant.
Over in 2000000000 and eight billion.
In earmarks which is miniscule compared -- what was agreed to.
In extra spending in the tax -- -- -- being as it seems that there's a real divide here about the importance of this award means for the account.
Yes I think that the Republicans in in the leadership in the congress are pushing -- compromise genuinely believes that.
That the disruption it which Charles who calls -- -- would be found devastating.
And and it is it's too much money lost in the pockets.
Americans who need it but it's also -- too much -- -- shops and markets and therefore you know ultimately costing more jobs and it's just.
It's just is it's.
It's a it's a difference a difference of opinion about an hour later I think it's -- difference of opinion that you know everyone wants to do the same thing but do you sort of do this now to prevent.
A rate hike.
And and what could be the ripple effects of that.
Or do you -- -- and I think and I think it's so interesting that the incoming majority leader is making the case.
To his members that this is not something you play games with it's not time for that is on a risk to take.
And this is we're gonna experience -- ranch April we get.
And it ended it is in the near you know Charles is right to to a large extent that it is -- stimulus it is on paid for it I see why conservatives would be opposed to it.
It is it's it's really -- -- it's going to be.
What what -- like I said earlier just the beginning.
This sort of balkanization of this divide in the Republican Party and that nominating process for president is.
-- is create so much pressure on those in congress trying to leading keep the housing -- trying -- arch.
In Brooklyn says Republicans need to stop compromising.
See before -- get to you Charles Larry Summers came out this week and said if this doesn't happen the economy has a real risk of going to double dip recession.
Now I get the whole part about.
Republican congress could come back do their own deal better deal this stuff to get it through the democratic senate and they democratic president.
And in the meantime.
If the economy does crater as Larry Summers if you believe them or don't believe them it goes into a double dip recession are we -- hurting the revenues.
And potentially creating a bigger problem for the country then this.
Would create -- I would distinguish between two scenarios.
If it never passes and the tax rates are raised and they stay high.
And nothing is done yes I would agree with Summers everybody else who -- being hit on the economy and it would be bad.
Everybody knows that Obama more than anybody he's doing is going to be reelected in November of 2012.
And if the economy actually has -- doubled if he's not gonna get reelected he has every interest in making sure of the rates.
Are kept where they are so either the Republicans should have simply held out right now and said.
We're gonna do nothing except perhaps which we originally heard about a straight swap of keeping their rates in return for unemployment insurance which is.
About fifty billion and not you know hundreds of billions -- will do it in January and if you had this.
Second a scenario of simply a two week hiccup for you have the rise in the race for two weeks to Republicans are in power the house immediately as HR.
10 pass return to the bush rates to -- -- undoubtedly would support it is Obama gonna.
-- it and then invite exactly what his own Larry Summers has said is gonna cause a double dip recession.
No so I think Republicans had all the hot -- the cards and they tossed him away at a very expensive toss of a quarter of a trillion dollars.
Steve I do think that you consider -- as much confidence as you said I think it's left and far less clear the President Obama would have been forced by the Republicans to accept their market.
You know at a certain point to compromise -- -- -- -- he's got a you get something for signing something that he -- wanna get think about the way that this did tax issue has been discussed over the past year.
President Obama when he's talked about Texas has said one thing over and over again.
I do not want to extend the rates on the upper income levels he actually says tax cut which is dishonest but he has basically I want the rich people to keep their own money.
Republicans on the other hand have -- for years we need to extend all of the rates.
On -- and on that alone it's a huge huge win for Republicans.
And when you look at the amount of spending I'm not I didn't see what Paul -- said on FOX News Sunday but if you look at the way that the Congressional Budget Office scored it.
Spending 55 billion of which came as a part of these Extenders which you know they count -- spending more or less.
Happens every year most of them stink it's bad they should try to eliminate him.
But tough to to not.
22 vote for or support what will be a de facto tax increase.
On everybody with the risks that that brings to the overall economy not just because there could be a hiccup or it could be a two week thing.
But because it says to the world and it says -- to creditors says everybody.
The political situation the United States to think nothing of the economy is so screwed up.
That they can't even reach this basic level of compromise I think could have devastating effects and West Point now just I'll shut up.
It's not just Larry Summers who's talking about the threat of a double -- procession there.
You know analysts all over the place we're doing -- and if you look at what Goldman Sachs suggested if you didn't.
To extend the rates at current rates could cost up to two and a half points and GDP it.
It supports the argument I'm making which -- if Obama's.
Own Larry Summers and let's say in the neutral Goldman Sachs who don't have an ideological.
-- in this and want to make money by having the correct predictions.
If everybody is predicting and we predicted conservatives as well that it's gonna be a blow to the economy huge flow will Barack Obama as president.
Knowing you -- -- he needs a strong economy he has any chance of reelection.
Actually allow the rates to two lead to jump that high and costs have doubled their.
Of course not it's in his interest -- facing political interest to ultimately keeps the rates where they are that was the -- that Republicans had.
They never used it okay let's not talk about the the philosophical differences but the real politics on the ground where is.
We're of the votes are they they -- to block this thing in the house is there a problem is there a hiccup.
-- well by them that -- that -- newspaper has done we have something over seventy hard nose on the democratic side.
Imposing the tax opposing the package and there's still much consternation about this.
Defeated members not wanting this to be their last vote a sellout at epic proportions now are people like Charles selling conservatives.
That they should vote no yeah.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- I guess there -- at if you look at.
Mike Pence of Indiana Michelle Bachmann of Minnesota and different -- you know obviously senator Thurmond of South Carolina different people who are leaders and the Tea Party movement coming out and saying this is a bad deal.
You you really you know you -- you're looking at.
A potential problem on the Republican side as well I think there you know.
Looking to take care of that right now I know they were new members who don't get to vote.
But who were here pressuring.
Completing two John Boehner let this be our first vote you -- let's ride to the rescue so this is an interesting.
You know it and there are tremendous.
Pressures upon him.
-- -- to move this vote and I and I don't know that they have the votes I we think that they're going to what we've seen is a little bit of ships though.
On the democratic side at least in the comments of the current majority leader Steny Hoyer.
Who last week when he met with reporters talked about how just how disappointing this was.
And how they really didn't know what was gonna happen and now.
He's so impressed by the large margin of the senate voted today hey hey -- guns.
That he sang with momentum like this you know this really is gonna move this you know move this ahead.
This is a huge you know rarely -- -- will agree at this level on something so important and this is really.
I see it even there's congressman Peter Welch of Vermont as you know that's our back.
He said it was -- -- incomplete for signatures he was gonna you don't burn down a building over this and -- now he's saying how well it's a done deal also.
-- I I really to find minutes they I have no idea what's gonna happen on either side I just know that there's.
There -- some serious -- -- -- don't -- and -- -- some real you know real challenge for about the Democrats and the Republicans well they should be shocked if this thing went down yet.
Shocked I think it won't go down I think I think if the White House Nissan and they will do everything.
They need to to get a pass because it would be such a devastating problem at this point for the president given what he said.
Pretty good on but let me offer to conversations that had in the past three days of tests and tests find the power Charles.
As we'll call -- one of them was with the Republican on the house side.
-- -- and -- just give -- a rough whip -- where do you think you guys are -- -- taxi and -- -- really wanna get in the numbers but let me tell you that.
I would say that we lost two dozen.
House Republicans after Charles piece ran on Friday saying that this deal would be a win for President Obama.
The second -- -- sort of another few after this him -- Special Report.
Probably yeah probably wouldn't have -- -- dozen red apple in fact this could in -- go to because it back.
He -- Bill Clinton did they did he make up the two dozen on the democratic side for the final witness that's a very good question I haven't checked on the democratic side.
But the second conversation I had was a conversation had today without a member of the house was part of the house report Republican Study Committee was a group of 100.
The most conservative Republicans come outside and had a meeting today he and -- they didn't.
Discussed the issue can this person who came out of the meeting thinking that.
The 100 or so members of the Republican senate committee -- opposed.
It's only thirty of the most conservative Republicans the house likely favor a steel which is I mean I don't think that -- the overall deal.
But it's interesting to see how -- Conservative support has bled.
Over the past week.
Time last word on this flight is -- no benefit but -- the view I had -- -- again it gives you an example of how when you write in this business who you talk.
And -- you shoot an arrow in the -- have no idea where it's gonna last.
From all the abuse I've gotten from the conservative blog for my colleagues starting with Steve on down.
Upon those who universally think I've lost my mind.
The impression I have -- I haven't -- a single Republican to oppose it but I have galvanized dozens of Democrats.
By the Clinton -- and Steny Hoyer apparently quoted me twice in his speech he made the National Press Club.
I think of those -- zombie eyed Liberal Democrats who had no idea how they had won all of a sudden we're.
Have to think twice you know if conservatives -- they know that -- with a good deal for them.
Perhaps -- there's something in this enough for them.
I think if I had any influence -- -- -- to help it can pass so maybe I should retire since obviously everything I do it definitely.
Companies did that -- pat Howard Dean was talking fiscal restraint the other day and it's amazing estranged.
Bedfellows -- OK let's turn to the omnibus spending bill a couple of people have waited and Scott Jensen and Wisconsin said what would actually shut down.
If the government shutdown.
Well if you go back to 95.
When it was shut down.
You remember there were pictures there was cameras at Yellowstone and other places where.
The family and at Christmas vacation had put all their money away are you if you love their family and they've got one family has just had found -- -- I yeah.
If it's a vacation this Redskins did they saved up -- year that they kid took a paper route.
I thought they meant staying in motel was sleeping in the van they arriving here Yellowstone and the gates are closed.
And irritated they did did get into -- you remember that you know I -- and as we could Gingrich that stole Christmas.
I would if I Republican I would just have an allergy to any shutdown if you're not empower.
Says John Boehner.
She doesn't think this is that the Harry Reid.
Drama -- this.
A lot of feeling out of -- says wouldn't shut down their furlough.
When that -- -- cut spending shut it down for a week.
-- -- local governments always do if you cut taxes whether they shut down.
The fire department the police department and the DMV's.
-- nobody gets a license as opposed to the thousands of bureaucrats in the back room.
Who who end up working.
At the same time it's what you always do have to fire house first -- -- have been the best and the greatest thing when this happens is.
They first say that the people who can stay -- Martha nonessential government employs.
-- their nonessential government employees -- why do we have you ever ask god asks.
How in the omnibus.
Bill originate in the senate I understood to have -- come from -- house first.
Here's the deal the vehicle that they're putting it in.
Came from the house the continuing resolution that the house passed last week to fund the government for a year was essentially this empty vehicle to keep spending at the same.
But the senate is going to do correct me -- from absolutely correct is stuff this thing in the continuing resolution.
And then send it back to the house to be -- -- Look again I mean with it with some Republicans opposed to nervous Democrats up in 2012 increasingly opposed.
And the administration opposed.
I really can't just have no idea how this makes it -- I -- I'm just eager to see the votes don't know anyway has said he's told Reid and McConnell -- and away from.
Hawaii has said that he believes that the most of that.
I now this maybe before the the uproar about it before got a lot of coverage.
But he said he's done -- kept you know I I'll I.
I mean you've got the bonds of the kids moms of the world -- he if that -- almost yet the who else Collins and Snowe or and that bill what -- they vote against -- wanted to know why I I hate.
I'm an MB I know Voinovich actually is going to support any is opposed -- -- deal.
I hate I -- like -- said there is an argument for earmarks and and I and I I really understand.
I just believe with the pressure building from the outside against the government against the tax cut deal from conservatives.
-- there's going to be a lot of pressure on a lot of members even with earmarks -- that bill.
To vote against the bell and and like I said I don't think that Claire McCaskill of Missouri relaxed Democrat that we.
She's saying I just can't.
I mean things can change quickly and with the administration saying.
Let's hear -- -- say that I think they need to say had a public -- -- -- the big difference here between attacks deal.
And the -- is the ominous is all -- -- this is this is 100%.
Debt that we're getting if they do it this way and as ice is set it didn't in the show.
It will raise because of did what committee chairman can do it will raise the level of discretionary spending.
That sets a new base which basically means you're gonna be spending a ton more money every year going -- lost our actual cuts.
I think that you know.
Did the tax -- deal whatever you might think about it.
There are at least tax cuts and -- at least you're allowing some people to keep their own money.
Who wouldn't otherwise be able to if it didn't pass so I think there's a big distinction and it's been interesting to us to listen to people talk to people including people in Washington.
Who are confused about that -- Who who you don't think one -- the other.
Okay let me read something march 11 2000 -- President Obama.
I'm signing an imperfect omnibus bill because it's necessary for the ongoing functions of government have a we have a lot more work to do we can't have congress.
Bogged down at this critical juncture in our economic recovery but I also view this as a departure point for a far more reaching -- a more far reaching change.
In my discussions with congress we've talked about the need for further reforms.
To ensure that the budget process inspires trust and confidence instead of cynicism.
So I believe as we move forward from here we can come together around principles that prevent the abuse of earmarks.
President Obama march 11 2000 not.
Why do you think everybody -- cynical because they've heard that.
And you have to two years and exactly repetition of that -- -- have a budget coming out of the house for the first time I think -- -- -- 1988.
They were so afraid of even having a budget.
And -- you you're getting -- with -- less consideration a larger huge bill which is on the doorstep -- -- on the eve of Christmas.
To get -- to capacity you can be sure nobody has read I think that's the reason why you guys have congress have a 13% approval -- -- and just for the debris.
History and I I find the history of this on -- I wrote a piece about this.
Back in July for the weekly standard and spent a lot of time with Paul Ryan and Jim Jordan from Ohio talking about this.
What I think is important to understand is that this was a choice Democrats chose not to pass a budget.
They didn't want to do that because they didn't want to make.
Moderates who weren't likely to be vulnerable November.
Have to defend what was likely to be seven to 10% overall increase in the deficit.
So you have them take this vote in favor of a fight if they were gonna have to say okay -- voted to increase the deficit in any huge play.
They were forced him to do that so they knew the entire time that this would be taken up in a lame duck.
In an -- -- and this their decently.
Suggested forcing -- creating a problem on purpose they did this on purpose so that they would have to have this emergency solution.
So that you could do the kinds of things that you do.
In a crisis.
I want to talk real quickly be about the schedule here.
Sender demand from South Carolina has said he wants the ominous red on the senate floor 19124.
Pages that could take anywhere from 35 to forty hours.
This is supposed to come up tomorrow starting tomorrow that takes us into almost Saturday.
The government shut down happens at midnight OK let's say the government shuts down for a day where are we again.
How long this lasts and how can everything happened I mean the clock the calendar is read.
Somebody tried to end it he's read just an idle threat to to hold congress until January 4.
Or is this really now.
Should I don't think so not a threat because I think it -- that meant majority -- immensely frustrated over these filibusters as you know and both I don't think the house cares what I don't think Nancy Pelosi and house Democrats care what happens when we went -- but over on the senate side.
And in the administration there is a huge push ratify the start treaty and to pass a standalone -- -- tell.
That is not a jet passed the house to that wrecked and then and there -- Joe Lieberman trying to convince us have a dozen senate side.
That is no small bag of potatoes to President Obama can come to the -- -- union say.
I got everything in his tax cut package I kept rates the same.
You know we hope this is gonna help the economy and to you I'm employed people I extend your insurance benefits and the -- -- benefits of healing I.
I am I I ratified this arms control agreement and I lifted.
The Don't Ask Don't Tell policy -- -- I really believe that.
There is a desperate need among senate Democrats -- the leadership and the and the administration my -- and I don't know if Nancy Pelosi counts herself in this group.
To try to make the most of the remaining time on the clock and the -- except I'm saying so look at the clock so if you have -- in the senate you have to have certain amount of hours that's exactly right -- yes -- a certain amount of hours for debate.
And you look at the clock and you go into Christmas Eve okay but then he's talking about the keep in congress in session after Christmas and all the way past new years right and I.
I just can't tell you that that's -- I can't tell you that's fake I mean I think he -- it because.
-- see if he sees that he I don't think he has the votes on the dream act but I think if he sees the votes on -- season notes on -- -- -- NASA tell.
They are gonna do what they can to get him.
Admit the fact is repeat it is it's not.
Mean the house and -- the Liberal Democrats in the house that they could waste of time on this estate tax protest vote and and and their madam president I'm sure they wanted to -- But if you look at it really is Republican filibusters that are pushing off the clock over on the senate side which is where -- ratify treaties.
I I I I don't I think that Harry Reid -- does not hold up okay I got the Republican filibuster part and there are many more filibusters than there ever have been.
But -- -- we are in this position is this correct to say because of democratic scheduling of the congressional calendar it's absolutely the case is okay so.
-- really Republican filibusters at this late hour CNN.
Did you not -- not pass it they're spending bills and they are in a situation Dominick finds dozens attrition because.
People you know we all know that people didn't want to take votes on Don't Ask Don't Tell repeal or anything -- for their election.
So what I understand that but I when you say is Harry Reid really gonna.
Bring everyone parent the twentieth of December I would say I guess he doesn't I I don't know that's a general.
But I think it back if we wanna read as an event that earmark the Communist being you know that that -- urging the president to veto the omnibus on everything that they think that says.
Isn't really that's a really interesting -- administration has a plan in the end policy would any other government going it was really on -- with a -- shut down.
How does it.
And using get it through the senate when the CR continuing resolution I think this defender I after the rough over the weekend and all that means that -- what -- I'm just imagine that day.
If -- I can remember when when President Obama and march of 09 signed that thing.
I can remember I wrote a column saying he should veto it and stand with John McCain and Tom covered and say I hate pork.
But he didn't he didn't because he hadn't had health care through and everything else through and it shows just beside himself with with house Democrats.
It was a mistake and I knew -- at the time he gave a lot of talk about fixing the system and I actually remember at the time.
The house majority leader -- were saying something like we have the power of the person we don't need to hear this from the president or something.
I'm so and they -- exerting you know there there are jurisdiction over the matter -- I think that if you look at.
The fact that they're at the secretly quietly opposed the -- and that John Boehner the incoming speakers putting all this pressure on them.
To -- please Mr.
President you must veto this and has.
I mean it and it means look.
He doesn't care about the house Democrats anymore he could veto that and -- would probably make -- -- you know revealed that -- you're doing in the Famer.
So I think it still it was a double -- well there begs some employment and Nicosia are behind the scenes -- a dozen high profile Vito.
A couple of questions do you do people typing in wanna know who wrote the omnibus bill it starts in the Appropriations Committee and it's -- Couple year process actually so they're pulling stuff that over the appropriations committee's actions over the last year and a half really.
That's who wrote an appropriate to rush.
And wish that -- from basically everybody everyone why does every -- and a new government right exactly.
Secondly people want to know why they can't read it right now they're gonna start starting tomorrow I think they'll start reading it on the senate floor.
Let's see if our staff can put to put the link him to the actual on this bill on our home page and people can read it it's.
Unreadable and just tell you that it's actually legislated it eased the -- and it refers back to other bills and it's painful to go throughout I want payment.
Need -- if you read it you can go right off the drugs don't get it on the website okay charged him.
And the politics so I think personal interest in and that's because if you're President Obama and you get you've got to find a way I think heading into 2012.
It to present yourself as not to laugh -- -- that you happen for two years.
There is not a better opportunity for him do this.
Does that not then on this bill and he can basically he could think about the speech to get weather sustaining the union which is -- really interest in way to look at this.
For just a speech announcing he's Vito.
He could -- veto threat yet he could identify the pork projects by.
Themselves and people's heads will be -- wait what this guy who spent all this money in the -- -- money on health care could do it without fail it would be I think it would be such a smart move for him to do this and we know this is where he wanted to be.
As you read in 2000 not so if John -- urging him to veto it.
I think John Maynard actually declared him a favor.
-- I think he did the move.
To the center.
With the tax cut deal that's -- he's he just won 81 to nineteen.
Stimulus who -- he didn't have a single.
Republican in the house three senators Republican senators in the senate.
Here he gets 81 senators took the high end bill he reached across the aisle he learns his lesson.
He did charming you know he extended tax cuts everybody's happy and employed or happy everybody got something out of this you know very dental end up being -- paid by our.
Grandchildren about it by fusion neck and others.
But to him that to me is what if if he makes a comeback as I think he will.
And if he wins the presidential election -- reelection which I think he probably has a slight.
More than 5050 chance now the date if there's a revival is going to be your last Monday when he announced the -- Okay very quickly we're going over time -- down the line.
Yes or no passes or doesn't pass tax rate compromise.
Tax rate compromise will pass the house for sure Hanks and -- Omnibus spending bill.
I think they end up with CR in both houses and that keeps the government -- I don't -- to comparison.
To similar start down here start.
Presentation on them to probably too important people John McCain and potentially -- but I would say probably taxes percent.
And they got a good and go to test vote today they got nine about Republicans and has -- I think they can call an office.
McCain will crusty I think and supported and it will pass by exactly.
Sixty -- we Don't Ask Don't Tell standalone.
It will pass if there's time.
And I think they're probably will be time.
Yes they have the votes for -- -- sound how they have their they have -- Republicans.
I think they have the votes I don't know -- -- -- time I think there might not be time limited at a time for a start -- finally time for any of that Greg -- dream -- if there's not time for Don't Ask Don't -- -- -- -- yeah -- they can -- disable -- -- and am now don't have the -- -- how many emails I -- about dream -- -- probably get.
I get hung.
-- -- because it's so egregious because it's such -- -- It's it's many amnesty it's I mean you could think of any analogy you want it's the beginning of -- rolling amnesties.
And it needs to be addressed it really hasn't had a national debate and that's -- people are outraged try to.
This morning we're looking at the calendar doesn't have the votes and doesn't have the time -- he heard it here.
Thank you for watching -- report on line Suisse will see you -- of course every night.
6 PM eastern time and we'll see you next Wednesday right here control room a little about.
Thank you --
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